Jordy Arias — OGILVIE

Jordy Arias P ACL Rangers

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%22.2%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	9	8	38	154	46	27	1	89%	4.3	20.3%	21.9%	-1.6%	0.8%	1.41	4.60	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	9	8	38	154	46	27	1	89%	4.3	29.9%	17.5%	12.3%	0.6%	1.41	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	13	9	24	125	26	20	3	69%	1.9	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	2.8%	9.62	6.00	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	13	9	24	125	26	20	3	69%	1.9	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	2.8%	9.62	6.00	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	13	9	24	125	26	20	3	69%	1.9	20.8%	16.0%	4.8%	2.4%	9.62	5.03	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	19.5%	16.1%	3.4%	0.0%	2.22	3.49	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	19.5%	16.1%	3.4%	0.0%	2.22	3.49	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	28.7%	12.9%	15.8%	0.0%	2.22	2.32	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	6.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	6.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	7.14	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	TEX	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	5	5	23	97	22	12	3	100%	4.6	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.81	4.73	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	11	46	11	6	1	100%	5.5	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.81	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	48	11	6	1	100%	5.7	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.81	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	195	106	18	100%	4.8	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.81	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		35	21	95	418	75	85	6	60%	2.7	17.9%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.4%	4.47	4.93	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	44	200	883	158	180	12	60%	2.7	17.9%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.4%	4.47	4.93	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.2%	14.0%	3.0%	—	4.73	22.7%	10.3%	23	-0.27	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	87
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	80
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	80
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	80
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	79
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	79
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	79
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	78
Victor Simeon R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	20	SW	3.87	17.7%	13.8%	0.9%	.266	4.21	21.3%	5.1%	105	+0.34	3.22	180	78
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	77
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	77
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	77
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	77
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	77