David Lorduy
P
Daytona Tortugas
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2029
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.0%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 7 | 36 | 168 | 37 | 18 | 2 | 15.0% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 4.04 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 13 | 8 | 50 | 193 | 58 | 11 | 4 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.60 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 18 | 7 | 57 | 223 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 2.20 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 21 | 17 | 69 | 295 | 65 | 26 | 5 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 3.78 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 65 | 23 | 8 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.13 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 65 | 23 | 8 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 65 | 23 | 8 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 23 | 8 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 39 | 212 | 879 | 152 | 81 | 20 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 4.07 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 37 | 200 | 829 | 143 | 76 | 19 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Lorduy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.19 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 194 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 95 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 95 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 94 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 94 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 94 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 92 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 92 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 92 |
| Craig Missigman R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.02 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.04 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 124 | 91 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 91 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 90 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 90 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.78 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .290 | 5.27 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.49 | 3.36 | 191 | 90 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.81 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.92 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 196 | +1.11 | 3.81 | 264 | 90 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.33 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 51 | +0.50 | 3.83 | 102 | 90 |
| Jack Carey R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.70 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.28 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.42 | 3.79 | 217 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $14M | +$9M | ||