Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 8.53 | 2.96 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 8.53 | 2.94 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 39 | 0 | 64 | 287 | 86 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 4.08 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 39 | 0 | 64 | 287 | 86 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.0% | 10.8% | 19.2% | 1.4% | 4.08 | 2.68 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 35 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 61 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 4.09 | 3.94 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 35 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 61 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.2% | 15.6% | 11.6% | 0.4% | 4.09 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 74 | 319 | 77 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 1.0% | 3.41 | 3.13 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 74 | 319 | 77 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 0.9% | 3.41 | 2.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 10 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 21.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 7.59 | 3.68 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 81 | 346 | 73 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 4.75 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 0 | 78 | 330 | 67 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.02 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 87 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 0 | 206 | 911 | 193 | 120 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 4.16 | 3.53 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 0 | 200 | 886 | 187 | 117 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 4.16 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chazz Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 2.2% | — | 4.40 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 95 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 88 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 87 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 87 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 86 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.49 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.30 | 4.19 | 151 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 84 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 84 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 84 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 84 |
| Adam Kolarek L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 1.4% | .281 | 2.60 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 183 | -1.14 | 2.20 | 504 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 142 | 83 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.7% | .312 | 4.62 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.19 | 3.43 | 134 | 83 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 83 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 83 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 0.92 | 4.35 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Cory Gearrin ('19) | 4 | 57 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 0.79 | 3.42 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |