Franklin Gómez — OGILVIE

Franklin Gómez P Lake County Captains

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%17.6%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3550

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	13	9	34	152	42	21	2	69%	2.6	18.8%	17.3%	1.5%	1.8%	3.67	4.71	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	13	9	34	152	42	21	2	69%	2.6	27.6%	13.8%	13.8%	1.3%	3.67	3.25	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	51	210	71	17	0	69%	3.9	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	0.0%	2.66	2.41	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	51	210	71	17	0	69%	3.9	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	0.0%	2.66	2.41	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	51	210	71	17	0	69%	3.9	33.8%	8.1%	25.7%	0.0%	2.66	1.30	—
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	23	16	82	370	83	41	5	70%	3.6	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	2.1%	4.28	4.52	—
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	23	16	82	370	83	41	5	70%	3.6	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	2.1%	4.28	4.52	—
2024	19	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	23	16	82	370	83	41	5	70%	3.6	22.4%	11.1%	11.4%	1.4%	4.28	3.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	72	307	68	34	2	65%	3.6	16.6%	13.0%	3.7%	0.9%	2.76	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	72	307	68	34	2	65%	3.6	16.6%	13.0%	3.7%	0.9%	2.76	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	72	307	68	34	2	65%	3.6	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	0.7%	2.76	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	75	308	80	26	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	2.8%	3.25	4.15	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	75	308	80	26	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	2.8%	3.25	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	CLE	12	12	58	239	66	18	5	100%	4.8	27.6%	7.5%	20.1%	2.1%	3.10	2.87	—
2026	21	AA RAW	CLE	4	4	17	69	14	8	2	100%	4.2	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.9%	3.78	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	78	327	64	36	8	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.76	4.65	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	80	339	71	35	9	100%	5.4	20.8%	10.2%	10.5%	2.5%	4.55	4.42	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	82	348	75	33	9	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.5%	4.39	4.28	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	83	352	77	33	9	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	2.5%	4.28	4.20	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	83	352	78	32	9	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.22	4.18	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	82	347	76	32	9	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.3%	12.8%	2.6%	4.22	4.22	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	80	336	80	29	9	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.03	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	76	321	76	28	9	100%	5.8	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.16	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	71	301	70	28	9	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.34	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	67	281	64	27	9	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.54	+0.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	62	260	58	26	9	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.5%	4.63	4.76	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	38	160	31	18	4	100%	5.4	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.76	4.65	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	59	249	52	26	6	100%	5.4	20.8%	10.2%	10.5%	2.5%	4.55	4.42	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	68	287	62	28	7	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.5%	4.39	4.28	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	74	312	68	29	8	100%	5.7	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	2.5%	4.28	4.20	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	71	29	8	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.22	4.18	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	71	30	8	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.3%	12.8%	2.6%	4.22	4.22	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	75	317	76	27	8	100%	6.2	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.03	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	72	304	72	27	9	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.16	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	68	287	67	26	9	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.34	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	63	266	61	25	9	100%	6.3	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.54	+0.3
2037	32	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	59	249	56	25	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.5%	4.63	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	728	3072	685	289	85	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.33	3.93	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	79	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.33	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		85	63	313	1347	252	165	22	74%	3.7	18.7%	12.3%	6.5%	1.6%	3.36	3.97	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	40	200	860	161	105	14	74%	3.7	18.7%	12.3%	6.5%	1.6%	3.36	3.97	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franklin Gómez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	17.6%	12.6%	2.6%	—	4.45	20.6%	10.3%	240	-0.55	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	86
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	85
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	85
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	84
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	83
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	83
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	83
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	83
Ryan Lawlor L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.24	20.1%	8.1%	107	-0.93	2.24	201	82
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	82
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	82
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	80
Yeffersson Yannuzzi L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	21	SP-	4.56	18.4%	12.1%	2.7%	.295	6.73	12.6%	-24.4%	10	+2.17	4.56	137	80
Armando Vasquez L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP-	4.22	14.7%	14.7%	0.9%	.318	5.52	21.2%	3.2%	94	+1.30	4.22	131	80
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	80
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	21.9%	9.7%	1.06	4.39
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04