Brailer Guerrero

Brailer GuerreroOF Charleston RiverDogs

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION206 act + 137 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .279 / .316

PA137

HR3

K%33

BB%9

BABIP292

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$37M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	29	24	4	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	1	167	286	250	536	83	250	31	10	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	29	23	6	3	0	0	4	6	1	0	1	261	393	391	784	130	333	21	14	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	126	112	24	3	1	1	13	48	1	13	3	214	302	286	587	71	365	38	10	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	126	103	34	4	2	2	22	32	1	13	3	330	452	466	918	136	464	25	17	414	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	249	227	46	9	1	4	18	102	2	11	1	203	267	304	571	101	341	41	7	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	249	217	50	7	2	6	28	80	2	11	1	230	324	364	688	134	331	32	11	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	TB	—	206	183	31	5	0	4	19	88	1	6	1	169	251	262	514	93	287	43	9	235	38	-14	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.9
YTD	20	A	TB	—	206	172	37	7	0	5	30	62	1	6	1	215	335	343	678	128	296	30	15	309	95	-1	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.4
ROS	20	A	TB	0%	137	123	25	5	0	3	12	46	1	3	1	203	279	316	595	114	286	33	9	269	64	-6	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	TB	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		290	—	—	264	60	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	A	TB	—	206	184	31	5	0	4	19	88	1	6	1	168	251	261	512	92	284	43	9	235	38	-14	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.9
TOT	20	A	TB	—	343	306	56	10	0	7	31	134	2	9	2	183	262	284	546	101	289	39	9	249	48	-20	+1	-0	-2	+10	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TB	34%	349	313	66	12	1	10	30	110	3	6	1	211	286	351	638	141	291	32	9	288	79	-8	+1	-0	-2	+10	0.0
2028	22	MLB	TB	48%	437	392	87	16	2	14	38	134	4	8	2	222	297	380	677	158	292	31	9	301	88	-6	+1	-0	-3	+12	0.5
2029	23	MLB	TB	54%	491	441	99	18	2	17	43	147	4	9	2	224	299	390	689	166	294	30	9	309	95	-3	+1	-0	-3	+14	0.9
2030	24	MLB	TB	55%	525	468	108	19	2	20	47	155	5	10	2	231	308	408	716	177	295	30	9	314	99	-1	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.2
2031	25	MLB	TB	56%	543	485	112	20	2	21	48	160	5	10	2	231	307	410	717	179	295	29	9	318	101	+1	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.4
2032	26	MLB	TB	56%	551	492	114	20	2	22	49	162	5	11	2	232	308	415	722	183	295	29	9	320	103	+2	+1	-0	-3	+16	1.5
2033	27	MLB	TB	55%	552	492	114	20	2	22	50	163	5	11	2	232	309	415	724	183	295	30	9	320	103	+2	+1	-0	-3	+16	1.5
2034	28	MLB	TB	55%	548	488	113	20	2	22	50	163	5	10	2	232	309	416	725	184	294	30	9	319	102	+1	+1	-1	-3	+16	1.4
2035	29	MLB	TB	53%	538	478	109	19	2	21	50	161	5	10	2	228	308	408	716	180	293	30	9	317	101	+0	+1	-2	-3	+15	1.2
2036	30	MLB	TB	53%	527	468	107	19	2	20	49	159	5	9	2	229	308	406	714	177	292	30	9	314	98	-1	+1	-2	-3	+15	1.0
2037	31	MLB	TB	52%	513	457	102	18	2	19	47	156	4	8	2	223	301	396	697	173	289	30	9	310	95	-3	+1	-3	-3	+15	0.7
2027	21	MLB	TB	34%	120	108	22	4	0	3	10	38	1	2	0	204	277	324	601	120	294	32	8	283	74	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	TB	48%	212	189	42	7	1	7	19	65	2	4	1	222	300	381	681	159	296	31	9	294	83	-4	+0	-0	-1	+6	0.1
2029	23	MLB	TB	54%	266	239	53	9	1	9	23	80	2	5	1	222	295	381	676	159	297	30	9	302	89	-3	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.3
2030	24	MLB	TB	55%	291	260	60	10	1	11	26	86	3	6	1	231	308	404	712	173	298	30	9	308	94	-2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.5
2031	25	MLB	TB	56%	304	271	62	11	1	11	27	90	3	6	1	229	306	399	704	170	298	30	9	311	96	-1	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.6
2032	26	MLB	TB	56%	310	276	64	11	1	12	28	91	3	6	1	232	309	409	719	178	298	29	9	313	97	-1	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.7
2033	27	MLB	TB	55%	305	271	63	11	1	12	28	90	3	6	1	232	311	413	725	181	298	30	9	313	97	-1	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.7
2034	28	MLB	TB	55%	300	267	63	11	1	12	27	89	3	6	1	236	313	419	733	184	297	30	9	312	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.6
2035	29	MLB	TB	53%	287	256	59	10	1	11	26	86	3	5	1	230	309	406	715	176	296	30	9	310	95	-2	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.5
2036	30	MLB	TB	53%	277	247	56	10	1	10	26	83	2	5	1	227	305	397	702	170	295	30	9	307	93	-2	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.3
