Owen Carapellotti

Owen CarapellottiC Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION196 act + 26 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .269 / .375

PA26

HR0

K%35

BB%8

BABIP272

ISO167

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	23	A MLE	TOR	—	196	171	30	4	0	11	22	75	2	1	0	175	277	392	669	216	221	38	11	293	85	-4	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	ROK RAW	TOR	—	21	16	3	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	188	350	188	537		273	29	14	264	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A RAW	TOR	—	175	147	36	5	0	15	27	47	1	1	0	245	366	585	951	340	247	27	15	410	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	TOR	0%	26	24	5	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	208	269	375	644	167	270	35	8	289	82	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	TOR	—	222	195	35	5	0	12	24	84	2	1	0	179	276	390	666	210	230	38	11	293	84	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	42%	396	353	73	12	2	14	36	127	4	5	1	207	288	371	659	164	274	32	9	296	86	-7	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	62%	486	435	91	15	2	18	44	152	4	6	2	209	288	377	665	168	276	31	9	298	88	-7	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	71%	520	463	99	17	2	19	47	160	5	7	2	214	293	382	675	168	277	31	9	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	73%	520	462	99	17	2	19	48	160	5	7	2	214	295	383	678	169	277	31	9	301	90	-6	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	75%	520	462	99	17	2	19	48	160	5	7	2	214	295	383	678	169	276	31	9	300	89	-7	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	73%	520	461	97	16	2	18	49	161	5	7	2	210	293	371	664	161	275	31	9	298	88	-8	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	73%	520	461	96	16	2	18	49	163	5	7	2	208	291	369	660	161	274	31	9	295	86	-9	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	72%	504	447	92	15	2	17	47	159	5	6	2	206	289	362	651	157	271	32	9	291	83	-10	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.7
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	72%	489	436	87	14	2	16	46	156	4	6	2	200	282	351	633	151	268	32	9	285	79	-12	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	78%	473	422	82	13	1	15	44	154	4	6	2	194	277	336	613	142	263	33	9	279	75	-14	+0	-4	+8	+10	0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	TOR	74%	436	389	73	11	1	13	40	145	4	5	1	188	270	321	592	134	257	33	9	270	69	-16	+1	-5	+8	+9	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	42%	167	149	31	5	1	6	15	54	1	2	1	208	285	376	661	168	276	32	9	290	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	62%	301	268	56	9	1	11	27	94	3	4	1	209	289	373	662	164	277	31	9	292	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	71%	370	330	71	12	2	13	34	114	3	5	1	215	294	382	676	167	278	31	9	294	89	-5	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	73%	382	340	73	12	2	14	35	117	4	5	1	215	296	385	681	171	278	31	9	295	90	-5	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	75%	388	345	74	12	2	14	36	120	4	5	1	214	296	383	679	168	278	31	9	294	89	-5	+1	-1	+7	+8	1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	73%	382	339	73	12	2	14	36	119	4	5	1	215	298	386	685	171	277	31	9	292	88	-6	+1	-1	+7	+8	0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	73%	379	338	70	12	1	13	35	119	3	5	1	207	287	364	651	157	275	31	9	289	86	-6	+1	-2	+7	+8	0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	72%	365	325	66	11	1	12	34	115	3	5	1	203	285	354	638	151	272	32	9	285	83	-7	+1	-2	+7	+8	0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	72%	353	314	63	10	1	12	33	113	3	4	1	201	283	354	636	153	269	32	9	280	79	-9	+0	-3	+6	+8	0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	78%	371	331	65	10	1	12	34	121	3	5	1	196	277	341	619	145	265	33	9	273	75	-11	+1	-3	+7	+8	0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	TOR	74%	322	286	55	8	1	10	30	107	3	4	1	192	276	332	608	140	259	33	9	265	69	-12	+0	-4	+6	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3780	3365	697	113	15	131	349	1193	34	49	11	207	288	366	655	159	274	32	9	286	84	-73	+5	-15	+68	+82	6.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	120	19	3	23	60	205	6	8	2	207	289	370	658	162	273	32	9	286	84	-13	+1	-3	+12	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5410	4815	993	164	20	187	500	1706	50	69	20	206	288	365	653	159	273	32	9	292	84	-103	+6	-20	+97	+117	9.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	119	20	2	22	60	205	6	8	2	206	287	361	648	155	273	32	9	292	84	-12	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.2	4,101	139	53	208	285	366	+73	+36	10.6	9.4
