Ty Van Dyke — OGILVIE

Ty Van Dyke P Peoria Chiefs

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 255 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%21.2%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$37M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$17M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	2.4%	2.57	3.88	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	2.4%	2.57	3.88	—
2025	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	21.8%	5.5%	16.4%	1.8%	2.57	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	20	104	434	107	43	11	87%	4.5	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.72	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	20	104	434	107	43	11	87%	4.5	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	7	7	33	124	35	8	2	100%	4.7	28.2%	6.5%	21.8%	1.6%	1.64	2.42	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	STL	16	13	71	310	72	35	9	81%	4.4	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.9%	5.60	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	105	445	98	33	13	100%	5.3	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	108	456	103	33	13	100%	5.7	22.5%	7.2%	15.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.09	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	109	461	106	33	13	100%	5.7	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.04	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	109	461	106	33	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	2.9%	4.05	4.02	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	454	105	32	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.1%	15.9%	3.0%	4.06	4.06	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	441	101	32	13	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.1%	4.11	4.14	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	421	96	32	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.21	4.27	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	94	396	88	31	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.36	4.45	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	87	369	81	30	13	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	3.6%	4.54	4.65	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	81	341	73	29	13	100%	6.2	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.9%	4.74	4.88	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	52	220	48	16	6	100%	5.2	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	2.7%	4.12	4.07	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	75	317	71	23	9	100%	5.8	22.5%	7.2%	15.3%	2.7%	4.04	3.98	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	86	27	10	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.93	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	95	401	93	28	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.94	3.91	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	94	29	11	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.1%	15.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.95	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	96	405	93	30	12	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	2.8%	3.99	4.02	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	93	393	89	30	12	100%	5.8	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	3.0%	4.09	4.15	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	88	372	83	29	12	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.23	4.32	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	77	29	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	3.4%	4.40	4.51	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	70	28	12	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.6%	4.59	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	845	3569	805	268	105	100%	5.9	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.12	3.77	+11.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	63	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.12	3.77	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		28	25	118	489	90	53	15	89%	4.2	18.4%	10.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.63	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	42	200	831	153	90	26	89%	4.2	18.4%	10.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.63	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Van Dyke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	21.2%	7.7%	3.0%	—	4.10	22.5%	15.2%	322	-0.21	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	87
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	85
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	78
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	78
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	77
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	77
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	76
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	76
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	92	22.5%	7.5%	1.22	4.23
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01