Caden Powell — OGILVIE

Caden PowellSS Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION308 act + 205 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .270 / .317

PA205

HR5

SB10

K%37

BB%8

BABIP313

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	89	15	2	1	1	2	46	2	6	1	169	204	247	451	79	326	49	2	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	87	21	4	1	2	4	34	2	6	1	241	290	379	670	138	365	36	4	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	366	331	59	10	2	8	26	158	7	32	6	178	253	293	546	115	305	43	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	366	309	72	15	2	10	48	110	7	32	6	233	349	392	740	159	325	30	13	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	308	279	64	8	0	8	27	117	0	21	5	229	297	344	641	115	359	38	9	285	76	-8	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.6
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	308	265	77	10	0	11	41	87	0	21	5	291	386	453	838	162	391	28	13	373	144	+15	+2	+0	+3	+9	3.0
ROS	22	A+	HOU	0%	205	186	38	6	0	5	16	77	1	10	2	204	270	317	587	113	311	37	8	265	61	-9	+1	-2	+2	+6	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						314	0	0	263	60	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	HOU	—	309	280	64	8	0	8	27	117	0	21	5	229	296	343	639	114	357	38	9	285	76	-8	+2	-0	+3	+9	0.6
TOT	22	A+	HOU	—	513	465	102	14	0	13	43	194	1	31	7	219	287	333	620	114	341	38	8	277	70	-17	+3	-2	+6	+15	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	25%	452	410	86	13	1	12	36	165	3	15	3	210	278	334	613	124	312	37	8	275	69	-16	+2	-5	+5	+13	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	HOU	36%	493	446	95	14	1	14	40	173	4	14	3	213	284	343	627	130	311	35	8	284	76	-14	+2	-5	+5	+14	0.2
2029	25	MLB	HOU	43%	514	463	101	15	1	16	42	177	4	13	3	218	289	359	647	140	311	34	8	290	80	-12	+1	-5	+6	+15	0.5
2030	26	MLB	HOU	47%	523	471	103	16	1	16	43	178	4	12	3	219	290	359	648	140	310	34	8	293	82	-11	+1	-5	+6	+15	0.6
2031	27	MLB	HOU	48%	525	472	103	16	1	16	44	179	4	12	3	218	290	358	648	140	310	34	8	293	82	-11	+1	-5	+6	+15	0.6
2032	28	MLB	HOU	48%	521	468	101	15	1	16	44	179	4	11	2	216	289	355	643	139	310	34	8	292	81	-11	+1	-6	+6	+15	0.5
2033	29	MLB	HOU	52%	511	459	100	15	1	16	43	176	4	10	2	218	291	359	650	142	309	34	8	290	80	-11	+1	-7	+5	+14	0.3
2027	23	MLB	HOU	25%	114	103	21	3	0	3	9	42	1	4	1	204	274	320	595	117	315	37	8	273	67	-4	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	HOU	36%	179	162	34	5	0	5	14	63	1	5	1	210	277	333	610	123	314	35	8	282	74	-5	+1	-2	+2	+5	0.0
2029	25	MLB	HOU	43%	220	198	45	7	1	7	18	76	2	6	1	227	298	379	677	152	314	35	8	288	78	-5	+1	-2	+2	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB	HOU	47%	244	220	49	7	1	8	20	83	2	6	1	223	293	373	666	150	313	34	8	290	80	-5	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2031	27	MLB	HOU	48%	250	225	51	8	1	8	21	85	2	6	1	227	298	378	676	151	313	34	8	290	80	-6	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2032	28	MLB	HOU	48%	251	226	51	8	1	8	21	86	2	5	1	226	297	376	673	150	313	34	8	289	80	-6	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB	HOU	52%	266	239	53	8	1	8	23	92	2	5	1	222	295	364	659	142	312	35	9	288	78	-6	+1	-4	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1525	1374	304	46	5	47	126	527	12	37	7	221	292	365	657	143	318	35	8	287	78	-38	+5	-17	+16	+43	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	130	20	2	20	54	225	5	16	3	222	293	365	659	143	320	35	8	287	78	-16	+2	-7	+7	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	4204	3795	801	122	10	120	336	1508	37	135	28	211	282	343	625	132	311	36	8	281	73	-128	+16	-41	+45	+119	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	125	19	2	19	52	233	6	21	4	213	284	349	633	136	313	36	8	281	73	-20	+3	-6	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	87	21	4	1	2	4	34	2	6	1	241	290	379	670	138	365	36	4	296	85	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	346	297	71	15	2	10	43	103	5	32	6	239	345	404	749	165	330	30	12	338	116	+6	+4	—	—	+10	2.1
