Carson Messina — OGILVIE

Carson Messina P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%22.9%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6055

CTRL4040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.22	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.22	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	18	57	249	68	41	2	95%	3.0	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.0%	3.14	4.49	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	18	57	249	68	41	2	95%	3.0	19.7%	19.6%	0.1%	1.0%	3.14	4.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TOR	5	4	16	59	20	7	0	80%	3.2	33.9%	11.9%	22.0%	0.0%	1.69	1.74	—
2026	20	A RAW	TOR	14	14	41	190	48	34	2	100%	2.9	25.3%	17.9%	7.4%	1.1%	3.70	3.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	59	249	58	32	7	100%	5.4	23.3%	12.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.73	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	62	261	63	30	7	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	64	271	67	28	8	100%	5.3	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	66	277	71	27	8	100%	5.5	25.5%	9.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.11	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	281	73	27	8	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.10	4.03	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	281	73	27	8	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.00	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	277	72	26	8	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.6%	16.5%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	268	69	26	8	100%	5.8	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.13	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	29	122	29	16	4	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.73	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	46	22	5	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	54	228	57	24	6	100%	5.4	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	59	249	63	25	7	100%	5.4	25.5%	9.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.11	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	67	24	7	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.10	4.03	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	68	25	7	100%	6.2	26.0%	9.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.00	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	68	25	7	100%	6.2	26.0%	9.6%	16.5%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	60	253	66	25	7	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.13	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	432	1825	464	185	52	100%	5.6	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.23	3.79	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	215	86	24	100%	5.6	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.23	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		20	18	59	258	51	49	3	90%	3.0	19.8%	18.9%	0.9%	1.0%	3.34	4.38	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	61	200	870	172	165	9	90%	3.0	19.8%	18.9%	0.9%	1.0%	3.34	4.38	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Messina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	22.9%	14.6%	3.0%	—	4.47	24.2%	12.6%	185	-0.55	—	—	—
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	86
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	85
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	80
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	80
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	80
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	80
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	79
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	79
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	79
Aidan Curry R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	21.7%	13.5%	3.5%	.384	4.73	21.5%	9.5%	260	-0.18	3.34	410	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	77
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	77
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	61	25.1%	10.6%	1.10	4.33
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99