Jonah Tong

P Syracuse Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.0 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	25	23	113	3.03	1.86	34.2%	10.0%	—	K 25.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 2.61
2025	22	MIX3 levels	27	27	132	2.31	1.82	38.0%	10.6%	5.4	K 31.7% · BB 11.9% · FIP 2.54
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	27	138	4.38	4.63	26.6%	12.1%	0.4	K 23.7% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	30	30	168	4.35	4.52	27.0%	11.5%	0.7
2028PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBNYM	20	20	118	4.36	4.39	26.9%	10.6%	0.7
2029PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBNYM	23	23	140	4.35	4.35	26.8%	10.3%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.180First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$6M2031Arb-2$10M2032Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%81

K%67

FB Velo55

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 58%

CompsShohei Ohtani (age 24) · Ryan Garcia (age 24) · Jake Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.35

FIP4.52

K%27.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP168

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

CU (12%)

SL (3%)

CH-1.6 (27%)

FB-4.0 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$14M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	28.8%	27.5%	1.3%	2.3%	6.00	5.41	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	38.0%	22.0%	16.0%	3.0%	6.00	4.48	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	25.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.4%	3.03	2.61	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	25.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.4%	3.03	2.61	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	34.2%	10.0%	24.1%	0.6%	3.03	1.86	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	1.1%	2.31	2.54	+4.0
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	1.1%	2.31	2.54	+4.0
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	38.0%	10.6%	27.4%	0.9%	2.31	1.82	+5.4
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	138	601	160	73	24	90%	4.6	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	4.4%	4.38	4.91	-0.0
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	138	601	160	73	24	90%	4.6	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	4.4%	4.38	4.91	-0.0
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	138	601	160	73	24	90%	4.6	26.6%	12.1%	14.5%	4.0%	4.38	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	9	49	221	56	23	5	75%	4.1	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	2.3%	5.29	3.55	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	30	30	168	709	192	82	24	100%	5.6	27.0%	11.5%	15.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.52	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	175	739	199	78	25	100%	5.8	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	3.3%	4.36	4.39	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	175	739	198	76	25	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.3%	16.4%	3.3%	4.35	4.35	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	728	193	75	24	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	3.4%	4.37	4.38	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	728	191	75	25	100%	5.9	26.3%	10.4%	15.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.47	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	165	695	178	74	25	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.63	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	155	653	163	71	25	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.8%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	144	609	148	69	24	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	4.0%	4.93	5.07	-0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	564	132	66	24	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.7%	11.8%	4.3%	5.16	5.32	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	118	498	134	53	17	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	3.3%	4.36	4.39	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	140	591	158	61	20	100%	6.1	26.8%	10.3%	16.4%	3.3%	4.35	4.35	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	148	625	166	64	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	3.3%	4.37	4.38	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	154	650	171	67	22	100%	5.9	26.3%	10.4%	15.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.47	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	150	633	163	67	23	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.63	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	143	604	151	66	23	100%	6.0	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.8%	4.71	4.82	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	134	566	137	64	23	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	4.0%	4.92	5.06	-0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	125	528	124	61	22	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.8%	4.3%	5.15	5.31	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	195	1161	4914	1258	527	175	98%	5.9	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.6%	4.63	4.25	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	217	91	30	98%	5.9	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.6%	4.63	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		92	85	404	1698	460	211	36	92%	4.4	27.1%	12.4%	14.6%	2.1%	3.41	3.57	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	841	227	105	18	92%	4.4	27.1%	12.4%	14.6%	2.1%	3.41	3.57	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonah Tong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	27.0%	11.5%	3.4%	—	4.37	26.7%	16.3%	522	-0.15	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	78
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	77
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	74
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	73
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	73
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	72
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	72
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	72
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	71
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	71
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	70
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.85	18.8%	11.1%	207	-1.27	3.22	274	70
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	151	25.8%	10.8%	1.37	4.58
Ted Gray ('46-'55, 7 WAR*)	5.7	142	27.3%*	9.7%*	1.46*	4.51*
Eric Erickson ('14-'22, 2 WAR*)	4.1	164	25.8%*	11.1%*	1.49*	4.56*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30