Chalniel Arias
P
FCL Yankees
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%23.2%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 15 | 2 | 32 | 137 | 44 | 16 | 0 | 13% | 2.1 | 21.8% | 14.6% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 3.69 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 15 | 2 | 32 | 137 | 44 | 16 | 0 | 13% | 2.1 | 32.1% | 11.7% | 20.4% | 0.0% | 3.69 | 1.84 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 11 | 11 | 47 | 196 | 61 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 0.4% | 3.09 | 2.91 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 11 | 11 | 47 | 196 | 61 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 31.1% | 8.7% | 22.4% | 0.5% | 3.09 | 1.86 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 1.9 | 23.8% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.09 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 1.9 | 23.8% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | NYY | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.4 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 1.80 | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | 3 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 17 | 74 | 16 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.91 | 3.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 46 | 195 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 180 | 759 | 187 | 76 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 3.95 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 85 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 3.95 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 78 | 41 | 1 | 52% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 0.2% | 3.32 | 2.84 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 37 | 200 | 847 | 181 | 95 | 2 | 52% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 0.2% | 3.32 | 2.84 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chalniel Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 142 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.61 | 328 | 85 |
| Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 84 |
| Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 84 |
| Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.18 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 188 | +0.70 | 3.07 | 233 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.73 | 239 | 81 |
| John Matthews R 2021 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 80 |
| Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 80 |
| Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.7% | .317 | 4.30 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.34 | 3.68 | 447 | 79 |
| Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.17 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 106 | +1.14 | 4.03 | 164 | 79 |
| Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 78 |
| Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.96 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 163 | -0.40 | 3.74 | 240 | 77 |
| Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.1% | 2.2% | 153 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 77 |
| Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 77 |
| Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 1.4 | 47 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.13 | 4.36 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 1.5 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 1.7 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 1.3 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 1.6 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 1.3 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 1.3 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |