Chalniel Arias — OGILVIE

Chalniel Arias P FCL Yankees

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%23.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	15	2	32	137	44	16	0	13%	2.1	21.8%	14.6%	7.2%	0.0%	3.69	3.10	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	15	2	32	137	44	16	0	13%	2.1	32.1%	11.7%	20.4%	0.0%	3.69	1.84	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	11	47	196	61	17	1	100%	4.2	21.2%	10.8%	10.3%	0.5%	3.09	2.97	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	11	47	196	61	17	1	100%	4.2	21.2%	10.8%	10.3%	0.5%	3.09	2.97	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	11	47	196	61	17	1	100%	4.2	31.1%	8.7%	22.4%	0.5%	3.09	1.86	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	1	6	21	5	0	0	33%	1.9	23.8%	0.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.59	1.09	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	1	6	21	5	0	0	33%	1.9	23.8%	0.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.59	1.09	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	3	1	6	21	5	0	0	33%	1.9	23.8%	0.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.59	1.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	2	2	3	13	2	0	0	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	2	2	3	13	2	0	0	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYY	2	2	3	13	2	0	0	100%	1.4	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.75	1.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	46	195	47	21	6	100%	5.1	23.9%	10.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	48	201	49	20	6	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	48	203	50	20	6	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.24	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	48	203	51	20	6	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.22	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	47	200	50	20	6	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	23	97	23	10	3	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.5%	13.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.51	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	33	139	34	14	4	100%	5.5	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	3.1%	4.47	4.40	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	39	165	41	16	5	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	3.1%	4.40	4.35	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	42	177	44	17	5	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	3.1%	4.35	4.33	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	43	182	45	18	6	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.36	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	180	759	187	76	24	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	3.1%	4.41	3.99	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	85	27	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	3.1%	4.41	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		31	16	87	367	78	41	1	52%	2.8	21.4%	11.2%	10.1%	0.3%	3.32	2.87	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	37	200	847	181	95	2	52%	2.8	21.4%	11.2%	10.1%	0.3%	3.32	2.87	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chalniel Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	23.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.31	24.4%	14.2%	142	-0.26	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	85
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	84
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	77
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	77
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	77
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	76
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	76
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	24.4%	10.2%	1.13	4.36
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41