Gabe Davis

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 RHP 6'9" / 234 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	23	83	4.97	4.44	25.8%	9.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.43
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	11	11	62	5.24	5.24	21.0%	11.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBNYM	6	6	34	5.07	5.02	21.8%	11.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBNYM	9	9	52	4.94	4.89	22.3%	10.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$0.4M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRyan Jensen (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%21.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	4.1%	4.97	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	11	11	62	262	55	31	10	100%	5.6	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	3.7%	5.24	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	77	325	71	36	12	100%	5.5	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.07	5.02	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	329	73	35	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.89	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	329	74	35	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.87	4.84	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	77	324	73	34	12	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	74	314	70	34	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.7%	4.91	4.95	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	71	300	67	33	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.8%	5.01	5.08	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	67	282	62	32	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	11.3%	10.6%	4.0%	5.16	5.26	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	34	144	31	16	5	100%	5.7	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.07	5.02	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	52	220	49	23	8	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.89	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	62	262	59	28	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.87	4.84	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	63	30	10	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.87	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	63	30	10	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.6%	4.90	4.94	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	65	274	61	30	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.8%	5.00	5.07	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	62	262	57	29	10	100%	6.2	21.8%	11.3%	10.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	406	1714	382	185	63	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.60	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	91	31	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		24	23	83	365	75	39	18	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	55	200	876	180	93	43	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	21.0%	11.9%	3.7%	—	4.92	22.2%	11.5%	233	-0.32	—	—	—
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	84
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	84
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	84
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.76	13.6%	5.4%	311	-0.39	4.07	567	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	82
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	82
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	81
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	22.1%	10.9%	1.42	5.00
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Wes Stock ('59-'67, 2 WAR*)	2.6	74	22.3%*	9.6%*	1.29*	4.22*