Joneiker Arellano
P
ACL Reds
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | 11 | 9 | 45 | 200 | 42 | 13 | 2 | 82% | 4.1 | 14.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 4.43 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | 11 | 9 | 45 | 200 | 42 | 13 | 2 | 82% | 4.1 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 1.0% | 4.43 | 2.67 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 4 | 25 | 134 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 33% | 2.1 | 10.7% | 12.1% | -1.5% | 5.6% | 16.42 | 6.81 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 4 | 25 | 134 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 33% | 2.1 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 16.42 | 6.14 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 20% | 2.9 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 3.77 | 2.89 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 20% | 2.9 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 3.77 | 1.91 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 1.3 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 30.38 | 8.09 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 1.3 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 30.38 | 12.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.79 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 15 | 86 | 416 | 57 | 41 | 13 | 50% | 2.9 | 13.6% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 8.55 | 4.87 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 35 | 200 | 964 | 131 | 94 | 30 | 50% | 2.9 | 13.6% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 8.55 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joneiker Arellano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 24.0% | 15.3% | 20 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 85 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 79 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 79 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 78 |
| Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 78 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 77 |
| Rico Garcia R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 77 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 77 |
| Wilmer Ortega R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .304 | 5.83 | 16.1% | 1.8% | 30 | +1.97 | 3.62 | 158 | 77 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 77 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 76 |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 75 |
| Grant Holman R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 75 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 75 |
| Daniel Bies R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 75 |