/162	664	23	9	+11.9	+5.8	1.7	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Carapellotti (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	200/280/360	161	270	12	3	33%	9%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	44	48→55	51→45	44	220/290/372	152	284	15	6	27%	7%	87	+0.4	226/287/341	115	299	8	7	26%	6%	78	-0.3	221/280/392	172	282	21	5	29%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Travis Scott 2009 · A	24	43	49→55	46→40	42	221/276/366	145	289	17	5	29%	7%	80	-0.2	221/274/374	153	281	17	5	27%	6%	81	-0.1	223/277/397	173	271	20	2	25%	6%	87	+0.2
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	43→41	48→45	49→45	39	217/279/354	138	308	17	8	34%	6%	79	-0.2	211/267/319	108	265	11	8	24%	5%	66	-1.1	203/308/311	108	241	12	6	20%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	43	50	53→55	45	220/289/382	163	296	17	9	31%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/344	136	276	15	19	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.4	216/294/377	161	276	19	10	28%	9%	90	+0.6	211/292/376	165	256	20	8	25%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Jimmy Crooks 2023 · A	22	48→45	47→50	51→40	43	228/313/368	140	332	14	6	33%	8%	95	+0.9	233/294/354	121	326	12	4	30%	7%	84	+0.1	229/298/368	139	321	17	2	32%	7%	86	+0.2
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	82	-0.0	206/259/371	165	258	20	9	28%	6%	75	-0.5	239/297/403	165	282	19	7	22%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Zachery Almond 2019 · A	23	46	48→55	48→40	40	233/275/372	139	288	16	4	25%	5%	80	-0.1	199/256/299	100	289	9	5	32%	7%	57	-1.8	164/229/244	80	247	7	3	35%	7%	35	-2.1
✕Jaxx Groshans 2022 · A	24	46	47→50	47→30	46	229/293/363	134	302	15	4	28%	8%	85	+0.2	199/268/321	122	290	12	5	33%	8%	67	-1.1	125/209/240	115	181	12	0	37%	9%	24	-1.4
✕Braxton Fulford 2023 · A	24	45→42	49→50	51→50	45	222/307/366	144	301	17	10	30%	8%	93	+0.8	212/287/352	140	290	15	10	31%	7%	82	-0.0	203/278/349	145	277	16	9	31%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Ryan Casteel 2014 · A	23	42→49	53→55	48→40	41	222/275/397	174	291	20	4	31%	6%	87	+0.4	230/271/363	133	308	15	5	29%	5%	77	-0.3	212/260/355	143	277	18	0	30%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→48	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	204/281/333	129	269	13	9	28%	7%	75	-0.5	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	40	46→55	47→45	45	203/281/331	128	258	14	8	26%	8%	74	-0.5	219/278/387	168	291	21	4	31%	6%	86	+0.3	217/271/408	191	280	27	0	32%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Andrew Young 2018 · A	24	45→46	49→55	50→40	40	227/294/375	148	298	16	7	29%	5%	89	+0.5	226/303/389	163	279	20	5	26%	6%	97	+1.1	219/300/401	182	282	23	3	30%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Brian O'Keefe 2016 · A	23	47→43	46→55	48→40	41	232/288/364	132	315	14	5	30%	6%	84	+0.1	216/285/353	137	277	14	4	26%	8%	80	-0.1	208/282/349	141	263	14	2	25%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Yonathan Perlaza 2022 · A	23	45→52	48→55	44→50	41	225/281/367	142	308	16	7	32%	7%	82	-0.0	226/297/395	169	297	18	11	28%	9%	95	+0.9	232/305/402	170	301	17	12	27%	9%	96	+1.0
✕Freuddy Batista 2023 · A	23	41	49→50	49→40	39	206/278/354	147	300	17	8	35%	7%	78	-0.3	208/263/340	132	299	13	4	34%	5%	69	-0.9	206/257/336	130	270	16	4	30%	4%	63	-0.6
✕Chris Wallace 2011 · A	23	47→41	47→55	48→45	37	231/284/364	133	322	15	6	32%	5%	82	+0.0	225/277/363	138	309	15	4	31%	5%	80	-0.2	222/273/356	135	306	15	2	31%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Adam Rosales 2006 · A	23	47→48	50→55	45	40	236/287/388	152	305	18	6	28%	5%	89	+0.5	226/287/368	142	285	12	8	24%	6%	84	+0.2	235/302/384	149	284	12	8	21%	6%	92	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps