Trey Gregory-Alford

Trey Gregory-Alford P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%16.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3045

CMD3550

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	14.4%	12.3%	2.2%	1.0%	2.86	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	14.4%	12.3%	2.2%	1.0%	2.86	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	20.7%	10.0%	10.6%	0.6%	2.86	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.54	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAA	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	1.8%	4.29	3.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	101	428	78	47	12	100%	4.8	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	2.7%	4.91	4.83	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	106	450	89	45	12	100%	5.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	2.7%	4.68	4.55	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	110	467	97	44	12	100%	5.3	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.6%	4.49	4.38	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	113	478	102	43	13	100%	5.7	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.6%	4.35	4.27	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	115	484	105	43	13	100%	5.7	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	2.6%	4.26	4.20	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	115	484	106	43	13	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	2.6%	4.21	4.18	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	477	104	42	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	110	463	101	42	13	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.27	4.30	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	95	41	13	100%	6.2	21.5%	9.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.43	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	415	88	40	13	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.6%	11.6%	3.1%	4.52	4.61	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	92	388	80	38	13	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.70	4.81	+0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	85	358	73	37	13	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.6%	4.90	5.04	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	50	211	39	23	6	100%	5.0	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	2.8%	4.94	4.86	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	78	329	65	33	9	100%	5.2	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.58	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	93	393	81	37	11	100%	5.5	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.7%	4.52	4.41	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	101	426	91	38	11	100%	5.6	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.30	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	105	443	96	39	12	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.23	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	107	452	99	40	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	2.7%	4.24	4.21	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	107	452	99	40	12	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	104	439	95	40	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.30	4.33	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	99	418	90	39	12	100%	6.2	21.5%	9.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.46	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	93	393	83	37	12	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.64	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	87	367	76	36	12	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.85	+0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	69	35	13	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.7%	4.94	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		192	192	1106	4670	984	439	135	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.10	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	178	79	24	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		40	37	177	770	121	95	14	92%	4.4	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	1.8%	3.65	4.29	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	868	137	107	15	92%	4.4	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	1.8%	3.65	4.29	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gregory-Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	16.8%	12.3%	2.8%	—	4.58	19.6%	9.5%	318	-0.55	—	—	—
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	92
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	88
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	87
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	87
Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	16.2%	10.6%	3.4%	.352	6.72	19.4%	7.9%	61	+1.79	2.54	203	87
Jacob Miller R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP	4.29	15.0%	11.9%	1.7%	.254	4.21	16.0%	5.5%	298	-0.08	3.85	358	87
Jose Romero R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP	4.54	13.9%	13.1%	1.8%	.302	8.19	13.0%	-11.0%	15	+3.65	4.47	117	86
Alex Scherff R 2018 · 5.19 FIP	20	SP	5.19	13.9%	10.0%	3.6%	.321	4.65	16.6%	5.2%	146	-0.54	3.07	291	86
Miguel De Jesus R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	20	SP	4.33	15.0%	11.2%	2.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	112	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	86
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	86
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Daison Acosta R 2019 · 4.73 FIP	20	SP	4.73	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	.295	3.58	17.2%	1.9%	71	-1.15	3.12	364	86
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	85
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	84
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	84
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	101	20.8%	9.6%	1.09	4.50
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32