Paul Wilson

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTFG #718MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP44ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDET	11	8	35	6.62	5.70	18.8%	19.9%	—	K 12.8% · BB 24.9% · FIP 6.96
2025	20	ADET	3	2	6	4.26	2.47	34.4%	18.8%	—	K 34.4% · BB 18.8% · FIP 2.57
2026	21	MIX2 levels	13	9	24	8.62	5.10	26.6%	23.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 29.5% · FIP 6.63
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	16	16	90	5.79	5.79	22.1%	20.0%	-0.9
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	11	11	63	5.36	5.21	23.1%	16.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	19	19	109	5.05	4.89	23.7%	14.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$4M2033Ext$5M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsNoah Dean (age 22) · Bailey Horn (age 23) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%22.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	12.8%	24.9%	-12.1%	3.3%	6.62	6.96	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	8	35	181	34	36	4	73%	3.2	18.8%	19.9%	-1.1%	2.2%	6.62	5.70	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.57	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	3	2	6	32	11	6	0	67%	2.1	34.4%	18.8%	15.6%	0.0%	4.26	2.47	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	20.0%	29.5%	-9.5%	2.7%	8.62	6.63	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	24	128	34	30	2	69%	1.8	26.6%	23.4%	3.1%	1.6%	8.62	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	16	16	90	380	84	76	11	100%	5.6	22.1%	20.0%	2.0%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	127	538	124	91	16	100%	5.5	23.1%	16.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.43	5.28	-0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	28	28	157	661	157	98	19	100%	5.6	23.7%	14.9%	8.8%	2.9%	5.12	4.96	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	175	739	177	100	21	100%	5.8	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.77	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	175	739	178	99	21	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	172	728	176	98	22	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.77	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	28	28	167	706	169	96	22	100%	6.0	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	160	674	160	93	22	100%	5.9	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	150	634	148	90	22	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.4%	5.07	5.16	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	63	266	61	45	7	100%	5.7	23.1%	16.9%	6.2%	2.8%	5.36	5.21	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	109	460	109	68	13	100%	5.7	23.7%	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.89	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	142	600	144	81	17	100%	5.9	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.70	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	153	646	156	86	18	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.4%	10.8%	2.8%	4.72	4.66	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	156	659	159	89	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.5%	10.7%	2.8%	4.71	4.70	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	154	650	156	88	19	100%	5.9	24.0%	13.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	25	25	149	629	149	87	19	100%	6.0	23.8%	13.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	141	595	139	84	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.3%	4.99	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	181	1066	4499	1072	628	131	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.46	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	118	25	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		27	19	66	341	60	89	9	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	58	200	1039	182	270	28	70%	2.4	17.5%	26.0%	-8.5%	2.7%	7.13	6.42	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	22.1%	20.0%	3.0%	—	4.98	23.6%	8.7%	459	-0.81	—	—	—
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	75
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	75
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	74
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	74
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	73
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	73
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	71
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	69
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	69
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	67
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	67
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	67
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	67
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	67
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	66
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	153	23.7%	14.5%	1.17	5.01
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44