Po-Chun Lin

P ACL Mariners

Age 21 RHP ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ROKSEA	12	11	45	5.00	2.77	30.4%	8.8%	—	K 20.7% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	7	7	36	4.63	4.63	21.7%	10.6%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSEA	4	4	21	4.48	4.40	22.8%	9.7%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsGabe Bierman (age 21) · José López (age 21) · Chih-Jung Liu (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%21.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—50

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	11	45	194	59	17	4	92%	3.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.33	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	11	45	194	59	17	4	92%	3.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.33	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	11	45	194	59	17	4	92%	3.8	30.4%	8.8%	21.6%	2.1%	5.00	2.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	7	7	36	152	33	16	5	100%	5.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	42	179	41	17	5	100%	5.3	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.40	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	21	89	20	9	3	100%	5.2	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	21	88	20	9	3	100%	5.2	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.02	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	191	86	29	100%	5.1	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		12	11	45	194	40	21	6	92%	3.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	862	178	94	25	92%	3.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.33	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Po-Chun Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	21.7%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.40	22.8%	13.1%	42	-0.23	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	85
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	84
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	84
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	83
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	22.3%	10.1%	1.15	4.55
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*