Carson Messina

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#953ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKTOR	1	0	2	9.00	1.10	22.2%	0.0%	—	K 22.2% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.22
2026	20	MIX2 levels	19	18	57	3.14	3.33	27.3%	16.5%	—	K 19.7% · BB 19.6% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.58	5.58	21.0%	18.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	4	4	22	5.22	5.06	22.4%	15.5%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTOR	6	6	32	4.90	4.73	23.3%	13.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsMarco Jimenez (age 22) · Alonzo Tredwell (age 22) · Dane Acker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%21.0%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.22	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.22	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	57	249	68	41	2	95%	3.0	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.0%	3.14	4.49	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	57	249	68	41	2	95%	3.0	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.0%	3.14	4.49	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	57	249	68	41	2	95%	3.0	27.3%	16.5%	10.8%	0.8%	3.14	3.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	18.4%	2.5%	2.8%	5.58	5.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	44	185	42	29	5	100%	5.5	22.4%	15.5%	7.0%	2.8%	5.22	5.06	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	44	185	43	25	5	100%	5.5	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.7%	4.90	4.73	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	44	185	44	23	5	100%	5.5	23.9%	12.2%	11.6%	2.7%	4.65	4.50	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	43	182	44	21	5	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.36	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	43	182	45	21	5	100%	6.2	24.4%	11.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	42	178	43	20	5	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.37	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	22	93	21	14	3	100%	5.5	22.4%	15.5%	7.0%	2.8%	5.22	5.06	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	32	135	31	18	4	100%	5.3	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.7%	4.90	4.73	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	36	152	36	19	4	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.2%	11.6%	2.7%	4.65	4.50	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	38	160	39	18	4	100%	6.3	24.2%	11.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.36	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	39	165	40	19	4	100%	6.5	24.4%	11.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	39	165	40	19	5	100%	6.5	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.37	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	206	871	208	107	24	100%	5.7	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.61	4.13	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	104	23	100%	5.7	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.61	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		20	18	59	258	51	49	3	90%	3.0	19.8%	18.9%	0.9%	1.0%	3.34	4.38	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	61	200	870	172	165	9	90%	3.0	19.8%	18.9%	0.9%	1.0%	3.34	4.38	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 41 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.95 (+1.14)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.26%	—	×0.740	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.89%	—	×1.180	21.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 16 IPFIP 1.74 → 3.03 (+1.29)K% 33.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.90%	—	×0.680	23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.86%	—	×1.250	14.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Messina (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.76	23.2%	9.5%	131	-0.82	—	—	—
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	83
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	82
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	81
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	81
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.82	438	80
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	80
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	79
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	79
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	79
Cristian Hernandez R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	19	SP	4.39	23.5%	19.9%	1.4%	.269	5.41	18.1%	2.6%	62	+1.02	4.39	116	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	78
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	78
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	78
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	43	23.4%	13.4%	1.06	4.80
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*