Hiro Wyatt — OGILVIE

Hiro Wyatt P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%17.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL4050

CMD3555

K†4060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	0.5%	3.86	3.44	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	0.5%	3.86	3.44	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	78%	3.4	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	0.4%	3.86	2.51	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.45	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.45	—
2025	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	95%	3.8	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.3%	4.78	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	14.4%	15.3%	-0.9%	0.0%	3.21	3.82	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	14.4%	15.3%	-0.9%	0.0%	3.21	3.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	KC	7	7	28	123	24	16	0	100%	4.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	0.0%	3.21	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	75	315	61	29	9	100%	5.0	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.54	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	78	327	68	28	9	100%	5.5	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.35	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	79	335	72	28	9	100%	5.7	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.33	4.24	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	80	339	74	27	9	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.8%	4.24	4.18	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	339	75	27	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	8.1%	14.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.15	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	334	80	25	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	2.8%	4.03	3.92	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	77	324	77	24	9	100%	5.9	23.9%	7.5%	16.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.01	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	309	73	24	9	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.09	4.14	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	69	291	68	23	9	100%	6.3	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	3.3%	4.23	4.32	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	64	271	62	23	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	3.5%	4.40	4.52	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	37	156	30	14	4	100%	5.3	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.42	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	56	236	49	20	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.35	4.24	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	66	279	60	23	7	100%	5.5	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.6%	4.22	4.13	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	71	300	65	24	8	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.6%	4.13	4.07	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	68	25	8	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.1%	14.0%	2.6%	4.08	4.04	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	74	23	8	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	2.6%	3.91	3.80	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	73	23	8	100%	6.0	23.9%	7.5%	16.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.89	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	70	296	70	23	8	100%	5.8	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	2.8%	3.96	4.01	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	64	22	8	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	3.0%	4.10	4.19	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	61	258	59	22	8	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	3.2%	4.26	4.38	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	645	2723	612	218	74	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	2.7%	4.11	3.71	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	68	23	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	2.7%	4.11	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		46	41	168	735	119	84	11	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.5%	4.19	3.98	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	49	200	877	142	100	13	89%	3.6	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	1.5%	4.19	3.98	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hiro Wyatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	17.3%	9.9%	2.9%	—	4.37	20.5%	11.9%	232	-0.47	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	92
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	87
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	86
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	86
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	86
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	86
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	84
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	83
Hunter Dobbins R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	16.7%	8.6%	3.0%	.371	3.53	18.8%	10.7%	312	-0.88	3.00	498	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Aneudy Acosta R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	21	SP	3.81	15.4%	10.7%	1.2%	.289	3.75	13.3%	3.9%	30	-0.06	3.28	132	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	73	22.0%	8.2%	1.13	4.30
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58