Daniel Keaney — OGILVIE

Daniel Keaney P Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%22.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	12	3	39	174	50	13	5	25%	3.2	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	12	3	39	174	50	13	5	25%	3.2	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.76	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	12	3	39	174	50	13	5	25%	3.2	28.7%	7.5%	21.3%	2.9%	4.38	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	12	10	48	213	63	14	2	83%	4.0	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.2%	4.91	3.01	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	12	10	48	213	63	14	2	83%	4.0	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.2%	4.91	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TEX	6	4	24	106	39	4	0	67%	4.0	36.8%	3.8%	33.0%	0.0%	3.70	0.47	—
2026	21	A RAW	TEX	6	6	23	107	24	10	2	100%	3.9	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	1.9%	6.17	3.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	49	207	48	18	6	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.31	4.24	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	51	214	52	18	6	100%	5.6	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.11	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	52	220	54	18	6	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.2%	16.4%	2.9%	4.10	4.03	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	223	56	18	6	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.1%	16.8%	2.9%	4.03	3.98	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	223	56	18	6	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	2.9%	3.99	3.96	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	52	220	55	18	6	100%	5.8	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	2.9%	3.99	4.00	+0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	24	101	24	9	3	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.43	4.36	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	37	156	38	13	5	100%	5.3	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.23	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	43	182	45	15	6	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.2%	16.4%	3.1%	4.22	4.15	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	50	16	6	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.1%	16.8%	3.1%	4.15	4.10	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	51	16	6	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	3.1%	4.11	4.08	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	51	17	6	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	4.11	4.12	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	247	1044	258	86	33	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.3%	16.5%	3.1%	4.20	3.77	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	70	27	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.3%	16.5%	3.1%	4.20	3.77	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		24	13	87	387	78	33	9	54%	3.6	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	2.4%	4.67	3.80	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	30	200	893	181	76	22	54%	3.6	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	2.4%	4.67	3.80	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Keaney (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	22.4%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.12	24.1%	15.6%	152	-0.30	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	82
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	80
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	78
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	78
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	78
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	24.4%	8.4%	1.13	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61