Justin Lamkin
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 22
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93102vR 111
ERA4.04
FIP4.04
K%24.5%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%16.8%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 8 | 8 | 40 | 152 | 53 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 2.04 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 3.99 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 92 | 374 | 107 | 31 | 11 | — | — | 28.7% | 8.4% | 20.4% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 3.98 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 3.61 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 58 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 62 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 62 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 61 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.0% | 7.2% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.87 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.80 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 18.8% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 55 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.0% | 7.2% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 37 | 212 | 896 | 231 | 65 | 26 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.40 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 218 | 61 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.40 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 40 | 152 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 2.04 | 3.90 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 766 | 209 | 80 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 2.04 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lamkin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | — | 3.86 | 25.5% | 18.3% | 167 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Varnell L 2027 · 2.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.89 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .252 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 202 | +1.18 | 2.89 | 248 | 85 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 84 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 82 |
| Andre Davis L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.14 | 19.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | .320 | 5.00 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 98 | +0.86 | 4.14 | 154 | 81 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.18 | 2.93 | 431 | 81 |
| Reid Detmers L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.95 | 29.9% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .335 | 4.27 | 25.4% | 16.6% | 443 | +0.32 | 2.84 | 690 | 80 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 79 |
| Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 79 |
| Austin Emener L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 79 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.21 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.81 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.60 | 3.21 | 372 | 79 |
| Austin Warner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.37 | 3.88 | 491 | 78 |
| Connelly Early L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.30 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .292 | 3.29 | 26.2% | 17.0% | 211 | -0.01 | 2.52 | 315 | 78 |
| Rodney Boone L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.29 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .286 | 4.52 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 197 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 311 | 78 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 77 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.21 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | .279 | 4.95 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 229 | +1.74 | 3.21 | 332 | 77 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 76 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.38 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.06 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 332 | +0.68 | 2.44 | 496 | 76 |
| Nick Zwack L 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .299 | 5.99 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.89 | 3.10 | 271 | 76 |
| Brandon Williamson L 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.75 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .340 | 4.60 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 288 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 414 | 76 |
| Cade Povich L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.97 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .293 | 3.99 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 414 | +0.02 | 3.77 | 571 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 25.5% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 3.91 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Héctor Rondón ('20) | 6 | 53 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |