Hiro Wyatt — OGILVIE

Hiro Wyatt P Columbia Fireflies

+0.5 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2031

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.4%

IP73

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2031

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	18	14	61	263	62	25	1	16.6%	11.6%	0.5%	3.86	3.44	+1.0
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	21	20	79	349	78	29	8	16.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.47	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	2	2	8	35	9	5	0	—	—	—	1.12	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	KC	13	13	73	308	64	29	9	20.9%	9.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2026 Total	21	MLB	KC	—	—	81	343	73	34	9	21.4%	10.0%	2.6%	4.17	4.06	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	KC	14	14	76	323	71	29	9	22.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.37	4.30	+0.7
2028	23	MLB	KC	14	14	79	335	77	29	9	22.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.16	+0.9
2029	24	MLB	KC	15	15	81	344	81	29	10	23.5%	8.4%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+1.0
2030	25	MLB	KC	17	17	94	399	95	33	11	23.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.08	4.03	+1.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	18	18	101	428	103	35	12	24.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.03	4.00	+1.5
2032	27	MLB	KC	19	19	105	442	106	36	12	24.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.02	4.01	+1.5
2033	28	MLB	KC	19	19	105	443	106	37	12	24.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.03	4.04	+1.5
2034	29	MLB	KC	19	19	103	433	103	36	12	23.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.06	4.08	+1.4
2035	30	MLB	KC	18	18	100	420	99	35	12	23.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.11	4.15	+1.3
2036	31	MLB	KC	17	17	96	405	95	35	12	23.4%	8.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+1.1
2037	32	MLB	KC	17	17	92	389	90	34	12	23.2%	8.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.31	+1.0
2038	33	MLB	KC	16	16	88	372	85	33	12	22.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.35	4.40	+0.8
2039	34	MLB	KC	15	15	84	353	80	32	11	22.5%	9.1%	3.3%	4.45	4.51	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			41	36	148	647	110	70	11	17.1%	10.8%	1.7%	4.21	3.96	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			56	49	200	876	149	95	15	17.1%	10.8%	1.7%	4.21	3.96	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hiro Wyatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.9%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.18	22.8%	14.2%	237	-0.32	—	—	—
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	92
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	92
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	91
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SW	3.86	19.3%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	5.05	14.0%	3.4%	143	+1.19	3.86	280	91
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	91
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	90
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	90
Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	89
RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SW	4.50	20.3%	8.4%	3.7%	.270	3.45	22.5%	12.8%	177	-1.05	3.09	231	89
Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	89
Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	89
Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	89
Johnny Barbato R 2028 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	89
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	88
Marc Brakeman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.91	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.06	3.85	156	88
J.C. Flowers R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	23	SW	3.57	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.95	16.5%	1.9%	184	+1.38	3.57	281	88
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	88
Drew Anderson R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	22	SW	3.39	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.66	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.27	3.11	450	88
Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.5	$15M	+$14M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.4	$14M	+$11M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.3	$14M	+$9M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$10M		$71M	+$61M