Player 806121 P Tampa Tarpons
Age — —HP A peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST109
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
K: +1.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -1.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: -3.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +1.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+1STAMTotal WAR: -0.29 (36 IP)-0.3WAR
0.00.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026—ATampa Tarpons6521932714383%3.521.5%17.8%3.7%4.2%3.435.84-0.3
ROS—MLBNYY2215621462100%7.323.4%9.4%14.0%3.0%4.354.35+0.0
2026 Total—MLBNYY——3615541205——26.8%12.8%14.0%3.1%3.815.23-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBNYY3320842083100%6.723.7%9.1%14.7%3.0%4.304.27+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career—6521932017483%3.521.5%17.8%3.7%4.2%3.435.84-0.3
/ 200 IP—57482008861901623883%3.521.5%17.8%3.7%4.2%3.435.84-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 806121 (OGILVIE) —— 4.35 23.4%9.4%3.0%— — ——— — ———
Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 22.5%6.7%2.1%.289 3.78 20.9%13.1%225 +0.60 3.18 256 81
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 79
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 — ——— — 4.42 102 76
Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 26 SP- 3.92 24.5%9.5%3.1%.232 5.11 17.5%6.2%190 +1.19 3.92 233 75
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 25 SP 4.39 23.0%10.5%3.5%.335 4.65 21.4%11.7%382 +0.26 3.67 509 75
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 25 SP 3.98 26.8%8.1%3.9%.325 — ——— — 3.63 209 74
Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 20.8%12.2%3.5%.450 4.58 17.9%4.8%170 -0.22 3.80 187 73
Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 72
Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 72
Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 71
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 — ——— — 3.45 102 71
Logan Tabeling R 2025 · 3.16 FIP 24 SP 3.16 24.6%11.5%1.2%.263 — ——— — 3.16 113 71
Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 71
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP 25 SP 3.55 20.4%10.4%1.6%.286 5.51 25.3%9.1%58 +1.96 3.29 142 70
Aidan Foeller R 2025 · 4.45 FIP 24 SP 4.45 23.4%10.6%3.6%.218 — ——— — 4.45 149 70
Will Sanders R 2025 · 4.48 FIP 24 SP- 4.48 24.1%9.0%4.1%.304 — ——— — 3.89 259 70
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP 25 SP- 5.50 21.0%12.2%4.8%.320 4.16 23.1%13.2%138 -1.34 3.45 292 69
Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 26.3%11.9%2.6%.340 — ——— — 3.81 138 69
Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 69
Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 25 SP 3.85 20.7%9.3%2.4%.346 — ——— — 3.85 132 69