Carson Messina
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%24.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 1.22 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 1.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 10 | 31 | 124 | 39 | 16 | 1 | 91% | 2.8 | 22.3% | 15.6% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 2.93 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 32 | 133 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.2% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.2% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 62 | 257 | 71 | 29 | 5 | — | — | 27.7% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.82 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 12 | 10 | 33 | 133 | 30 | 19 | 1 | 83% | 2.7 | 22.3% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 3.31 | 3.60 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 61 | 200 | 814 | 182 | 119 | 8 | 83% | 2.7 | 22.3% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 3.31 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Messina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 24.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.20 | 24.5% | 15.2% | 33 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 86 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 83 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 83 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 82 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 80 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.83 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.83 | 358 | 78 |
| River Ryan R 2029 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 77 |
| Michael Grove R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 77 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 77 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 77 |
| Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 76 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.56 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | .392 | 4.05 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 198 | -0.51 | 3.53 | 281 | 76 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 76 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 75 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 75 |
| Chris Clark R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.41 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .362 | 4.78 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 303 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 322 | 75 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 75 |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 74 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 32 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 1.14 | 4.28 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |