Trey Gregory-Alford

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#299ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	18	16	79	2.86	2.96	20.7%	10.0%	—	K 14.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.97
2026	20	ALAA	22	21	99	4.29	3.53	22.7%	10.4%	—	K 16.8% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.10	5.10	17.5%	12.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	7	7	36	4.88	4.77	19.3%	11.0%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	10	10	54	4.67	4.55	20.4%	10.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsJohn Klein (age 21) · Frank German (age 21) · Brett Wichrowski (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%17.5%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	14.4%	12.3%	2.2%	1.0%	2.86	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	14.4%	12.3%	2.2%	1.0%	2.86	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	20.7%	10.0%	10.6%	0.6%	2.86	2.96	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.54	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.54	—
2026	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	99	441	100	46	8	95%	4.5	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	1.8%	4.29	3.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	12.5%	5.1%	2.8%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	74	312	60	34	9	100%	4.9	19.3%	11.0%	8.3%	2.7%	4.85	4.74	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	74	312	64	31	8	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.64	4.52	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	74	312	66	30	8	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	68	285	61	26	8	100%	5.6	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.31	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	68	285	62	26	8	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.32	4.29	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	279	60	26	8	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.33	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	63	266	57	25	8	100%	6.3	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.41	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	247	52	24	7	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.0%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	53	224	47	22	7	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	48	201	41	21	7	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	36	152	29	17	4	100%	5.1	19.3%	11.0%	8.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.77	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	54	228	47	23	6	100%	5.4	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.55	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	61	258	54	24	7	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.42	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	54	23	7	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	2.7%	4.41	4.34	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	57	24	7	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.35	4.32	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	56	24	7	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.35	4.36	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	54	23	7	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.44	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	55	232	49	22	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.57	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	50	211	44	21	7	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.75	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	45	190	39	19	7	100%	5.6	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	544	2298	484	222	67	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.14	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	82	25	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		40	37	177	770	121	95	14	92%	4.4	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	1.8%	3.65	4.29	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	868	137	107	15	92%	4.4	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	1.8%	3.65	4.29	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 99 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.54 (+1.03)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.68%	—	×0.740	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.180	12.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 53 IPFIP 2.91 → 4.07 (+1.16)K% 21.4% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.680	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.250	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷0.873	×1.400	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 25 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.76 (+0.70)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.740	14.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.38%	—	×1.180	14.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gregory-Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.55	20.2%	10.1%	222	-0.55	—	—	—
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	92
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	89
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	88
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	88
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	88
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	87
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	87
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	87
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	86
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	86
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	86
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	86
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	85
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	85
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	85
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	65	20.6%	10.0%	1.10	4.58
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Kevin Gregg ('15)	3.6	65	21.0%	10.5%	0.97	4.24
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*