Trevor Harrison

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP49ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	17	16	73	3.34	2.67	29.4%	8.8%	—	K 21.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.03
2025	19	MIX2 levels	22	22	107	2.78	2.97	22.7%	11.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.79
2026	20	A+TB	23	23	98	4.98	4.75	29.3%	10.6%	—	K 22.6% · BB 12.2% · FIP 6.20
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	26	26	127	5.23	5.23	21.8%	12.8%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	13	13	66	4.95	4.85	22.7%	11.4%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTB	19	19	101	4.74	4.64	23.4%	10.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control45Command45FB velo56

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsAaron Davenport (age 22) · Patrick Reilly (age 22) · Josh Grosz (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%21.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP127

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	1.7%	3.34	2.67	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	0.7%	2.78	2.97	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	29.3%	10.6%	18.8%	5.0%	4.98	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	26	26	127	536	117	69	19	100%	4.9	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	3.6%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	133	563	128	64	20	100%	5.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.4%	3.5%	5.00	4.90	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	138	584	137	61	20	100%	5.3	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.4%	4.79	4.69	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	142	599	143	59	20	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.55	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	144	606	147	58	20	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.3%	4.54	4.47	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	144	606	148	58	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.49	4.45	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	141	597	146	58	20	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.4%	4.49	4.49	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	137	579	141	57	20	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.57	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	131	553	133	55	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	3.6%	4.64	4.70	+0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	123	520	123	54	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.8%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	485	113	52	20	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	4.0%	4.96	5.08	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	66	279	63	32	9	100%	5.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.4%	3.4%	4.95	4.85	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	101	426	100	45	14	100%	5.3	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	118	498	119	49	16	100%	5.6	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.2%	4.59	4.50	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	127	536	130	52	17	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.42	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	131	553	135	53	18	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.40	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	131	553	135	53	18	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	128	540	131	53	18	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	124	524	126	52	18	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	3.5%	4.59	4.65	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	117	494	117	51	18	100%	5.8	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.7%	4.72	4.82	+0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	109	460	107	49	18	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.9%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	198	1152	4866	1163	489	166	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.4%	4.61	4.23	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	85	29	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.4%	4.61	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		62	61	277	1152	231	139	37	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	831	166	100	27	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	21.8%	12.8%	3.6%	—	4.71	23.3%	12.8%	413	-0.52	—	—	—
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	89
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	89
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	87
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	85
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	85
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	84
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84
Ben Kudrna R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP	5.08	19.1%	12.2%	3.7%	.302	4.25	18.7%	7.6%	105	-0.83	4.22	402	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	84
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	83
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	134	23.7%	10.3%	1.36	4.73
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Mike Norris ('75-'90, 8 WAR*)	5.6	125	21.2%*	10.4%*	1.18*	4.40*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49