Brailer Guerrero
RF Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKTB | 126 | .330/.452/.466 | 2 | 13 | 82 | — | .225/.317/.297 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/INTL2 orgs | 249 | .230/.324/.364 | 6 | 11 | 57 | — | .212/.284/.328 |
| 2026 | 20 | ATB | 206 | .215/.335/.343 | 5 | 6 | 51 | — | .177/.266/.276 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBTB | 316 | .212/.290/.338 | 7 | 6 | 78 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBTB | 57 | .220/.298/.361 | 2 | 1 | 86 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 123 | .226/.304/.378 | 4 | 2 | 92 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays | — | 29 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 261 | 393 | 391 | 784 | 130 | 333 | 21 | 14 | 348 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 330 | 452 | 466 | 918 | 136 | 464 | 25 | 17 | 414 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 220 | 191 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 64 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 251 | 344 | 403 | 747 | 152 | 341 | 29 | 11 | 334 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 29 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 172 | 77 | 249 | 200 | 55 | 10 | 135 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 172 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 335 | 343 | 678 | 128 | 296 | 30 | 15 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 29 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 286 | 250 | 536 | 83 | 219 | 24 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 111 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 225 | 317 | 297 | 615 | 72 | 389 | 37 | 11 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 220 | 198 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 86 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 212 | 284 | 328 | 613 | 116 | 338 | 39 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 181 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 84 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 177 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 99 | 284 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 29 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 286 | 250 | 536 | 83 | 222 | 24 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays | — | 29 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 261 | 393 | 391 | 784 | 130 | 333 | 21 | 14 | 348 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 111 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 225 | 317 | 297 | 615 | 72 | 381 | 37 | 11 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 330 | 452 | 466 | 918 | 136 | 464 | 25 | 17 | 414 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 224 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 98 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 107 | 347 | 39 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 249 | 217 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 80 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 230 | 324 | 364 | 688 | 134 | 331 | 32 | 11 | 311 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 181 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 84 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 177 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 99 | 292 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 172 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 335 | 343 | 678 | 128 | 296 | 30 | 15 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 29 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 286 | 240 | 526 | 80 | 219 | 24 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 110 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 227 | 317 | 300 | 617 | 73 | 389 | 37 | 11 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 224 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 98 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 107 | 338 | 39 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 182 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 84 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 176 | 266 | 275 | 541 | 99 | 284 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 126 | 110 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 227 | 317 | 300 | 617 | 73 | 389 | 37 | 11 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 224 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 98 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 107 | 338 | 39 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 206 | 182 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 84 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 176 | 266 | 275 | 541 | 99 | 284 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 316 | 281 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 90 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 212 | 290 | 338 | 628 | 126 | 281 | 28 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 167 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 297 | 362 | 659 | 143 | 283 | 28 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 48% | 254 | 227 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 302 | 380 | 682 | 156 | 284 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 92 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 336 | 299 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 91 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 228 | 306 | 393 | 699 | 164 | 286 | 27 | 9 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 380 | 339 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 102 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 231 | 309 | 401 | 710 | 170 | 287 | 27 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 56% | 404 | 361 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 310 | 407 | 717 | 174 | 287 | 26 | 9 | 318 | 101 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 414 | 370 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 111 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 232 | 309 | 404 | 713 | 172 | 286 | 27 | 9 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 416 | 372 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 230 | 307 | 399 | 706 | 169 | 285 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 407 | 364 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 111 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 304 | 393 | 697 | 165 | 284 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 397 | 355 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 109 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 301 | 384 | 685 | 160 | 281 | 27 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 381 | 341 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 106 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 220 | 296 | 374 | 670 | 155 | 278 | 28 | 9 | 299 | 89 | -5 | -0 | -3 | -4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 57 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 298 | 361 | 659 | 140 | 286 | 28 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 48% | 123 | 110 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 304 | 378 | 682 | 152 | 287 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 92 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 177 | 158 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 308 | 391 | 698 | 161 | 289 | 27 | 9 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 208 | 185 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 56 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 310 | 399 | 709 | 167 | 290 | 27 | 9 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 56% | 225 | 200 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 312 | 404 | 716 | 170 | 290 | 27 | 9 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 228 | 203 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 310 | 401 | 712 | 168 | 289 | 27 | 9 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 227 | 202 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 308 | 397 | 705 | 166 | 288 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 217 | 193 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 306 | 390 | 696 | 162 | 287 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 209 | 186 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 302 | 382 | 684 | 157 | 284 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 199 | 178 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 297 | 372 | 669 | 151 | 281 | 28 | 9 | 299 | 89 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1870 | 1667 | 381 | 65 | 9 | 63 | 171 | 509 | 15 | 28 | 8 | 229 | 306 | 392 | 698 | 163 | 288 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 91 | -8 | +2 | -5 | -20 | +41 | 1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 133 | 23 | 3 | 22 | 59 | 177 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 230 | 306 | 394 | 700 | 164 | 290 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4285 | 3823 | 854 | 151 | 21 | 133 | 394 | 1236 | 33 | 85 | 22 | 223 | 301 | 378 | 680 | 155 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -20 | +5 | -11 | -39 | +80 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 129 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 187 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 222 | 301 | 376 | 677 | 153 | 289 | 29 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 206 PAwOBA .306 → .244 (−62)K% 30.1% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.030 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.030 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.045 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .306 → .244; ISO .128 → .098; BABIP .296 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 220 PAwOBA .328 → .267 (−61)K% 29.1% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.09% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.98% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 25.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .267; ISO .152 → .113; BABIP .341 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 126 PAwOBA .404 → .289 (−115)K% 25.4% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.40% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.46% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 10.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.62% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 31.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.24% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .404 → .289; ISO .136 → .095; BABIP .464 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rays · 29 PAwOBA .352 → .246 (−106)K% 20.7% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.005 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 12.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.993 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 10.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .352 → .246; ISO .130 → .085; BABIP .333 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .