Dillon Tate — OGILVIE

Dillon Tate P Salt Lake Bees

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.30

FIP4.47

K%17.2%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4040

SL+2.0 (43%)

SI (34%)

CH-1.5 (21%)

FB-3.3 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	4	7	23	5	0	1	100%	1.8	21.7%	0.0%	21.7%	4.3%	1.29	3.65	—
2015	21	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	4	4	7	23	5	0	1	100%	1.8	21.7%	0.0%	21.7%	4.3%	1.29	3.53	—
2016	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	16	82	369	70	33	6	67%	3.4	14.0%	10.6%	3.5%	2.4%	4.70	4.55	—
2016	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	24	16	82	369	70	33	6	67%	3.4	19.0%	8.9%	10.0%	1.6%	4.70	3.55	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	83	342	63	21	7	100%	6.4	14.4%	7.0%	7.4%	2.6%	2.81	4.22	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	83	342	63	21	7	100%	6.4	18.4%	6.1%	12.3%	2.0%	2.81	3.44	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	22	22	123	518	96	34	10	100%	5.6	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	2.2%	4.16	3.95	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	22	22	123	518	96	34	10	100%	5.6	18.5%	6.6%	12.0%	1.9%	4.16	3.42	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	3	65	273	60	17	9	8%	1.7	19.3%	7.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.27	4.20	+0.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	3	65	273	60	17	9	8%	1.7	22.0%	6.2%	15.8%	3.3%	4.27	3.83	+0.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	12	0	17	64	14	5	1	0%	1.4	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	1.4%	3.24	3.02	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	12	0	17	64	14	5	1	0%	1.4	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	1.6%	3.24	3.10	+0.3
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	290	50	23	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	2.2%	4.33	3.88	+0.5
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	69	290	50	23	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	2.4%	4.33	3.97	+0.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	67	0	74	292	60	14	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	4.8%	15.8%	2.1%	3.05	3.11	+1.3
2022	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	67	0	74	292	60	14	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	4.8%	15.8%	2.1%	3.05	3.10	+1.3
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	0	11	66	11	10	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	15.2%	1.5%	1.5%	15.19	4.44	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	0	11	66	11	10	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	15.2%	1.5%	1.5%	15.19	4.44	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	0	11	66	11	10	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	15.2%	1.5%	1.5%	15.19	5.07	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	251	47	16	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	6.2%	11.2%	1.2%	3.70	3.10	+1.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	251	47	16	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	6.2%	11.2%	1.2%	3.70	3.10	+1.0
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	251	47	16	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	6.4%	12.4%	1.2%	3.70	2.98	+1.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	46	201	46	26	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	1.6%	2.36	3.72	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	46	201	46	26	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	1.6%	2.36	3.72	+0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	46	201	46	26	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.9%	10.0%	1.5%	2.36	3.65	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			196	0	222	934	178	69	20	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	2.1%	4.09	3.60	+2.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	21	0	28	120	22	11	2	0%	1.3	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	1.8%	3.54	3.87	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	21	0	28	120	22	11	2	0%	1.3	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	1.8%	3.54	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	LAA	21	0	28	120	22	11	2	0%	1.3	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	1.7%	3.54	3.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	192	31	18	5	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.5%	6.9%	2.6%	4.57	4.75	-0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAA	39	0	41	174	27	17	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	2.9%	4.86	5.06	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAA	16	0	17	72	12	7	2	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.5%	6.9%	2.6%	4.57	4.75	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAA	12	0	13	55	8	5	2	0%	1.1	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	2.9%	4.86	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	0	252	1061	198	81	24	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	2.2%	4.17	3.71	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	842	157	64	19	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	2.2%	4.17	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		373	58	663	2809	471	219	62	16%	1.8	16.8%	7.8%	8.9%	2.2%	3.90	3.88	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	17	200	847	142	66	19	16%	1.8	16.8%	7.8%	8.9%	2.2%	3.90	3.88	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dillon Tate (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	17.2%	9.0%	2.4%	—	4.90	15.9%	6.2%	87	+0.43	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	80
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	80
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	80
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	79
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	79
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	78
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	78
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	77
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Ronald Belisario R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	11.8%	6.3%	1.5%	.254	2.10	18.4%	14.0%	48	-1.61	2.10	126	75
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	74
Bobby Parnell R 2017 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	15.2%	11.3%	0.6%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	102	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	16.4%	9.5%	1.02	4.56
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41