Justin Lebron — OGILVIE

Justin LebronSS Dayton Dragons

Age 22 R/R A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .272 / .373

PA90

HR3

K%29

BB%6

ISO155

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	104	96	28	5	0	8	8	28	0	6	2	292	346	594	940	302	333	27	8	406	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	104	98	23	4	0	6	6	36	0	6	2	235	279	459	738	224	293	35	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	104	98	23	4	0	6	6	36	0	6	2	235	279	459	738	224	304	35	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	104	96	28	5	0	8	8	28	0	6	2	292	346	594	940	302	333	27	8	406	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	104	97	23	4	0	6	6	36	0	6	2	237	279	464	743	227	293	35	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	104	97	23	4	0	6	6	36	0	6	2	237	279	464	743	227	293	35	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	214	198	44	8	1	7	13	61	1	6	1	221	274	376	650	155	279	29	6	288	81	-5	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	35%	162	150	33	6	1	5	10	46	1	4	1	223	278	381	658	157	281	28	6	291	83	-3	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	46%	279	257	57	10	1	9	18	78	2	8	2	225	281	385	665	159	282	28	6	294	85	-5	+1	+2	+3	+6	0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	352	323	74	13	2	12	23	97	3	10	2	227	283	387	670	160	283	28	7	296	87	-6	+1	+3	+4	+8	1.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	399	367	83	15	2	13	26	109	3	11	3	228	285	388	673	161	283	27	7	298	88	-6	+1	+3	+4	+9	1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	422	388	88	16	2	14	28	115	3	12	3	228	286	387	673	159	283	27	7	298	88	-6	+1	+4	+5	+9	1.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	434	399	90	16	2	14	29	119	3	11	3	226	284	382	666	156	282	27	7	295	86	-7	+1	+3	+5	+9	1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	433	398	90	16	2	14	29	120	3	11	3	224	281	377	658	153	281	28	7	292	84	-8	+1	+2	+5	+9	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	429	395	87	15	2	13	28	120	3	10	3	221	278	369	647	148	280	28	7	287	81	-10	+1	+2	+5	+9	0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	419	386	83	15	1	12	27	119	3	9	3	217	273	360	633	143	277	28	6	282	77	-12	+1	+1	+4	+9	0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	35%	56	53	11	2	0	2	3	16	0	2	0	226	280	392	672	166	282	29	5	297	83	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	46%	129	119	28	5	1	5	8	36	1	4	1	229	284	396	679	167	284	28	6	300	85	-2	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	182	167	39	7	1	7	12	50	1	5	1	230	286	398	684	168	284	27	7	302	87	-3	+1	+2	+2	+4	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	216	198	46	8	1	8	14	59	2	6	1	231	288	399	687	169	284	27	6	303	88	-3	+1	+2	+2	+5	0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	229	210	48	8	1	8	15	62	2	6	1	231	289	398	686	167	284	27	7	303	88	-3	+1	+2	+2	+5	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	236	216	50	9	1	8	16	65	2	6	2	229	287	393	680	164	284	28	7	301	86	-4	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	230	211	48	8	1	8	15	64	2	6	1	227	284	387	671	161	282	28	7	297	84	-4	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	244	224	50	9	1	8	16	68	2	6	2	224	280	380	660	156	281	28	7	292	81	-6	+0	+1	+3	+5	0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	229	211	46	8	1	7	15	65	1	5	2	220	276	370	646	150	278	28	7	286	77	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1751	1609	366	64	8	61	114	485	13	46	11	227	284	391	675	163	285	28	7	298	84	-33	+5	+11	+19	+38	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	136	24	3	23	42	180	5	17	4	228	284	394	678	166	285	28	6	298	84	-12	+2	+4	+7	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3523	3245	726	129	15	115	229	985	25	94	26	224	280	379	659	155	283	28	7	293	84	-65	+8	+22	+37	+74	7.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	134	24	3	21	42	182	5	17	5	224	280	379	659	155	283	28	6	293	84	-12	+2	+4	+7	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael A. Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,758 PA	5.7	3,758	108	128	232	288	380	+12	+64	13.3	12.9
/162	664	19	23	+2.1	+11.2	2.3	pk7: 13
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	3.3	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.1
/162	664	19	24	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.6	1,751	57	45	225	279	380	+19	+20	3.9	3.7
/162	664	22	17	+7.1	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Lebron (OGILVIE)	22	20→38	40→55	60→65	30	219/272/373	154	279	3	2	29%	6%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	47→55	50→55	58→55	37	238/275/402	164	298	17	19	26%	4%	88	+0.4	245/282/399	154	307	17	23	25%	4%	90	+0.6	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	38	49→50	54→50	37	197/258/345	148	285	17	14	36%	6%	69	-0.9	206/268/346	140	308	16	13	36%	7%	73	-0.6	188/254/312	124	285	15	12	37%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Everson Pereira 2023 · AA	22	47→49	52→55	54→50	39	232/288/405	173	334	20	16	36%	7%	93	+0.8	228/292/381	153	338	18	15	35%	7%	90	+0.6	220/292/370	150	322	19	15	35%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	43→51	47→50	51→60	39	215/265/348	133	294	15	16	31%	6%	72	-0.7	215/279/342	127	288	12	32	28%	7%	76	-0.4	232/299/362	129	300	10	41	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44	45	56→60	41	214/289/346	132	303	12	19	32%	7%	81	-0.1	204/281/321	117	287	12	34	31%	8%	72	-0.7	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	43→53	47→50	54→55	42	211/280/356	145	295	13	13	32%	7%	80	-0.2	239/287/369	130	297	11	16	22%	6%	84	+0.1	250/295/369	119	301	10	15	20%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Kevin Smith 2019 · A	23	43→45	48→55	53→50	36	219/261/365	146	296	16	15	31%	4%	74	-0.5	205/255/362	157	286	18	14	34%	6%	72	-0.7	209/261/367	157	281	19	15	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Tommy Troy 2024 · A	22	47→55	46→45	57→50	44	228/298/359	132	326	13	18	32%	8%	86	+0.3	223/292/336	113	299	10	17	27%	8%	79	-0.2	233/306/347	114	304	10	17	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	41→36	49→50	53→50	39	208/269/355	147	289	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.5	208/272/340	132	295	14	10	33%	6%	73	-0.6	202/272/344	143	283	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	38→47	50	49→45	40	199/259/356	156	271	17	9	33%	6%	72	-0.7	217/277/354	137	301	14	7	31%	7%	78	-0.3	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Max Wagner 2024 · AA	22	41→38	46→50	55→50	42	204/275/332	128	291	13	18	33%	8%	72	-0.7	195/261/317	122	302	13	12	37%	7%	63	-1.3	190/255/330	140	291	17	7	39%	7%	61	-0.9
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	48→53	49→55	54→55	43	235/299/383	148	333	16	17	33%	8%	93	+0.8	237/301/410	173	329	21	20	32%	8%	99	+1.3	233/299/410	177	319	22	24	33%	8%	97	+1.0
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	45→47	50	51→50	44	233/296/384	151	285	19	8	25%	7%	92	+0.7	222/293/367	145	291	16	5	28%	8%	86	+0.3	194/292/330	136	256	16	12	29%	11%	76	-0.3
✕Jack Brannigan 2024 · A	23	42	50	54→50	43	209/290/360	151	317	19	19	38%	9%	84	+0.2	195/271/346	151	282	18	14	36%	8%	74	-0.5	175/254/322	147	250	17	12	36%	8%	60	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps