Joneiker Arellano

Joneiker Arellano P ACL Reds

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%21.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	11	9	45	200	42	13	2	82%	4.1	14.3%	8.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.43	3.75	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	11	9	45	200	42	13	2	82%	4.1	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.43	2.67	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	25	134	21	13	6	33%	2.1	10.7%	12.1%	-1.5%	5.9%	16.42	6.98	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	25	134	21	13	6	33%	2.1	10.7%	12.1%	-1.5%	5.9%	16.42	6.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	4	25	134	21	13	6	33%	2.1	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.5%	16.42	6.14	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	0.0%	3.77	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	0.0%	3.77	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	26.7%	8.3%	18.3%	0.0%	3.77	1.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	8.09	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	8.09	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	12.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	4	4	20	84	19	8	2	100%	5.0	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	4.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	3.96	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	203	81	20	100%	5.6	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		30	15	86	416	57	41	13	50%	2.9	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	3.1%	8.55	4.90	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	35	200	964	131	94	30	50%	2.9	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	3.1%	8.55	4.90	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joneiker Arellano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.9%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.34	23.0%	13.6%	20	-0.22	—	—	—
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	84
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	383	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	79
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	79
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	79
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79
Jeronimo Castro R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	25.2%	8.2%	2.6%	.362	3.85	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.40	3.19	158	78
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	78
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	78
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	78
Inohan Paniagua R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	21	SW	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.1%	.298	4.28	18.8%	8.2%	297	+0.60	3.68	473	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	77