Diorys Guerrero — OGILVIE

Diorys Guerrero P FCL Cardinals

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.9%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	11	11	37	176	36	21	0	100%	3.4	13.9%	14.9%	-1.0%	0.0%	6.51	3.81	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	11	11	37	176	36	21	0	100%	3.4	20.5%	11.9%	8.5%	0.0%	6.51	2.86	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	10	9	46	181	54	9	1	90%	4.6	20.3%	6.2%	14.1%	0.7%	2.56	2.57	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	10	9	46	181	54	9	1	90%	4.6	29.8%	5.0%	24.9%	0.6%	2.56	1.61	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	5	32	147	39	21	1	38%	2.5	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	1.0%	3.66	3.86	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	5	32	147	39	21	1	38%	2.5	26.5%	14.3%	12.2%	0.7%	3.66	3.04	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	15	0	17	92	20	18	1	0%	1.1	14.8%	24.5%	-9.7%	1.5%	8.10	5.78	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	15	0	17	92	20	18	1	0%	1.1	14.8%	24.5%	-9.7%	1.5%	8.10	5.78	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	15	0	17	92	20	18	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	19.6%	2.2%	1.1%	8.10	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	STL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.9%	12.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	3	3	20	84	20	11	3	100%	6.7	23.2%	12.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	23.2%	12.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	36	8	5	1	100%	8.6	23.2%	12.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	187	117	23	100%	6.0	23.2%	12.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		49	25	132	596	102	81	4	51%	2.7	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	0.7%	4.65	3.75	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	38	200	905	156	123	6	51%	2.7	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	0.7%	4.65	3.75	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Diorys Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.9%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.75	23.1%	10.6%	20	-0.08	—	—	—
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	81
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	73
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	69
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	69
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	69
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	68
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	67
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	67
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	66
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	66
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	66
Bryan Warzek L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	22.1%	15.0%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	1.91	138	66
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	65
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	64
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	63
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	63
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	63
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	63
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	63
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	63