Trey Gregory-Alford

Trey Gregory-Alford P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

+0.6 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.9 · 2033

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.3%

IP79

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2033

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	14.4%	12.3%	1.1%	2.86	4.03	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	2	2	10	38	9	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	14	14	79	332	71	33	9	21.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.6
2026 Total	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	89	370	80	34	9	21.6%	9.3%	2.5%	3.96	3.96	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	LAA	15	15	83	349	77	33	10	22.0%	9.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.32	+0.8
2028	22	MLB	LAA	20	20	109	459	105	40	12	22.9%	8.8%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+1.4
2029	23	MLB	LAA	24	24	133	561	132	47	15	23.5%	8.4%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+1.9
2030	24	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	642	155	52	17	24.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.00	3.93	+2.4
2031	25	MLB	LAA	30	30	166	701	171	56	18	24.4%	8.0%	2.6%	3.92	3.87	+2.7
2032	26	MLB	LAA	31	31	173	730	180	58	19	24.6%	8.0%	2.6%	3.88	3.85	+2.8
2033	27	MLB	LAA	32	32	176	742	183	60	20	24.7%	8.0%	2.6%	3.87	3.86	+2.9
2034	28	MLB	LAA	31	31	173	731	180	59	19	24.6%	8.1%	2.7%	3.88	3.89	+2.8
2035	29	MLB	LAA	31	31	169	714	175	58	19	24.5%	8.2%	2.7%	3.91	3.93	+2.6
2036	30	MLB	LAA	30	30	164	693	168	57	19	24.3%	8.2%	2.8%	3.96	3.99	+2.4
2037	31	MLB	LAA	29	29	158	669	161	56	19	24.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.02	4.07	+2.2
2038	32	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	642	153	55	19	23.8%	8.5%	2.9%	4.10	4.15	+2.0
2039	33	MLB	LAA	26	26	145	613	144	53	18	23.5%	8.7%	3.0%	4.19	4.25	+1.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			20	18	89	367	56	41	4	15.4%	11.3%	1.0%	2.54	3.77	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			45	41	200	828	126	92	9	15.4%	11.3%	1.0%	2.54	3.77	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gregory-Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.4%	10.1%	2.8%	—	4.13	22.9%	14.1%	324	-0.33	—	—	—
Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	91
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	90
Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	89
David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	20	SW	3.98	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.57	20.0%	7.3%	191	+0.59	3.98	319	88
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	88
Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	87
Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	87
William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	87
Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	22.9%	9.2%	2.8%	.267	5.28	12.7%	2.8%	100	+1.39	3.82	291	86
Adam Leverett R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	22	SW	3.43	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.47	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.04	3.43	305	86
Aaron Holiday R 2028 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	86
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	85
Craig Missigman R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	85
Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	20	SW	4.45	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.76	3.25	266	85
Frank German R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	85
Drew Anderson R 2028 · 3.39 FIP	22	SW	3.39	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.66	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.27	3.11	450	85
Peyton Remy R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	85
Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	85
Billy Corcoran R 2029 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.7	$25M	+$24M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.8	$27M	+$26M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.9	$29M	+$28M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.8	$28M	+$23M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+2.6	$27M	+$18M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$17M		$136M	+$119M