Brailer Guerrero

Brailer GuerreroRF Charleston RiverDogs

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs A HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION206 act + 20 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .250 / .222

PA20

HR0

K%35

BB%10

BABIP295

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	29	23	6	3	0	0	4	6	1	0	1	261	393	391	784	130	333	21	14	348	122	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	126	103	34	4	2	2	22	32	1	13	3	330	452	466	918	136	464	25	17	414	166	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.4
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	220	191	48	7	2	6	25	64	2	9	1	251	344	403	747	152	341	29	11	334	112	+3	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	19	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	29	26	2	0	0	0	3	16	0	2	0	77	172	77	249		200	55	10	135	-23	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	29	24	4	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	1	167	286	250	536	83	257	31	10	254	58	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	126	112	25	3	1	1	13	47	1	13	3	223	310	295	604	71	380	37	10	283	78	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	220	200	39	6	1	4	16	90	2	9	1	195	261	295	556	100	328	41	7	254	58	-11	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	29	24	4	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	1	167	286	250	536	83	250	31	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	29	23	6	3	0	0	4	6	1	0	1	261	393	391	784	130	333	21	14	348	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	126	112	25	3	1	1	13	47	1	13	3	223	310	295	604	71	375	37	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	126	103	34	4	2	2	22	32	1	13	3	330	452	466	918	136	464	25	17	414	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	45	7	1	5	18	102	2	11	1	198	263	304	567	106	328	41	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	249	217	50	7	2	6	28	80	2	11	1	230	324	364	688	134	331	32	11	311	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	29	25	4	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	1	160	286	240	526	80	257	31	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	126	111	25	3	1	1	13	47	1	13	3	225	310	297	607	72	380	37	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	45	7	1	5	18	102	2	11	1	198	263	304	567	106	328	41	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	29	25	4	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	1	160	286	240	526	80	257	31	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	126	111	25	3	1	1	13	47	1	13	3	225	310	297	607	72	380	37	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	45	7	1	5	18	102	2	11	1	198	263	304	567	106	328	41	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	TB	—	206	183	31	5	0	4	19	88	1	6	1	169	251	262	514	93	287	43	9	235	45	-13	+1	+0	-2	+4	-1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	TB	—	206	172	37	7	0	5	30	62	1	6	1	215	335	343	678	128	296	30	15	309	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	TB	0%	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	167	250	222	472	56	286	35	10	270	69	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	20	A MLE	TB	—	226	201	34	6	0	4	21	95	1	6	1	169	251	259	510	90	286	42	9	238	47	-14	+1	-0	-2	+5	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	34%	288	259	55	10	1	8	25	91	2	5	1	212	287	351	638	139	291	32	9	290	82	-6	+1	-0	-3	+6	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	48%	392	352	78	14	2	13	34	119	3	7	2	222	296	384	679	162	292	30	9	302	90	-5	+1	-0	-4	+8	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	54%	460	413	93	17	2	16	40	137	4	9	2	225	300	392	692	167	293	30	9	310	96	-2	+1	-0	-5	+10	0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	55%	505	450	104	18	2	19	45	149	5	10	2	231	308	407	715	176	294	30	9	315	99	-0	+1	-0	-5	+11	0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	56%	529	472	109	19	2	21	47	155	5	10	2	231	307	413	720	182	294	29	9	318	101	+1	+1	-0	-6	+11	0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	543	484	113	20	2	22	49	159	5	10	2	233	310	419	730	186	294	29	9	320	103	+2	+1	-0	-6	+12	0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	546	487	113	20	2	22	49	161	5	10	2	232	309	417	726	185	294	29	9	320	103	+2	+1	-0	-6	+12	0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	544	484	112	19	2	22	50	161	5	10	2	231	310	415	725	184	294	30	9	319	102	+1	+1	-1	-6	+12	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	536	477	109	19	2	21	49	159	5	10	2	229	307	409	716	180	293	30	9	317	101	+1	+1	-2	-6	+12	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	53%	526	468	106	18	2	20	48	158	5	9	2	226	305	402	707	175	291	30	9	314	99	-1	+1	-2	-6	+11	0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	52%	512	456	102	17	2	19	47	155	4	8	2	224	302	395	697	171	289	30	9	310	96	-2	+1	-3	-5	+11	0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	TB	52%	494	442	96	16	1	18	45	152	4	8	2	217	295	380	675	163	285	31	9	305	92	-5	+1	-4	-5	+11	-0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	TB	52%	465	416	87	14	1	16	42	145	4	7	1	209	288	363	651	154	281	31	9	298	88	-7	+1	-5	-5	+10	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	34%	99	89	20	4	0	3	9	31	1	2	0	225	303	371	674	146	299	31	9	290	82	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	48%	190	169	38	7	1	6	17	58	2	4	1	225	303	385	688	160	301	31	9	302	90	-2	+0	-0	-2	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	54%	249	223	51	9	1	9	22	74	2	5	1	229	304	399	703	170	302	30	9	311	96	-1	+1	-0	-3	+5	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	55%	280	250	59	11	1	11	25	82	3	5	1	236	313	420	733	184	303	29	9	316	99	-0	+1	-0	-3	+6	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	56%	296	265	63	11	1	12	26	87	3	6	1	238	313	423	736	185	304	29	9	319	101	+1	+1	-0	-3	+6	0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	305	272	66	12	1	13	27	89	3	6	1	243	318	438	755	195	304	29	9	321	103	+1	+1	-0	-3	+7	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	302	269	63	11	1	12	27	89	3	6	1	234	311	416	727	182	303	29	9	321	103	+1	+1	-0	-3	+7	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	298	266	62	11	1	12	27	88	3	6	1	233	311	417	728	184	303	30	9	320	102	+1	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	286	255	61	11	1	12	26	85	3	5	1	239	317	431	748	192	302	30	9	318	101	+0	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	53%	277	247	57	10	1	11	26	83	2	5	1	231	309	413	722	182	300	30	9	315	99	-0	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	52%	267	238	55	10	1	10	25	81	2	4	1	231	309	408	717	176	298	30	9	311	96	-1	+0	-2	-3	+6	0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	TB	52%	256	229	52	9	1	10	23	79	2	4	1	227	303	406	709	179	294	31	9	306	92	-2	+0	-2	-3	+6	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	TB	52%	240	214	48	8	1	9	22	75	2	4	1	224	303	397	700	173	289	31	9	299	88	-4	+0	-2	-3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3345	2986	695	124	12	130	302	1001	31	62	12	233	310	413	723	180	302	30	9	313	95	-10	+8	-10	-36	+72	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	134	24	2	25	59	195	6	12	2	231	309	409	717	178	300	30	9	313	95	-2	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6764	6041	1354	234	25	243	606	2066	60	137	29	224	301	392	693	168	295	31	9	309	95	-22	+13	-19	-68	+138	4.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	129	22	2	23	58	199	6	13	3	222	299	386	685	164	293	31	9	309	95	-2	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.4	3,555	131	64	227	300	399	-22	-8	6.8	6.0
/162	664	24	12	-4.2	-1.4	1.3	pk7: 5
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brailer Guerrero (OGILVIE)	20	45→44	60	50	57	200/274/318	118	286	5	5	33%	8%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	47→60	48→50	44	214/273/351	137	280	14	13	28%	7%	75	-0.5	224/270/363	139	299	14	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	48→53	49→60	49→45	39	240/279/394	153	303	15	7	26%	4%	87	+0.4	245/293/418	173	329	18	4	30%	6%	98	+1.2	248/309/441	194	320	23	3	29%	7%	107	+1.6
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→54	48→65	47→50	40	225/272/380	155	303	15	11	30%	6%	81	-0.1	252/300/444	192	320	22	9	27%	6%	107	+1.8	254/334/470	216	299	27	7	24%	10%	115	+2.5
✕Nicky Delmonico 2013 · A	21	41→47	47→50	50→45	46	212/280/346	134	259	15	8	25%	8%	77	-0.3	208/273/343	135	283	14	7	30%	7%	74	-0.6	230/299/381	151	284	16	4	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→50	56→55	47	203/279/323	120	288	8	13	30%	9%	71	-0.8	213/282/343	130	314	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
●Max Kepler 2013 · A	20	44→54	44→60	53→50	44	217/278/338	120	274	10	6	24%	6%	74	-0.6	222/279/348	126	273	10	7	22%	7%	76	-0.4	237/322/446	209	251	25	4	17%	10%	113	+2.3
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	72	-0.7	226/284/402	176	289	21	13	28%	7%	91	+0.7	223/292/404	181	286	20	15	29%	8%	92	+0.6
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→55	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	91	+0.7	242/299/400	158	345	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.0	245/307/425	181	322	22	5	30%	8%	102	+1.3
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→65	54→50	43	223/277/358	134	288	13	16	27%	6%	78	-0.3	226/292/383	157	272	18	14	23%	8%	90	+0.6	243/311/468	224	317	29	3	32%	8%	115	+1.8
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→53	48→50	51→55	43	224/286/370	146	300	16	14	30%	7%	84	+0.2	230/291/358	128	299	14	18	27%	7%	84	+0.1	242/290/375	133	303	14	21	24%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	47→50	53→55	46	189/281/323	135	287	14	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	211/290/332	121	325	11	16	35%	9%	78	-0.3	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	42→52	46→55	43→45	39	208/265/341	134	306	12	6	35%	6%	70	-0.8	232/285/381	149	336	14	7	33%	6%	86	+0.3	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→41	46→55	48→45	41	215/274/356	141	304	13	9	32%	7%	76	-0.4	201/270/333	132	296	13	8	34%	8%	70	-0.8	206/286/370	164	268	21	5	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Rowdy Tellez 2016 · A	21	45→49	44→60	45	43	224/272/337	113	282	13	5	25%	6%	71	-0.8	226/279/350	124	282	12	6	24%	6%	77	-0.3	245/314/456	211	283	28	1	24%	8%	110	+1.2
●Jesús Sánchez 2018 · A	20	50→52	45→60	48→50	39	247/278/376	129	311	12	5	25%	4%	82	-0.0	233/272/353	120	305	12	6	27%	5%	75	-0.5	253/320/456	203	316	25	4	27%	8%	113	+1.7
✕Iverson Leonardo 2022 · A	20	41	44→50	47→50	41	198/276/319	121	305	10	9	36%	8%	70	-0.9	189/268/291	102	310	9	8	39%	8%	61	-1.5	158/247/253	95	261	8	8	39%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Brandon Allen 2006 · A	20	41→47	46→55	45→50	39	205/269/333	128	304	14	7	36%	7%	70	-0.8	203/247/346	143	288	16	6	34%	5%	64	-1.3	223/306/403	180	284	21	9	28%	10%	97	+1.0
✕Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	48→45	49→60	55→45	47	241/312/393	152	305	17	13	26%	8%	99	+1.3	222/293/388	166	300	19	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	216/298/397	181	285	21	4	30%	9%	93	+0.7
●Dylan Carlson 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→55	45→50	45	207/278/319	112	278	10	6	28%	8%	70	-0.8	233/300/391	158	297	17	10	26%	8%	95	+0.9	245/330/400	155	299	15	4	22%	9%	106	+1.4
✕Nick Weglarz 2009 · A	21	45→47	48→50	45	49	225/304/366	140	296	15	6	28%	9%	91	+0.6	220/309/368	148	276	15	5	24%	10%	93	+0.8	207/308/360	153	254	16	2	24%	11%	90	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps