Justin Lamkin — OGILVIE

Justin Lamkin P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%24.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%16.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD3560

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	8	8	40	152	53	14	4	100%	5.0	27.2%	10.5%	16.8%	3.2%	2.04	3.90	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	8	8	40	152	53	14	4	100%	5.0	27.2%	10.5%	16.8%	3.2%	2.04	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	KC	6	6	28	109	38	11	2	100%	4.7	34.9%	10.1%	24.8%	1.8%	1.27	2.44	—
2026	22	AA RAW	KC	2	2	11	43	15	3	2	100%	5.7	34.9%	7.0%	27.9%	4.7%	3.97	3.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	54	230	58	18	7	100%	5.5	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.96	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	56	236	60	18	7	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.4%	18.1%	2.9%	3.94	3.88	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	57	239	62	17	7	100%	5.7	25.8%	7.3%	18.6%	2.9%	3.88	3.83	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	57	239	62	17	7	100%	6.3	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	2.9%	3.85	3.82	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	56	236	61	17	7	100%	6.2	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	3.0%	3.85	3.86	+0.7
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	27	114	29	9	3	100%	5.4	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.84	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	39	165	42	12	4	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.4%	18.1%	2.7%	3.82	3.76	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	46	194	50	14	5	100%	5.8	25.8%	7.3%	18.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.71	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	54	15	6	100%	6.1	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	2.7%	3.73	3.70	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	50	211	55	16	6	100%	6.2	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	2.8%	3.73	3.74	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	212	894	230	66	24	100%	5.7	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.77	3.36	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	62	23	100%	5.8	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.77	3.36	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		8	8	40	152	41	16	5	100%	5.0	27.2%	10.5%	16.8%	3.2%	2.04	3.90	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	766	209	80	25	100%	5.0	27.2%	10.5%	16.8%	3.2%	2.04	3.90	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lamkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	—	3.89	25.5%	18.1%	167	-0.20	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	84
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	83
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	82
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	81
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	80
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	80
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	79
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	79
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	79
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	79
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	77
Rodney Boone L 2022 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP	4.51	22.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.286	4.52	19.0%	9.7%	197	+0.01	3.64	311	76
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	76
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	17.9%	5.3%	229	+1.76	3.19	332	76
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.2%	288	+0.97	3.62	439	76
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.05	23.3%	13.9%	414	-0.03	3.81	623	76
Will Dion L 2022 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.04	19.8%	11.3%	332	+0.64	3.09	526	75
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	25.5%	7.5%	1.14	3.94
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04