Justin Lamkin

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#676ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	8	8	40	2.04	2.80	34.9%	9.2%	—	K 26.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.56
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	—	—	0	4.17	4.17	25.5%	9.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	4	4	23	3.97	3.91	25.8%	8.9%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	6	6	36	3.89	3.83	26.0%	8.4%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 8.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 73%

CompsSam Weatherly (age 22) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Marc Rzepczynski (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%25.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	152	53	14	4	100%	5.0	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.04	3.56	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	152	53	14	4	100%	5.0	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.04	3.56	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	40	152	53	14	4	100%	5.0	34.9%	9.2%	25.7%	2.6%	2.04	2.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	9.7%	15.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	54	227	58	20	7	100%	5.4	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.03	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	54	228	59	19	7	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.4%	17.6%	2.9%	4.01	3.95	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	54	229	60	19	7	100%	6.0	26.1%	8.4%	17.6%	2.9%	3.98	3.95	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	224	58	19	7	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	3.0%	3.99	3.99	+0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	23	97	25	9	3	100%	5.8	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.7%	3.97	3.91	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	36	152	40	13	4	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.4%	17.6%	2.7%	3.89	3.83	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	47	15	5	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.4%	17.6%	2.7%	3.86	3.83	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	49	16	5	100%	5.6	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.87	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	147	622	162	53	17	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	2.7%	3.89	3.47	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	220	72	23	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	2.7%	3.89	3.47	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		8	8	40	152	41	18	3	100%	5.0	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.04	3.56	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	766	206	89	18	100%	5.0	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	2.3%	2.04	3.56	+3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 28 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.56 (+1.12)K% 34.9% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.86%	—	×0.770	26.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×1.150	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 11 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.75 (+1.16)K% 34.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.88%	—	×0.810	28.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.100	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.58%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lamkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.98	26.0%	17.4%	162	-0.19	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	83
Marc Rzepczynski L 2009 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	23.0%	11.5%	2.7%	.268	3.94	20.5%	11.1%	172	-0.15	2.43	491	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	80
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	79
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	79
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	79
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	78
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	78
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	77
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	77
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	77
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	76
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	76
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	76
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	25.9%	8.8%	1.13	4.05
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*