2037	31	MLB	TB	52%	267	238	54	9	1	10	25	81	2	4	1	227	306	399	705	172	292	30	9	303	90	-3	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2939	2623	598	103	10	108	265	879	27	55	10	228	305	398	704	170	297	30	9	307	93	-24	+7	-6	-18	+83	4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	132	23	2	24	59	194	6	12	2	228	305	398	704	171	296	30	9	307	93	-5	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	6115	5460	1230	220	23	216	547	1875	55	129	27	225	302	393	695	167	298	31	9	308	94	-40	+15	-11	-37	+173	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	130	23	2	23	58	199	6	14	3	224	301	390	691	166	296	31	9	308	94	-4	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	29	23	6	3	0	0	4	6	1	0	1	261	393	391	784	130	333	21	14	348	125	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	126	103	34	4	2	2	22	32	1	13	3	330	452	466	918	136	464	25	17	414	175	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	220	191	48	7	2	6	25	64	2	9	1	251	344	403	747	152	341	29	11	334	114	+3	+1	—	—	+6	1.1
2025	19	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	29	26	2	0	0	0	3	16	0	2	0	77	172	77	249		200	55	10	135	-39	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2José Hernándezlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,901 PA	7	2,901	95	17	254	316	413	-11	+5	8.5	8.5
	/162	664	22	4	254	316	413	-2.4	+1.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	9	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	27	9	242	297	444	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,192	116	59	228	301	399	-19	-7	6.3	5.8
	/162	664	24	12	228	301	399	-4.0	-1.4	1.3	pk7: 5
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brailer Guerrero (OGILVIE)	20	45→44	60	50	57	183/262/284	101	289	7	9	39%	9%	48	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	45→60	49→50	43	209/267/335	126	281	12	13	29%	7%	65	-0.7	223/270/369	146	300	15	12	29%	6%	76	+0.0	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→43	46→55	53→50	45	188/278/321	133	289	14	16	37%	10%	68	-0.5	217/294/348	131	331	14	16	35%	9%	81	+0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	48→51	49→60	49→45	39	240/279/394	153	303	15	7	26%	4%	85	+0.7	244/291/427	183	329	20	4	31%	6%	100	+1.7	247/307/454	207	317	26	3	30%	7%	110	+2.1
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	43	223/277/358	134	288	13	16	27%	6%	76	+0.0	227/293/391	164	273	19	14	24%	8%	91	+1.1	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
●Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→55	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	69	-0.4	234/291/434	200	292	25	13	28%	7%	102	+1.9	227/288/440	213	276	26	14	28%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Nick Weglarz 2009 · A	21	45→47	48→55	45	49	225/304/366	140	296	15	6	28%	9%	89	+1.0	222/311/381	159	278	17	5	25%	10%	96	+1.5	210/311/380	169	257	19	2	25%	11%	94	+0.7
●Dylan Carlson 2019 · A	20	42→52	45→55	45→50	46	211/281/334	124	277	12	6	28%	8%	72	-0.2	233/300/392	159	298	17	10	27%	8%	94	+1.3	244/329/393	150	298	14	4	22%	9%	103	+1.5
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→54	48→65	47→50	40	225/272/380	155	303	15	11	30%	6%	79	+0.3	253/302/451	198	320	23	9	27%	6%	111	+2.5	254/334/472	219	297	28	7	24%	10%	119	+3.1
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→47	45→55	48→55	46	233/305/357	125	310	12	12	27%	8%	87	+0.8	242/305/384	142	306	15	16	25%	7%	94	+1.3	248/306/416	169	299	18	16	23%	6%	100	+1.2
●Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	42→55	56→55	46	201/275/316	115	288	8	13	31%	9%	63	-0.8	212/280/338	126	319	10	16	34%	8%	72	-0.2	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→42	46→55	48→45	41	215/274/356	141	304	13	9	32%	7%	73	-0.1	201/270/334	133	295	13	8	34%	8%	66	-0.6	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→60	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/403	161	346	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.5	244/307/431	187	323	23	5	30%	8%	103	+1.7
✕Iverson Leonardo 2022 · A	20	41	45→50	47→50	41	200/276/327	127	305	11	9	36%	8%	68	-0.5	188/268/292	104	312	9	8	39%	8%	56	-1.3	154/245/248	94	260	8	8	40%	9%	34	-0.7
●David Dahl 2014 · A	20	50→54	44→55	53→55	41	246/281/379	132	305	10	10	23%	4%	82	+0.5	233/267/357	124	308	10	16	27%	4%	69	-0.4	250/303/422	172	323	18	12	27%	7%	99	+1.3
●Max Kepler 2013 · A	20	44→54	44→60	53→50	44	217/278/338	120	274	10	6	24%	6%	70	-0.3	222/278/346	124	276	9	7	22%	6%	72	-0.2	237/322/445	208	251	25	4	17%	10%	114	+2.7
✕Nicky Delmonico 2013 · A	21	40→47	50→55	50→45	46	213/279/363	150	251	19	8	24%	7%	79	+0.3	207/271/349	142	284	15	7	31%	7%	71	-0.3	232/301/393	160	284	18	4	24%	8%	91	+0.9
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→45	49→60	55→45	47	243/313/397	153	307	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.8	223/296/393	170	304	20	6	32%	8%	93	+1.3	221/303/414	193	290	23	4	31%	9%	99	+1.4
●Christin Stewart 2016 · A	22	46→50	48→60	49→45	41	228/296/373	145	308	15	8	30%	6%	88	+0.9	208/287/372	164	279	20	3	31%	9%	85	+0.7	231/305/421	189	283	24	1	27%	8%	101	+1.5
✕Billy McKinney 2015 · A	20	45→53	43→55	49→45	44	220/285/331	111	292	10	6	27%	7%	72	-0.2	232/290/348	116	298	9	4	24%	7%	78	+0.2	214/276/391	177	259	19	2	25%	7%	82	+0.4
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8