Logan Driscoll
C Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/AATB | 429 | .263/.334/.414 | 12 | 4 | 70 | — | .226/.282/.335 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAATB | 294 | .292/.370/.473 | 7 | 1 | 95 | — | .260/.318/.401 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBTB | 37 | .171/.194/.257 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0.6 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/A/ROK2 orgs | 312 | .269/.368/.422 | 7 | 1 | 76 | — | .232/.300/.349 |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 29 | MLBMIA | 46 | .222/.288/.345 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ44% MLB | 30 | MLBMIA | 113 | .220/.286/.340 | 2 | 0 | 83 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ53% MLB | 31 | MLBMIA | 121 | .217/.282/.333 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 21 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 632 | 1.013 | 316 | 286 | 14 | 10 | 437 | 182 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 97 | 87 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 305 | 391 | 696 | 149 | 306 | 26 | 8 | 305 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 128 | 111 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 324 | 409 | 532 | 941 | 207 | 451 | 29 | 9 | 412 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 245 | 205 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 344 | 380 | 725 | 151 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 326 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 76 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 265 | 342 | 412 | 754 | 147 | 348 | 26 | 9 | 339 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 353 | 316 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 90 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 332 | 415 | 747 | 152 | 332 | 25 | 6 | 332 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 37 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 257 | 452 | 86 | 172 | 16 | 3 | 197 | 19 | -4 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +1 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 294 | 260 | 76 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 292 | 370 | 473 | 843 | 181 | 356 | 21 | 10 | 372 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 229 | 200 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 357 | 425 | 782 | 155 | 350 | 25 | 11 | 348 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 65 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 292 | 373 | 665 | 153 | 261 | 18 | 5 | 299 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 18 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 556 | 778 | 667 | 1.444 | 111 | 625 | 6 | 50 | 621 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 37 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 257 | 452 | 86 | 172 | 16 | 3 | 197 | 20 | -4 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +1 | 0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 97 | 89 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 242 | 315 | 557 | 124 | 248 | 34 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 128 | 115 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 323 | 409 | 732 | 157 | 411 | 41 | 6 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 245 | 218 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 261 | 303 | 564 | 119 | 220 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 76 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 263 | 286 | 549 | 86 | 297 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 353 | 324 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 107 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 287 | 346 | 632 | 114 | 308 | 30 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 37 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 257 | 452 | 86 | 172 | 16 | 3 | 197 | 19 | -4 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +1 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 294 | 269 | 70 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 318 | 401 | 720 | 141 | 327 | 24 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 229 | 209 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 291 | 340 | 630 | 110 | 320 | 31 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 65 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 262 | 350 | 612 | 150 | 227 | 25 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 556 | 462 | 1.017 | 77 | 470 | 6 | 28 | 480 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | INTL MLE | Peoria Javelinas | — | 21 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 632 | 1.013 | 316 | 286 | 14 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | INTL RAW | Peoria Javelinas | — | 21 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 632 | 1.013 | 316 | 286 | 14 | 10 | 437 | 182 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 225 | 204 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 85 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 221 | 284 | 348 | 632 | 127 | 347 | 38 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 225 | 198 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 62 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 288 | 365 | 470 | 835 | 182 | 383 | 28 | 9 | 366 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 245 | 218 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 261 | 303 | 564 | 119 | 233 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 245 | 205 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 344 | 380 | 725 | 151 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 326 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 394 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 131 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 282 | 335 | 617 | 109 | 313 | 31 | 4 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 384 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 110 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 263 | 334 | 414 | 748 | 151 | 335 | 26 | 7 | 333 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 304 | 75 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 302 | 382 | 683 | 135 | 309 | 24 | 6 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 331 | 295 | 82 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 67 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 351 | 447 | 798 | 169 | 332 | 20 | 9 | 352 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 312 | 282 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 297 | 340 | 637 | 113 | 309 | 28 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 312 | 268 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 368 | 422 | 789 | 153 | 340 | 23 | 12 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 225 | 205 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 85 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 284 | 346 | 630 | 127 | 341 | 38 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 245 | 220 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 118 | 220 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 395 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 131 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 282 | 334 | 617 | 109 | 306 | 31 | 4 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 304 | 75 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 302 | 382 | 683 | 135 | 310 | 24 | 6 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 312 | 281 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 297 | 342 | 638 | 114 | 309 | 28 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 304 | 75 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 302 | 382 | 683 | 135 | 310 | 24 | 6 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 312 | 281 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 297 | 342 | 638 | 114 | 309 | 28 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 30% | 362 | 329 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 93 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 295 | 362 | 657 | 132 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 30% | 46 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 288 | 345 | 633 | 123 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 85 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 44% | 256 | 233 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 293 | 357 | 650 | 129 | 292 | 26 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIA | 53% | 230 | 209 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 289 | 349 | 639 | 125 | 289 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 44% | 113 | 103 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 286 | 340 | 626 | 120 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIA | 53% | 121 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 282 | 333 | 616 | 117 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 271 | 248 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 265 | 306 | 571 | 101 | 257 | 25 | 7 | 268 | 73 | -9 | +0 | +1 | +10 | +6 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 122 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 161 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 264 | 306 | 570 | 101 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 268 | 73 | -21 | +0 | +3 | +24 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2204 | 2004 | 451 | 96 | 10 | 44 | 140 | 619 | 39 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 289 | 349 | 637 | 124 | 300 | 28 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -17 | +1 | -0 | +17 | +15 | 1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 133 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 183 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 289 | 349 | 637 | 124 | 300 | 28 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -16 | +1 | -0 | +17 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 229 PAwOBA .339 → .280 (−59)K% 25.3% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.043 | ×0.982 | 23.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×0.982 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.043 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .339 → .280; ISO .155 → .117; BABIP .350 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 65 PAwOBA .291 → .228 (−63)K% 18.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 3.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.940 | 15.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.940 | 3.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.031 | ×0.940 | 3.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 1.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .291 → .228; ISO .153 → .119; BABIP .261 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Rays · 18 PAwOBA .610 → .480 (−129)K% 5.6% → 8.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 8.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 50.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 29.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 38.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 8.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .610 → .480; ISO .111 → .106; BABIP .625 → .470. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 294 PAwOBA .363 → .309 (−54)K% 20.7% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.11% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.06% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 10.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .363 → .309; ISO .181 → .141; BABIP .356 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 353 PAwOBA .326 → .274 (−53)K% 25.5% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.50% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.23% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.22% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 24.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.42% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .326 → .274; ISO .152 → .116; BABIP .332 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 76 PAwOBA .330 → .255 (−75)K% 26.3% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 22.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .255; ISO .147 → .098; BABIP .348 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 245 PAwOBA .322 → .244 (−78)K% 21.6% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.63% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.45% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.61% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.89% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .322 → .244; ISO .151 → .125; BABIP .270 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 128 PAwOBA .404 → .308 (−97)K% 28.9% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.91% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.73% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×0.980 | 27.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.16% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×0.980 | 11.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.998 | ×0.980 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 4.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .404 → .308; ISO .207 → .151; BABIP .451 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).