Hiro Wyatt — OGILVIE

Hiro Wyatt P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL4050

CMD3555

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	0.5%	3.86	3.43	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	0.4%	3.86	2.51	—
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	2.5%	4.78	4.34	—
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.3%	4.78	3.54	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	14.4%	15.3%	-0.9%	0.0%	3.21	3.82	+0.2
ROS	21	MLB	KC	11	11	51	215	37	21	6	100%	4.6	17.3%	9.5%	7.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	9.5%	7.8%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	KC	—	—	79	338	61	37	6	—	—	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	1.8%	4.23	4.44	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	KC	11	11	54	226	44	20	6	100%	4.9	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.49	+0.0
2028	23	MLB	KC	10	10	56	235	49	20	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.31	+0.2
2029	24	MLB	KC	10	10	57	241	51	19	7	100%	5.7	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.29	4.20	+0.2
2030	25	MLB	KC	10	10	58	244	53	19	7	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.7%	4.21	4.15	+0.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	10	10	58	244	54	19	7	100%	5.8	22.0%	7.9%	14.1%	2.7%	4.16	4.12	+0.3
2032	27	MLB	KC	9	9	57	240	53	19	7	100%	6.3	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.8%	4.16	4.16	+0.3
2033	28	MLB	KC	9	9	55	233	51	19	7	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.25	+0.2
2034	29	MLB	KC	9	9	53	222	48	19	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.31	4.38	+0.1
2035	30	MLB	KC	8	8	49	209	44	18	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.56	-0.0
2036	31	MLB	KC	8	8	46	195	41	18	7	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.0%	11.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.76	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	KC	5	5	26	110	21	10	3	100%	5.2	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	2.7%	4.53	4.44	+0.0
2028	23	MLB	KC	8	8	41	173	36	14	5	100%	5.1	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.26	+0.1
2029	24	MLB	KC	8	8	47	198	42	16	5	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.24	4.15	+0.2
2030	25	MLB	KC	9	9	51	215	47	17	6	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.6%	4.16	4.10	+0.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	9	9	53	224	49	18	6	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.9%	14.1%	2.6%	4.11	4.07	+0.3
2032	27	MLB	KC	9	9	53	224	49	18	6	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.7%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
2033	28	MLB	KC	9	9	52	220	48	18	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+0.2
2034	29	MLB	KC	8	8	50	211	46	18	6	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.33	+0.1
2035	30	MLB	KC	8	8	47	198	42	17	6	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.50	+0.0
2036	31	MLB	KC	7	7	44	186	39	17	6	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.0%	11.9%	3.3%	4.58	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			79	79	463	1954	418	162	55	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.27	3.89	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	181	70	24	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.27	3.89	+3.5
Career	—			46	41	168	735	119	84	10	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.4%	4.19	3.93	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—			55	49	200	877	142	100	12	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.4%	4.19	3.93	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hiro Wyatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.3%	9.5%	2.8%	—	4.33	20.5%	12.1%	166	-0.45	—	—	—
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	92
Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	17.4%	9.5%	2.2%	.343	5.04	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.02	4.02	412	89
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	88
Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	87
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	87
Jordany Ventura R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	87
TJ Nichols R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	86
John Klein R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	86
Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	85
Andrew Cabezas R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.78	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.19	4.23	300	85
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP	4.48	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.44	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.04	2.88	245	85
Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	84
Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	84
Drew McDaniel R 2027 · 5.03 FIP	22	SP	5.03	14.1%	9.1%	3.6%	.323	5.65	18.6%	8.5%	122	+0.62	4.72	200	84
Marcelo Perez R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	84
Will Rudy R 2027 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	15.2%	9.2%	3.0%	.299	5.34	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.69	4.65	194	84
Payton Martin R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	18.1%	8.4%	3.7%	.308	4.78	14.7%	3.0%	73	+0.09	3.05	266	83
Brandon White R 2028 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	16.7%	10.3%	3.8%	.264	4.10	17.7%	10.4%	245	-1.01	3.90	264	83
Jeremy Lee R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	54	21.0%	8.4%	1.12	4.37
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94