Trey Gregory-Alford

Trey Gregory-Alford P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%16.8%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3045

CMD3550

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	14.4%	12.3%	2.2%	1.1%	2.86	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	16	79	329	68	33	2	89%	4.4	20.7%	10.0%	10.6%	0.6%	2.86	2.96	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	15	67	300	72	28	6	100%	4.4	17.8%	11.0%	6.7%	2.6%	4.46	4.42	+0.2
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	12	12	55	233	39	27	6	100%	4.6	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	2.7%	5.04	5.04	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	122	533	111	55	12	—	—	20.9%	10.4%	10.4%	2.3%	4.73	4.72	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAA	12	12	58	244	45	26	7	100%	4.8	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	2.7%	4.88	4.80	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	LAA	12	12	61	257	51	26	7	100%	5.1	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.65	4.53	+0.0
2029	23	MLB	LAA	12	12	63	266	56	25	7	100%	5.3	20.9%	9.4%	11.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.36	+0.2
2030	24	MLB	LAA	12	12	65	273	59	25	7	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.6%	4.34	4.26	+0.3
2031	25	MLB	LAA	11	11	66	277	61	24	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	2.6%	4.25	4.19	+0.4
2032	26	MLB	LAA	11	11	66	277	61	24	7	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.6%	4.20	4.17	+0.4
2033	27	MLB	LAA	11	11	64	272	60	24	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.21	4.21	+0.3
2034	28	MLB	LAA	10	10	63	264	58	24	7	100%	6.3	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.8%	4.26	4.29	+0.2
2035	29	MLB	LAA	10	10	60	252	55	23	7	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.42	+0.1
2036	30	MLB	LAA	9	9	56	237	51	23	7	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.60	-0.0
2037	31	MLB	LAA	9	9	52	221	46	22	7	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.80	-0.2
2038	32	MLB	LAA	8	8	48	205	42	21	7	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.6%	4.89	5.03	-0.3
2027	21	MLB	LAA	6	6	28	118	22	13	3	100%	4.7	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	2.7%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	LAA	9	9	44	186	37	18	5	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.6%	4.62	4.50	+0.0
2029	23	MLB	LAA	10	10	53	224	47	21	6	100%	5.3	20.9%	9.4%	11.5%	2.6%	4.44	4.33	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	LAA	10	10	58	245	53	22	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.6%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2031	25	MLB	LAA	10	10	60	253	55	22	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	2.6%	4.22	4.16	+0.3
2032	26	MLB	LAA	10	10	61	258	57	23	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.6%	4.17	4.14	+0.3
2033	27	MLB	LAA	10	10	61	258	57	23	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.6%	4.18	4.18	+0.3
2034	28	MLB	LAA	10	10	59	249	55	22	7	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.7%	4.23	4.26	+0.2
2035	29	MLB	LAA	10	10	57	241	52	22	7	100%	5.7	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.39	+0.1
2036	30	MLB	LAA	9	9	53	224	48	21	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.57	-0.0
2037	31	MLB	LAA	8	8	50	211	44	21	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.77	-0.1
2038	32	MLB	LAA	8	8	46	194	40	20	7	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.5%	4.86	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			110	110	632	2667	568	250	75	100%	5.7	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.03	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	180	79	24	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.03	+3.2
Career	—			33	31	145	629	101	73	12	94%	4.4	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	1.8%	3.59	4.23	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			45	43	200	866	139	101	16	94%	4.4	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	1.8%	3.59	4.23	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gregory-Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	16.8%	11.8%	2.8%	—	4.56	19.8%	9.7%	182	-0.51	—	—	—
John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	94
Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	248	89
Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	16.2%	10.6%	3.4%	.352	6.69	19.4%	7.9%	61	+1.76	2.54	203	88
Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	20	SP	5.21	16.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.344	5.39	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.18	4.01	363	88
Cade Kuehler R 2028 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP	4.21	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	6.79	14.5%	2.4%	73	+2.58	4.21	123	87
Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.98	18.8%	7.8%	255	-1.00	2.91	388	86
Archie Bradley R 2028 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.18	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.18	2.25	570	86
Miguel De Jesus R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	20	SP	4.33	15.0%	11.2%	2.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	112	86
Alex Scherff R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	20	SP	5.37	13.9%	10.0%	4.0%	.321	4.55	16.6%	5.2%	146	-0.82	3.17	291	86
Jose Romero R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP	4.54	13.9%	13.1%	1.8%	.302	8.19	13.0%	-11.0%	15	+3.65	4.47	117	85
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	85
Daison Acosta R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	20	SP	4.80	15.4%	13.1%	2.5%	.295	3.58	17.2%	1.9%	71	-1.22	3.12	339	85
Frank German R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	85
Henry Williams R 2027 · 5.43 FIP	21	SP	5.43	16.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.271	4.77	16.7%	6.5%	293	-0.66	4.06	360	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	85
Reid Schaller R 2028 · 5.22 FIP	22	SP	5.22	16.3%	13.8%	3.2%	.241	4.48	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.74	3.49	186	85
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	17.0%	11.2%	1.7%	.267	4.96	15.7%	4.7%	161	+0.96	3.95	250	85
Michael Dominguez R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	20	SP	4.08	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.64	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.56	3.82	383	85
Ethan Dorchies R 2025 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	16.2%	9.9%	3.5%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	154	85
Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	60	20.8%	9.6%	1.10	4.50
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67