2025	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	20	12	1	0	0	0	5	7	2	0	0	83	421	83	504		167	35	25	293	83	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	5	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
	/162	664	24	5	248	301	431	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,525	46	36	218	286	358	+16	-5	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	20	16	218	286	358	+7.1	-2.2	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caden Powell (OGILVIE)	22	20→32	50→52	55→50	30	219/287/333	114	341	13	31	38%	8%	70	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	44→50	51→45	35	182/259/292	110	306	12	11	42%	6%	53	-1.5	199/263/309	110	291	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	187/246/280	93	268	12	5	34%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	35	193/236/341	148	280	19	14	38%	5%	54	-1.4	209/272/403	194	297	25	14	37%	7%	86	+0.8	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→38	43→50	55	35	192/249/294	102	300	11	14	38%	5%	47	-1.9	197/249/320	123	286	14	19	35%	5%	54	-1.4	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Travis Demeritte 2017 · A	22	38→44	46→60	53→50	37	180/251/315	136	320	14	11	45%	8%	54	-1.4	196/259/355	159	295	18	7	38%	7%	68	-0.5	205/271/397	192	291	25	7	37%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Rece Hinds 2023 · AA	22	37→41	49→60	50→55	33	187/244/331	144	313	17	14	44%	6%	55	-1.4	200/249/369	169	324	21	19	43%	5%	67	-0.5	203/259/391	188	291	25	20	38%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	39	42→45	50→55	42	167/279/271	104	330	9	19	46%	10%	57	-1.2	187/286/292	105	341	10	16	43%	10%	64	-0.8	174/275/291	117	297	14	17	42%	9%	57	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Michael Crouse 2013 · A	22	35→37	46→50	52→55	36	176/243/300	124	293	14	19	43%	7%	46	-2.0	194/256/309	115	309	10	18	38%	7%	54	-1.4	191/257/319	128	297	12	19	38%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Sammy Infante 2023 · A	22	33→25	45	48→55	34	167/234/287	119	291	13	10	45%	7%	40	-2.4	188/252/281	93	310	8	16	39%	6%	45	-2.1	179/245/253	75	293	6	20	38%	6%	32	-1.3
✕Brian McFall 2006 · A	22	38→44	46→55	51→50	36	193/259/315	122	286	14	12	36%	5%	58	-1.2	203/261/356	153	281	19	9	34%	5%	69	-0.4	209/271/363	155	281	18	8	32%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Blaze Alexander 2022 · A	23	35→45	42→45	52→50	37	173/243/272	99	290	11	14	42%	7%	40	-2.4	212/283/342	130	324	14	10	37%	7%	75	-0.0	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	45	52→65	39	191/248/311	120	257	14	21	31%	6%	51	-1.7	219/287/347	128	293	11	39	27%	8%	77	+0.1	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Sam Huff 2020 · A	22	36→42	46→55	44→45	29	187/229/314	127	304	15	6	43%	4%	43	-2.2	211/259/374	163	330	22	4	41%	5%	73	-0.1	215/278/394	178	310	27	1	38%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Monte Harrison 2018 · A	22	41→44	45→50	53→60	34	200/258/319	119	317	13	15	39%	5%	58	-1.2	211/264/341	130	352	14	24	42%	5%	66	-0.6	206/263/349	143	355	18	31	44%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	47→50	44→40	39	181/246/309	128	264	15	5	36%	7%	50	-1.7	207/262/323	116	285	12	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	206/261/314	108	276	12	2	29%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→41	43→55	49→50	38	195/247/302	108	280	10	13	33%	6%	48	-1.9	197/253/324	127	295	12	10	36%	6%	56	-1.3	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	35→31	43→50	47→50	33	181/224/287	106	270	10	13	36%	4%	34	-2.8	185/234/295	110	296	11	12	39%	5%	40	-2.4	179/230/328	148	260	18	12	38%	5%	47	-1.3