RJ Austin

OF Frederick Keys
Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 199 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2417ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202521ABAL68.263/.364/.3160958—.237/.318/.288
202622A+BAL274.256/.358/.41573169—.208/.284/.331
2027PROJMLE23MLBBAL1.217/.285/.3460075-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB24MLBBAL59.221/.289/.3561279-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB25MLBBAL115.223/.292/.3633381-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed99
K%84
Whiff%82
Z-Con%81
wRC+54
ISO53
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%
CompsTroy Stokes Jr. (age 23) · Michael Guldberg (age 23) · John Rhodes (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .285 / .346
PA1
HR0
K%25
BB%7
BABIP271
ISO135
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$3M———
2033Arb-2$5M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202521 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 6857 15300 7102 91 263364316679 53319 1510 310 58 — — — — — —
202622 A+Frederick Keys — 274234 60847 28489 315 256358415772 158291 1810 345 69 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202521 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6859 14300 5142 91 237318288606 51281 217 254 58 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 274245 51636 17639 315 208284331615 122245 236 270 69 — — — — — —
202521 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6859 14300 5142 91 237318288606 51311 217 254 58 — — — — — —
202521 A RAWDelmarva Shorebirds — 6857 15300 7102 91 263364316679 53319 1510 310 58 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 274245 51636 17639 315 208284331615 122251 236 270 69 — — — — — —
202622 A+ RAWFrederick Keys — 274234 60847 28489 315 256358415772 158291 1810 345 69 — — — — — —
202521 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6861 14300 5142 91 230318279597 49281 217 254 58 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 274246 51636 17639 315 207284329613 122245 236 270 69 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202521 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6861 14300 5142 91 230318279597 49281 217 254 58 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 274246 51636 17639 315 207284329613 122245 236 270 69 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEBAL 0% 384348 731328 27966 112 214281338620 125267 257 279 75 -11 +1 -1 -2 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXBAL 0% 11 0000 000 00 217285346631 129271 00 283 75 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEBAL 30% 196177 39715 14483 51 217285348633 131269 247 284 79 -5 +1 -0 -1 +4 -0.2
202925 MLB MLEBAL 44% 260235 51926 19644 71 220288355643 135271 257 288 81 -6 +1 -1 -2 +6 -0.1
203026 MLB MLEBAL 51% 311280 621128 23765 82 221290359649 138271 247 291 83 -6 +1 -1 -2 +7 -0.2
203127 MLB MLEBAL 52% 334301 671229 25825 82 221290359649 137272 257 291 83 -7 +1 -1 -2 +7 -0.2
203228 MLB MLEBAL 53% 346312 691229 26855 82 221290356646 136272 258 290 82 -7 +1 -2 -2 +7 -0.3
203329 MLB MLEBAL 57% 342309 671228 25855 72 218287350637 132270 257 286 80 -8 +1 -2 -2 +7 -0.5
202824 MLB CTXBAL 30% 5954 11201 4151 20 221289356645 135273 257 289 79 -2 +0 -0 -0 +1 -0.0
202925 MLB CTXBAL 44% 115104 23413 8282 31 223292363655 140275 247 293 81 -3 +0 -0 -1 +2 -0.1
203026 MLB CTXBAL 51% 158144 32614 11392 41 225293368661 143276 257 295 83 -3 +0 -0 -1 +3 -0.1
203127 MLB CTXBAL 52% 175157 35615 13433 41 225294367661 142276 257 296 83 -4 +0 -0 -1 +4 -0.1
203228 MLB CTXBAL 53% 184165 38715 14453 41 225293365659 141276 248 295 82 -4 +0 -1 -1 +4 -0.1
203329 MLB CTXBAL 57% 195176 39715 14483 41 222290359649 137275 257 291 80 -5 +0 -1 -1 +4 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 886800 17832523 6421814 215 223292361653 139275 257 294 79 -19 +2 -3 -5 +19 -0.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 13123417 4716010 154 223292363655 140275 257 294 79 -14 +2 -2 -4 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 22942066 452781555 16555841 8717 219290351641 132271 247 285 79 -44 +5 -7 -12 +42 -1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 12822416 4715812 255 219290352643 133270 247 285 79 -15 +2 -2 -4 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 274 PAwOBA .340 → .270 (−70)K% 17.5% → 22.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.52%÷1.000×1.310——22.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.22%÷1.000×0.600—×0.9986.12%
HBP% /PA3.28%—×0.770—×0.9982.52%
Singles /BIP22.04%÷1.000×0.870×0.990×0.99818.95%
Doubles /BIP4.30%÷1.000×0.780×0.990×0.9983.32%
Triples /BIP2.15%÷1.000×0.850×0.990×0.9981.81%
Home runs /BIP3.76%÷1.000×0.880—×0.9983.31%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .340 → .270; ISO .158 → .135; BABIP .291 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 68 PAwOBA .302 → .254 (−49)K% 14.7% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.71%÷0.993×1.360——20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.29%÷1.007×0.690——7.05%
HBP% /PA2.94%—×0.780——2.29%
Singles /BIP25.53%÷0.998×0.920×0.954—22.45%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷0.898×0.830×0.954—5.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.904×0.910×0.954—0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.899×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .302 → .254; ISO .053 → .047; BABIP .319 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).