Ty Van Dyke

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 255 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#555ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ASTL	5	5	14	2.57	2.96	21.8%	5.5%	—	K 16.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.88
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	20	104	4.34	3.66	24.7%	9.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.93	4.93	19.2%	11.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	6	6	33	4.64	4.58	20.3%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	48	4.51	4.45	20.9%	9.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsBryce Conley (age 23) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	2.4%	2.57	3.88	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	2.4%	2.57	3.88	—
2025	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	14	55	12	3	1	100%	2.8	21.8%	5.5%	16.4%	1.8%	2.57	2.96	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	104	434	107	43	11	87%	4.5	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.72	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	104	434	107	43	11	87%	4.5	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.72	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	104	434	107	43	11	87%	4.5	24.7%	9.9%	14.7%	2.5%	4.34	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	11.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	78	328	67	33	10	100%	5.5	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.76	4.70	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	302	63	29	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.57	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	296	63	28	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.56	4.53	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	68	287	61	27	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	65	273	57	26	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.61	4.65	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	252	53	25	8	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	54	228	47	23	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	33	139	28	14	4	100%	5.5	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.58	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	48	203	42	19	6	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.45	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	50	22	7	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	52	23	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	51	23	7	100%	5.7	21.1%	9.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.49	4.53	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	47	22	7	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	43	21	7	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	356	1504	314	145	44	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.17	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	81	25	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.17	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		28	25	118	489	90	53	15	89%	4.2	18.4%	10.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.63	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	42	200	831	153	90	26	89%	4.2	18.4%	10.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.63	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 71 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.23 (+1.06)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.770	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.150	12.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 33 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.45 (+1.03)K% 28.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.23%	—	×0.740	20.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.180	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 14 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.88 (+0.94)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.82%	—	×0.740	16.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.180	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.973	×1.300	2.43%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Van Dyke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.2%	11.0%	3.1%	—	4.60	20.8%	11.2%	220	-0.33	—	—	—
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	91
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	91
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	89
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	88
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	88
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	87
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	85
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	85
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	85
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	20.6%	9.8%	1.21	4.70
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*