David Lorduy
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%15.6%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%5.0%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 7 | 36 | 168 | 37 | 18 | 2 | 58% | 3.0 | 15.0% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 4.59 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 7 | 36 | 168 | 37 | 18 | 2 | 58% | 3.0 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.04 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 13 | 8 | 50 | 193 | 58 | 11 | 4 | 62% | 3.8 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.60 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 13 | 8 | 50 | 193 | 58 | 11 | 4 | 62% | 3.8 | 30.1% | 5.7% | 24.4% | 2.1% | 3.60 | 2.48 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 57 | 223 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 39% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 2.20 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 57 | 223 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 39% | 3.2 | 26.0% | 5.4% | 20.6% | 1.3% | 2.20 | 2.38 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 69 | 295 | 65 | 26 | 5 | 81% | 3.3 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 3.78 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 69 | 295 | 65 | 26 | 5 | 81% | 3.3 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 11 | 5 | 40 | 171 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 45% | 3.6 | 15.1% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 5.4% | 4.99 | 6.61 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.6% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.10 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 92 | 393 | 75 | 42 | 13 | — | — | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.6% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 212 | 896 | 169 | 87 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.32 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 82 | 25 | 99% | 5.8 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 44 | 252 | 1050 | 178 | 105 | 29 | 59% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 3.61 | 4.48 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 141 | 84 | 23 | 59% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 3.61 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Lorduy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 15.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.72 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 167 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 90 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 89 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 87 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 87 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 86 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .370 | 4.86 | 15.8% | 4.8% | 63 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 114 | 86 |
| David Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .316 | 3.77 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 102 | -0.64 | 3.66 | 161 | 86 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 85 |
| Dillon Tate R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 4.09 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 261 | -0.63 | 3.02 | 599 | 84 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 84 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.70 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .252 | 4.78 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 272 | +0.08 | 4.52 | 366 | 84 |
| Michael Cederoth R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.02 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .292 | 4.87 | 21.6% | 2.4% | 83 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 118 | 84 |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 83 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 83 |
| Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 83 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 83 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 82 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 1.09 | 4.77 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |