Owen Carapellotti

C Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1445ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	A/ROKTOR	196	.239/.364/.546	15	1	75	—	.173/.267/.385
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	246	.213/.282/.355	7	3	79	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTOR	40	.216/.285/.360	1	1	81	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	83	.217/.287/.362	2	1	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO99

wOBA93

wRC+89

BB%84

Chase%73

K%48

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsTravis Scott (age 24) · César Salazar (age 23) · Nick Cimillo (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .280 / .352

PA91

HR3

K%31

BB%8

ISO142

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	175	147	36	5	0	15	27	47	1	1	0	245	366	585	951	340	247	27	15	410	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	21	16	3	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	188	350	188	537		273	29	14	264	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	175	156	28	4	0	11	18	64	1	1	0	179	269	417	685	237	202	37	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	21	17	2	0	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	118	250	118	368		216	43	10	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	196	173	30	4	0	11	20	73	2	1	0	173	267	387	654	214	211	37	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	196	163	39	5	0	15	30	53	2	1	0	239	364	546	910	307	250	27	15	394	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	196	172	30	4	0	11	20	73	2	1	0	174	267	390	656	215	204	37	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	196	172	30	4	0	11	20	73	2	1	0	174	267	390	656	215	204	37	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	246	223	47	8	1	7	19	77	2	3	1	213	282	355	638	142	287	31	8	285	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	132	120	26	4	1	4	10	40	1	2	1	215	285	359	643	143	288	30	8	288	81	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	188	169	36	6	1	5	15	57	2	2	1	217	286	361	647	144	288	30	8	289	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	49%	229	207	46	8	1	7	18	69	2	3	1	217	287	361	648	144	287	30	8	290	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	258	233	50	9	1	7	21	77	2	3	1	217	287	358	645	142	286	30	8	289	81	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	269	243	52	9	1	7	22	80	2	3	1	216	285	355	640	139	285	30	8	287	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	275	249	52	9	1	7	22	83	2	3	2	213	282	347	628	134	283	30	8	282	77	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	40	37	7	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	216	285	360	645	144	289	30	8	288	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	83	75	16	3	0	2	7	25	1	1	0	217	287	362	649	145	289	30	8	290	82	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	49%	112	101	23	4	1	3	9	34	1	1	0	218	288	362	650	144	288	30	8	290	82	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	133	120	26	4	1	4	11	40	1	2	1	217	287	360	647	142	288	30	8	289	81	-3	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	138	125	28	5	1	4	11	41	1	2	1	216	286	356	642	139	286	30	8	287	80	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	142	129	28	5	1	4	11	43	1	2	1	213	282	348	630	134	284	30	8	283	77	-4	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	648	587	128	22	4	18	52	195	5	9	3	218	287	361	648	143	291	30	8	288	80	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	128	22	4	18	52	196	5	9	3	217	286	360	646	143	290	30	8	288	80	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1638	1477	311	52	7	51	135	507	14	18	7	211	283	359	642	148	281	31	8	286	80	-34	+1	-4	+26	+31	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	124	21	3	20	54	201	6	7	3	212	285	360	645	148	283	31	8	286	80	-15	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 175 PAwOBA .398 → .290 (−108)K% 26.9% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.86%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	36.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.43%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.54%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.44%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.951	×0.990	13.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.951	×0.990	3.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.951	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	11.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .398 → .290; ISO .340 → .247; BABIP .247 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 21 PAwOBA .272 → .190 (−81)K% 28.6% → 41.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	41.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.965	8.55%
HBP% /PA	4.76%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	3.31%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.965	23.74%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.965	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .272 → .190; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chris Widger'95-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,998 PA	3.0	1,998	55	10	227*	283*	381*	+33	-0	3.6	4.1
/162	664	18	3	+11.1	-0.2	1.2	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.1	739	21	9	216	283	357	+13	+16	1.6	1.6
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+14.4	1.5	pk7: 2
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Carapellotti (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	212/280/352	140	287	3	1	31%	8%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Travis Scott 2009 · A	24	43	49→55	46→40	42	221/276/367	146	289	17	5	29%	7%	80	-0.1	220/272/371	151	280	17	5	27%	6%	80	-0.2	220/274/391	171	267	19	2	25%	6%	84	+0.1
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	43→40	48→45	49→45	39	217/279/354	138	308	17	8	34%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/318	108	263	11	8	24%	5%	65	-1.2	206/307/310	103	242	10	6	18%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Nick Cimillo 2024 · A	24	42→37	49→55	47→40	45	211/291/359	149	291	16	5	32%	9%	84	+0.2	206/277/378	172	264	21	5	29%	8%	84	+0.1	191/263/365	174	240	22	3	30%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	43	48→55	51→45	44	217/286/366	149	280	15	6	27%	7%	84	+0.2	225/285/338	113	297	8	7	26%	6%	76	-0.4	215/274/384	169	274	21	5	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Jared Greenwood 2007 · A	24	39	50→55	43→45	42	206/271/353	147	290	19	7	35%	8%	75	-0.5	204/266/329	125	321	14	6	38%	7%	68	-1.0	169/232/282	113	281	12	0	42%	7%	41	-1.0
✕Braxton Fulford 2023 · A	24	44→41	47→50	52→50	44	216/299/348	131	298	14	10	31%	8%	85	+0.2	213/288/349	136	291	14	10	30%	7%	82	-0.0	207/283/351	144	282	15	9	30%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Nathan Hickey 2024 · AA	24	42→40	53→50	47→40	46	216/296/388	172	293	21	4	33%	9%	93	+0.8	192/272/328	136	276	15	4	34%	9%	70	-0.8	173/257/299	126	247	13	3	34%	10%	56	-1.3
✕Jaxx Groshans 2022 · A	24	46	47→50	47→30	46	228/292/362	134	300	15	4	28%	8%	84	+0.2	198/263/320	122	284	13	5	33%	8%	65	-1.2	121/197/239	117	168	13	0	36%	8%	20	-1.5
✕Isan Díaz 2020 · MLB	24	42→43	50→55	45	44	217/288/375	158	293	18	8	32%	8%	87	+0.4	217/289/371	154	288	18	7	30%	8%	86	+0.3	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Ryan Flaherty 2010 · A	24	45→47	48→55	44→45	44	228/278/371	143	280	16	6	25%	6%	81	-0.1	229/278/366	137	283	14	5	24%	6%	80	-0.1	228/275/384	156	274	20	4	24%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Alex Isola 2022 · A	24	39→44	50	47→40	46	205/273/349	143	260	19	4	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/284/350	133	273	16	4	26%	8%	79	-0.2	209/277/330	121	257	15	4	24%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Logan Driscoll 2023 · A	25	41→46	45	48→40	41	205/269/325	120	285	13	6	32%	7%	68	-1.0	226/281/343	117	304	11	5	28%	6%	76	-0.4	230/288/345	115	310	11	3	28%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→47	46→45	49→50	43	195/275/324	129	258	13	9	29%	7%	71	-0.8	216/290/343	127	275	12	9	25%	7%	80	-0.1	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	40→49	46→45	47→45	47	200/279/329	129	274	13	5	31%	9%	73	-0.6	227/289/345	118	302	12	5	27%	8%	80	-0.2	231/291/343	112	305	11	4	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→45	49→50	44→45	46	224/292/371	148	289	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.4	217/297/370	153	284	16	5	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/299/370	157	281	17	4	29%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Zack Collins 2019 · AA	24	39→42	48→50	47→40	50	192/294/333	141	297	15	4	37%	12%	80	-0.1	210/305/364	154	309	17	4	34%	12%	91	+0.7	192/293/353	162	269	18	2	33%	12%	85	+0.1
✕Tatem Levins 2024 · A	25	47	47→45	48→40	45	236/292/373	136	303	15	4	27%	7%	87	+0.4	204/285/323	119	282	12	4	30%	9%	74	-0.5	188/284/299	111	259	12	3	30%	10%	66	-0.7
✕Tyler Marlette 2017 · AA	24	45→43	48→50	45	40	228/271/371	143	292	16	6	28%	5%	79	-0.2	218/267/341	123	287	13	5	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/262/326	116	274	13	3	27%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Andrew Susac 2014 · AA	24	42→39	47→50	46→30	47	212/288/347	135	284	15	3	30%	9%	80	-0.1	223/295/367	144	296	16	3	28%	8%	88	+0.4	216/287/358	142	283	16	0	28%	8%	82	-0.0

Owen Carapellotti

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps