Cameron Keshock — OGILVIE

Cameron Keshock P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 22 RHP 6'7" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	7	0	10	41	11	3	0	0%	1.4	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	0.0%	1.86	1.76	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	7	0	10	41	11	3	0	0%	1.4	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	0.0%	1.86	1.76	—
2025	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	7	0	10	41	11	3	0	0%	1.4	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	0.0%	1.86	1.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	62	279	68	40	13	100%	3.6	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	5.8%	5.23	6.80	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	62	279	68	40	13	100%	3.6	18.8%	16.5%	2.3%	5.8%	5.23	6.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	PIT	17	17	62	279	68	40	13	100%	3.6	24.4%	14.3%	10.0%	4.7%	5.23	5.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	63	266	60	30	8	100%	5.2	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.69	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	65	273	63	29	8	100%	5.4	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.51	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	65	276	65	28	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.40	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	65	276	66	27	8	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.37	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	64	272	65	27	8	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	3.1%	4.42	4.41	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	31	131	30	15	4	100%	5.2	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.8%	4.65	4.56	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	45	190	44	20	5	100%	5.6	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.39	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	53	224	53	22	6	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.28	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	57	241	57	24	7	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.25	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	58	245	58	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.28	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	245	1033	243	106	29	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.8%	4.39	3.95	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	87	24	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.8%	4.39	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		24	17	72	320	63	49	16	71%	3.0	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	5.1%	4.77	6.15	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	47	200	893	177	137	45	71%	3.0	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	5.1%	4.77	6.15	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cameron Keshock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	21.7%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.53	23.2%	12.5%	193	-0.44	—	—	—
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	81
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	81
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	23.2%	10.6%	1.17	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99