Dylan Howard — OGILVIE

Dylan Howard P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%19.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	0.8%	3.03	3.21	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	0.8%	3.03	3.21	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	0.8%	3.03	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	8.1%	6.98	8.08	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	8.1%	6.98	8.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	19.7%	12.4%	7.4%	6.5%	6.98	6.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	98	415	85	35	11	100%	5.5	20.5%	8.4%	12.0%	2.7%	4.37	4.32	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	421	88	35	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.25	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	421	89	34	12	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.26	4.23	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	414	88	34	12	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.26	4.27	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	95	402	85	34	12	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.35	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	384	80	33	12	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.48	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	74	32	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	80	336	75	28	12	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.5%	4.58	4.59	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	311	68	28	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.9%	3.7%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	285	61	27	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	4.0%	4.93	5.07	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	42	177	36	15	5	100%	5.2	20.5%	8.4%	12.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	59	23	7	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.21	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	79	334	71	27	9	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.19	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	84	355	76	29	10	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.23	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	85	359	76	30	10	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.31	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	73	30	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.43	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	79	334	69	30	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	3.2%	4.51	4.61	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	69	26	11	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.53	4.54	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	63	26	11	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.9%	12.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	57	25	11	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.9%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	122	724	3058	649	262	93	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.6%	12.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.07	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	72	26	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		38	35	157	706	112	87	40	92%	4.1	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.6%	5.49	6.39	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	897	143	111	50	92%	4.1	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.6%	5.49	6.39	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	19.4%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.27	20.9%	12.6%	298	-0.19	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	91
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	85
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	84
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	81
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	81
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	81
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	81
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	84	21.1%	8.5%	1.19	4.44
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17