David Lorduy — OGILVIE

David Lorduy P Dayton Dragons

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%15.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	7	36	168	37	18	2	58%	3.0	15.0%	13.4%	1.6%	1.8%	4.04	4.51	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	12	7	36	168	37	18	2	58%	3.0	22.0%	10.7%	11.3%	1.2%	4.04	3.27	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	50	193	58	11	4	62%	3.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.2%	3.60	4.01	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	50	193	58	11	4	62%	3.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.2%	3.60	4.01	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	8	50	193	58	11	4	62%	3.8	30.1%	5.7%	24.4%	2.1%	3.60	2.48	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	1.8%	2.20	3.38	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	1.8%	2.20	3.38	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	26.0%	5.4%	20.6%	1.3%	2.20	2.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.3%	3.78	4.29	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.3%	3.78	4.29	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	1.7%	3.78	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	8	68	300	76	34	14	40%	3.4	18.2%	13.8%	4.4%	6.1%	6.06	6.65	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	8	68	300	76	34	14	40%	3.4	18.2%	13.8%	4.4%	6.1%	6.06	6.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CIN	3	1	7	33	13	2	1	33%	2.3	39.4%	6.1%	33.3%	3.0%	6.43	2.20	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CIN	17	7	61	267	63	32	13	41%	3.6	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	4.9%	6.02	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	69	293	51	29	8	100%	6.3	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.79	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	300	55	28	8	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	2.8%	4.73	4.66	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	304	58	28	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.64	4.59	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	304	59	28	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.8%	4.59	4.56	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	299	58	28	9	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	69	290	56	28	9	100%	6.3	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.65	4.69	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	277	53	27	9	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.75	4.82	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	261	49	26	9	100%	6.2	18.6%	10.1%	8.6%	3.3%	4.90	4.99	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	34	144	25	14	4	100%	5.7	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.0%	4.97	4.91	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	50	211	39	20	6	100%	6.2	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.85	4.78	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	58	245	47	23	7	100%	5.8	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.76	4.71	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	51	25	8	100%	6.3	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.68	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	52	25	8	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	51	25	8	100%	6.3	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.82	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	49	25	9	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.4%	4.89	4.96	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	58	245	46	25	9	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.1%	8.6%	3.6%	5.05	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	452	1908	361	182	61	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.46	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	160	81	27	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		84	47	280	1179	207	122	38	56%	3.3	17.5%	10.4%	7.1%	3.2%	4.01	4.70	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	841	147	87	27	56%	3.3	17.5%	10.4%	7.1%	3.2%	4.01	4.70	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Lorduy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	15.6%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.68	18.3%	8.8%	212	-0.33	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	90
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	88
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	87
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	86
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	86
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	85
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	85
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	84
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	84
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	83
Joshua Torres R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	21	SW	4.47	12.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.308	2.63	23.4%	15.2%	108	-1.84	2.14	217	83
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	83
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	83
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	83
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	83
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	82
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.2%	11.0%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	82
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	82
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	18.5%	9.6%	1.13	4.74
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70