Jordy Arias
P
ACL Rangers
Age 20
RHP
5'11" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 9 | 8 | 38 | 154 | 46 | 27 | 1 | 89% | 4.3 | 20.3% | 21.9% | -1.6% | 0.7% | 1.41 | 4.55 | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 9 | 8 | 38 | 154 | 46 | 27 | 1 | 89% | 4.3 | 29.9% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 1.41 | 3.15 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 13 | 9 | 24 | 125 | 26 | 20 | 3 | 69% | 1.9 | 14.1% | 20.0% | -5.9% | 2.5% | 9.62 | 5.80 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 13 | 9 | 24 | 125 | 26 | 20 | 3 | 69% | 1.9 | 20.8% | 16.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 9.62 | 5.03 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 57% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 3.49 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 57% | 3.5 | 28.7% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 2.32 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 26.3% | -10.5% | 2.6% | 10.57 | 6.54 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 26.3% | -10.5% | 2.6% | 10.57 | 7.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | TEX | 3 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TEX | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 21 | 95 | 418 | 75 | 85 | 5 | 60% | 2.7 | 17.9% | 20.3% | -2.5% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 4.85 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 44 | 200 | 883 | 158 | 180 | 11 | 60% | 2.7 | 17.9% | 20.3% | -2.5% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordy Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 85 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 82 |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 81 |
| Connor Cooke R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 80 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 79 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 78 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2029 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 78 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 77 |
| Grant Holman R 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 77 |
| Cole Stapler R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 77 |
| Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 77 |
| Simon Mathews R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 77 |
| Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.42 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | .275 | 4.69 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 299 | +0.27 | 4.13 | 397 | 77 |
| Deretd Parra R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 77 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 76 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 76 |
| Colin Fields R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 76 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .310 | 5.17 | 20.5% | 3.3% | 50 | +0.34 | 3.92 | 128 | 75 |
| Juan Mendez R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 75 |
| Rodolfo Sanchez R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.72 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.07 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 104 | +0.35 | 3.59 | 255 | 75 |