Steven Echavarria

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #279MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	AOAK	19	19	58	6.55	3.83	20.9%	12.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.57
2025	19	A+OAK	26	25	104	4.59	3.62	19.5%	9.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.51
2026	20	MIX2 levels	25	25	117	5.14	4.18	24.1%	10.0%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.19
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	28	28	137	5.13	5.13	18.9%	11.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	14	14	71	4.85	4.75	20.6%	10.4%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	20	20	109	4.65	4.54	21.6%	9.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$9M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control49Command47FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsTy Cummings (age 22) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Jamison Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%18.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD3045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	15.5%	15.1%	0.4%	1.6%	6.55	4.57	—
2024	18	A RAW	Stockton Ports	19	19	58	282	59	36	4	100%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.2%	1.4%	6.55	3.83	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.4%	4.59	4.51	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	25	104	451	88	42	8	96%	4.0	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	1.8%	4.59	3.62	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.14	5.19	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	117	518	125	52	17	100%	4.7	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.3%	5.14	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	28	28	137	578	109	67	19	100%	4.9	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	28	28	144	609	125	63	19	100%	5.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.89	4.79	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	28	28	150	632	137	61	20	100%	5.3	21.6%	9.7%	12.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.58	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	153	647	144	60	20	100%	5.7	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.45	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	155	655	148	59	20	100%	5.7	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.38	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	155	655	149	59	20	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.36	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	153	646	147	58	20	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.40	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	148	626	142	58	20	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.48	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	142	598	134	56	20	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	133	562	124	55	20	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	524	114	53	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	485	103	51	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	4.0%	5.08	5.22	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	71	300	62	31	9	100%	5.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.75	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	109	460	100	45	14	100%	5.5	21.6%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.54	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	127	536	119	49	16	100%	5.5	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.41	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	131	52	17	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	142	600	137	54	18	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	142	600	137	54	18	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.36	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	139	587	133	54	18	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.44	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	135	570	128	54	19	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.56	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	126	532	118	52	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	118	498	108	50	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.83	4.94	-0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	109	460	98	48	18	100%	6.1	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.9%	5.02	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	232	1355	5721	1269	543	184	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.19	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	80	27	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		70	69	279	1251	209	150	36	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	49	200	897	150	108	26	99%	4.0	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	4.81	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Echavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	18.9%	11.6%	3.2%	—	4.60	21.5%	11.7%	447	-0.53	—	—	—
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	87
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.06	18.1%	9.6%	296	+0.01	3.86	496	83
Ben Kudrna R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP	5.08	19.1%	12.2%	3.7%	.302	4.25	18.7%	7.6%	105	-0.83	4.22	402	83
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	82
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	82
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	82
Adam Kloffenstein R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	18.4%	11.9%	3.8%	.340	5.08	19.6%	9.5%	299	-0.04	4.26	636	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	142	21.9%	9.7%	1.27	4.66
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Mike Norris ('75-'90, 8 WAR*)	5.6	125	21.2%*	10.4%*	1.18*	4.40*
Steve Renko ('69-'83, 22 WAR*)	12.5	166	19.9%*	9.2%*	1.29*	4.37*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49