Dillon Tate
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.3
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.23
xFIP5.87
SIERA5.10
K%20.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.0%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1019.3%
K%
p1116.5%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
SL+2.0 (43%)
SI (34%)
CH-1.5 (21%)
FB-3.3 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 16 | 82 | 369 | 70 | 33 | 6 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.52 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 13 | 13 | 83 | 342 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 2.81 | 4.21 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 96 | 34 | 10 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 38 | 3 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 17 | 9 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 12 | 0 | 17 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 1.6% | 3.24 | 3.13 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.33 | 3.80 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 67 | 0 | 74 | 292 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 20.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 3.05 | 3.16 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 13 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 11 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 15.19 | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 54 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 47 | 16 | 3 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 3.70 | 3.08 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 46 | 26 | 3 | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 2.36 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 352 | 58 | 635 | 2689 | 456 | 214 | 59 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 3.89 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 18 | 200 | 847 | 144 | 67 | 19 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dillon Tate (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 110 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 88 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 84 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 83 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 82 |
| Bryan Morris R 2024 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 81 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 78 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 78 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Matt Belisle R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 76 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 76 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.