Chalniel Arias
P
FCL Yankees
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 15 | 2 | 32 | 137 | 44 | 16 | 0 | 21.8% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 3.69 | 3.10 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 11 | 11 | 47 | 196 | 61 | 17 | 1 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 0.4% | 3.09 | 2.93 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | NYY | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 14 | 84 | 354 | 76 | 41 | 1 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 0.2% | 3.21 | 2.89 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 33 | 200 | 843 | 181 | 98 | 2 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 0.2% | 3.21 | 2.89 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chalniel Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.10 | 24.5% | 15.9% | 126 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 94 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 93 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 91 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 90 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 89 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 89 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 89 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 88 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.10 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .309 | 4.62 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.52 | 4.10 | 215 | 88 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 88 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 88 |
| Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 88 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 88 |
| Camden Minacci R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.67 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .371 | 3.60 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 61 | -0.07 | 3.60 | 110 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $7M | +$4M | ||