Brailer Guerrero

RF Charleston RiverDogs
Age 21 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1374ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKTB126.330/.452/.46621382—.225/.317/.297
202519A/INTL2 orgs249.230/.324/.36461157—.212/.284/.328
202620ATB206.215/.335/.3435651—.177/.266/.276
2027PROJMLE21MLBTB316.212/.290/.3387678-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBTB57.220/.298/.3612186-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBTB123.226/.304/.37842920.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%70
Chase%58
ISO48
wRC+40
wOBA36
K%22
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsAbimelec Ortiz (age 21) · Will Benson (age 21) · Jack Suwinski (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 119 proj PA
wRC+†78
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .288 / .335
PA119
HR3
K%29
BB%9
ISO126
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +2.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.30.30.20.10.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Arb-1$0.8M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-2$0.7M———
2037Arb-3$7M———
Totals $3M $2M +$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Rays — 2923 6300 461 01 261393391784 130333 2114 348 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Rays — 126103 34422 22321 133 330452466918 136464 2517 414 82 — — — — — —
202519 ACharleston RiverDogs — 220191 48726 25642 91 251344403747 152341 2911 334 67 — — — — — —
202519 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 2926 2000 3160 20 7717277249 200 5510 135 -23 — — — — — —
202620 ACharleston RiverDogs — 206172 37705 30621 61 215335343678 128296 3015 309 51 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 2924 4200 371 01 167286250536 83219 2410 246 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 126111 25311 14471 133 225317297615 72389 3711 289 82 — — — — — —
202519 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 220198 42724 18862 91 212284328613 116338 398 267 67 — — — — — —
202620 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 206181 32604 21841 61 177266276542 99284 4110 244 51 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 2924 4200 371 01 167286250536 83222 2410 246 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Rays — 2923 6300 461 01 261393391784 130333 2114 348 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 126111 25311 14471 133 225317297615 72381 3711 289 82 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWFCL Rays — 126103 34422 22321 133 330452466918 136464 2517 414 82 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 249224 47824 21982 111 210283317600 107347 398 267 67 — — — — — —
202519 A RAW2 teams — 249217 50726 28802 111 230324364688 134331 3211 311 67 — — — — — —
202620 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 206181 32604 21841 61 177266276542 99292 4110 244 51 — — — — — —
202620 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 206172 37705 30621 61 215335343678 128296 3015 309 51 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 2925 4200 371 01 160286240526 80219 2410 246 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 126110 25311 14471 133 227317300617 73389 3711 289 82 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 249224 47824 21982 111 210283317600 107338 398 267 67 — — — — — —
202620 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 206182 32604 21841 61 176266275541 99284 4110 244 51 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 126110 25311 14471 133 227317300617 73389 3711 289 82 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 249224 47824 21982 111 210283317600 107338 398 267 67 — — — — — —
202620 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 206182 32604 21841 61 176266275541 99284 4110 244 51 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLETB 0% 316281 591117 29903 61 212290338628 126281 289 284 78 -8 +1 -1 -3 +7 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLETB 34% 167149 33615 15471 31 219297362659 143283 289 296 86 -3 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.1
202923 MLB MLETB 48% 254227 51918 23702 51 224302380682 156284 289 305 92 -2 +1 -1 -3 +6 0.0
203024 MLB MLETB 53% 336299 6812211 31913 61 228306393699 164286 279 311 97 -1 +1 -1 -4 +7 0.3
203125 MLB MLETB 55% 380339 7814213 351023 61 231309401710 170287 279 316 100 -0 +1 -0 -4 +8 0.5
203226 MLB MLETB 56% 404361 8415215 371073 72 233310407717 174287 269 318 101 +1 +1 -0 -4 +9 0.6
203327 MLB MLETB 55% 414370 8615215 381113 72 232309404713 172286 279 317 100 +0 +1 -0 -4 +9 0.5
203428 MLB MLETB 55% 416372 8615215 381123 62 230307399706 169285 279 314 99 -1 +0 -1 -4 +9 0.3
203529 MLB MLETB 53% 407364 8315214 371113 52 227304393697 165284 279 310 96 -2 +0 -2 -4 +9 0.1
203630 MLB MLETB 53% 397355 8014213 361093 52 224301384685 160281 279 305 93 -3 +0 -2 -4 +9 -0.1
203731 MLB MLETB 52% 381341 7413112 341063 32 220296374670 155278 289 299 89 -5 -0 -3 -4 +8 -0.4
202822 MLB CTXTB 34% 5752 11202 5160 10 220298361659 140286 289 296 86 -1 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.0
202923 MLB CTXTB 48% 123110 25414 11341 20 226304378682 152287 289 305 92 -1 +0 -0 -1 +3 0.0
203024 MLB CTXTB 53% 177158 36616 16481 31 230308391698 161289 279 311 97 -1 +0 -0 -2 +4 0.1
203125 MLB CTXTB 55% 208185 42717 19562 41 232310399709 167290 279 315 100 -0 +0 -0 -2 +5 0.3
203226 MLB CTXTB 56% 225200 47818 21602 41 234312404716 170290 279 318 101 +0 +0 -0 -2 +5 0.3
203327 MLB CTXTB 55% 228203 47818 21612 41 233310401712 168289 279 316 100 +0 +0 -0 -2 +5 0.3
203428 MLB CTXTB 55% 227202 47818 21612 31 231308397705 166288 279 314 99 -0 +0 -0 -2 +5 0.2
203529 MLB CTXTB 53% 217193 44817 20592 31 228306390696 162287 279 310 96 -1 +0 -1 -2 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXTB 53% 209186 42717 19582 21 225302382684 157284 289 305 93 -2 +0 -1 -2 +5 -0.1
203731 MLB CTXTB 52% 199178 40716 18561 21 221297372669 151281 289 299 89 -3 +0 -2 -2 +4 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 18701667 38165963 17150915 288 229306392698 163288 279 310 91 -8 +2 -5 -20 +41 1.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 13323322 591775 103 230306394700 164290 279 310 91 -3 +1 -2 -7 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 42853823 85415121133 394123633 8522 223301378680 155291 299 303 91 -20 +5 -11 -39 +80 1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 12923320 601875 133 222301376677 153289 299 303 91 -3 +1 -2 -7 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 206 PAwOBA .306 → .244 (−62)K% 30.1% → 40.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.10%÷1.000×1.360——40.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.56%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03010.35%
HBP% /PA0.49%—×0.780—×1.0300.39%
Singles /BIP22.73%÷1.000×0.920×1.045×1.03022.50%
Doubles /BIP6.36%÷1.000×0.830×1.045×1.0305.68%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.045×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0303.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .306 → .244; ISO .128 → .098; BABIP .296 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 220 PAwOBA .328 → .267 (−61)K% 29.1% → 39.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.09%÷1.006×1.360——39.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.36%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0458.32%
HBP% /PA0.91%—×0.780—×1.0450.74%
Singles /BIP25.98%÷1.013×0.920×1.050×1.04525.90%
Doubles /BIP5.51%÷0.850×0.830×1.050×1.0455.91%
Triples /BIP1.57%÷1.121×0.910×1.050×1.0451.40%
Home runs /BIP4.72%÷1.159×0.800—×1.0453.41%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .328 → .267; ISO .152 → .113; BABIP .341 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 126 PAwOBA .404 → .289 (−115)K% 25.4% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.40%÷0.980×1.440——37.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.46%÷1.024×0.620—×1.02210.80%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.720—×1.0220.58%
Singles /BIP36.62%÷1.024×0.820×1.050×1.02231.48%
Doubles /BIP5.63%÷0.941×0.720×1.050×1.0224.63%
Triples /BIP2.82%÷1.150×0.720×1.050×1.0221.89%
Home runs /BIP2.82%÷1.002×0.780—×1.0222.24%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .404 → .289; ISO .136 → .095; BABIP .464 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rays · 29 PAwOBA .352 → .246 (−106)K% 20.7% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.69%÷0.987×1.220——25.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.79%÷0.984×0.700—×1.02210.03%
HBP% /PA3.45%—×0.700—×1.0222.47%
Singles /BIP17.65%÷1.005×0.680—×1.02212.21%
Doubles /BIP17.65%÷0.993×0.600—×1.02210.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.035×0.600—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.938×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .246; ISO .130 → .085; BABIP .333 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .