Hiro Wyatt

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#623ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	14	61	3.86	2.51	23.6%	9.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.44
2025	20	AKC	21	20	79	4.78	3.54	22.3%	8.3%	—	K 16.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.45
2026	21	AKC	7	7	28	3.21	3.10	19.5%	13.0%	—	K 14.4% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.02	5.02	16.8%	11.4%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBKC	4	4	21	4.69	4.59	18.8%	10.3%	0.2
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBKC	6	6	32	4.50	4.39	20.1%	9.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23) · Chih-Jung Liu (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%16.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	0.5%	3.86	3.44	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	0.5%	3.86	3.44	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	0.4%	3.86	2.51	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.45	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.45	—
2025	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.3%	4.78	3.54	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	14.4%	15.3%	-0.9%	0.0%	3.21	3.82	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	14.4%	15.3%	-0.9%	0.0%	3.21	3.82	—
2026	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	0.0%	3.21	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	11.4%	5.4%	2.8%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	59	250	47	26	7	100%	5.4	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.80	4.70	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	59	250	50	24	7	100%	5.4	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.7%	4.61	4.50	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	55	231	48	21	6	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	2.7%	4.47	4.38	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	55	231	49	21	6	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.1%	12.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.36	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	225	47	21	6	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.40	4.39	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	50	213	45	20	6	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.9%	4.45	4.48	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	47	198	41	19	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.61	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	42	178	36	18	6	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.79	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	21	89	17	9	2	100%	5.2	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	2.5%	4.69	4.59	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	32	135	27	13	3	100%	5.3	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.5%	4.50	4.39	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	37	156	32	14	4	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	2.5%	4.36	4.27	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	42	177	37	16	4	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.1%	12.0%	2.5%	4.29	4.25	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	38	17	5	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.2%	11.9%	2.6%	4.29	4.28	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	38	17	5	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.36	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	41	173	36	17	5	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	2.8%	4.42	4.48	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	38	160	33	16	5	100%	6.3	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.66	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	296	1249	257	118	33	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.4%	11.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.01	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	80	22	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.4%	11.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		46	41	168	735	119	84	11	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.5%	4.19	3.98	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	49	200	877	142	100	13	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.5%	4.19	3.98	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 28 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.82 (+0.72)K% 19.5% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.740	14.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.01%	—	×1.180	15.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 79 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.45 (+0.93)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.740	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.31%	—	×1.180	9.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.086	×1.300	2.74%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 34 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.39 (+0.92)K% 22.5% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.680	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.250	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 27 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.51 (+0.90)K% 25.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.24%	—	×0.740	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.180	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷1.020	×1.300	1.24%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hiro Wyatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.53	19.9%	10.2%	173	-0.49	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	92
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	87
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	86
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	86
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	84
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	82
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Caleb Boushley R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP	4.11	14.2%	10.0%	1.7%	.351	3.21	18.3%	14.2%	163	-0.90	3.05	790	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	20.1%	9.7%	1.10	4.59
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*