Caden Powell — OGILVIE

Caden PowellSS Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION474 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP309

ISO118

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	87	21	4	1	2	4	34	2	6	1	241	290	379	670	138	365	36	4	296	87	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	346	297	71	15	2	10	43	103	5	32	6	239	345	404	749	165	330	30	12	338	115	+6	+4	—	—	+7	1.8
2025	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	20	12	1	0	0	0	5	7	2	0	0	83	421	83	504		167	35	25	293	85	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	89	15	2	1	1	2	47	2	6	1	169	204	247	451	79	329	50	2	206	26	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	346	315	56	10	1	8	25	147	5	32	6	178	249	292	541	114	297	42	7	242	50	-21	+4	—	—	+7	-0.9
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	20	14	1	0	0	0	2	10	2	0	0	71	263	71	335		146	50	10	202	23	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	89	15	2	1	1	2	47	2	6	1	169	204	247	451	79	333	50	2	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	87	21	4	1	2	4	34	2	6	1	241	290	379	670	138	365	36	4	296	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	329	57	10	1	8	28	157	7	32	6	173	253	283	535	109	295	43	8	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	366	309	72	15	2	10	48	110	7	32	6	233	349	392	740	159	325	30	13	335	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	90	15	2	1	1	2	47	2	6	1	167	204	244	449	78	329	50	2	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	328	57	10	1	8	28	157	7	32	6	174	253	284	536	110	289	43	8	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	94	90	15	2	1	1	2	47	2	6	1	167	204	244	449	78	329	50	2	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	328	57	10	1	8	28	157	7	32	6	174	253	284	536	110	289	43	8	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	474	432	96	14	0	14	37	175	2	30	9	222	287	352	638	130	333	37	8	279	75	-14	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	HOU	—	474	412	115	18	0	18	57	131	2	30	9	279	369	454	823	175	365	28	12	366	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	HOU	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		307	33	11	271	70	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	483	440	97	14	0	14	38	178	2	30	9	220	285	348	633	127	331	37	8	279	75	-14	+2	-0	+5	+10	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	25%	452	411	87	13	1	13	35	161	3	15	4	212	278	343	621	131	308	36	8	279	75	-14	+1	-5	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	36%	493	448	97	15	1	15	39	169	3	15	4	217	284	355	639	138	308	34	8	288	81	-11	+1	-5	+5	+11	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	43%	514	464	102	16	1	16	41	173	4	14	4	220	289	362	651	142	307	34	8	293	84	-10	+1	-5	+6	+11	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	47%	523	471	105	17	1	17	43	174	4	13	4	223	293	372	665	149	307	33	8	295	86	-9	+1	-5	+6	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	525	473	105	17	1	17	43	175	4	12	3	222	292	370	662	148	306	33	8	295	86	-9	+1	-5	+6	+11	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	521	469	103	16	1	17	43	175	4	11	3	220	291	367	657	147	306	34	8	294	85	-9	+1	-6	+6	+11	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	511	459	100	16	1	16	43	172	4	10	3	218	291	362	652	144	305	34	8	292	84	-10	+1	-7	+5	+11	0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	501	450	98	15	1	16	42	170	4	9	3	218	290	362	653	144	304	34	8	290	82	-11	+1	-7	+5	+11	-0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	487	440	95	15	1	15	41	167	3	8	2	216	287	357	644	141	302	34	8	286	80	-12	+1	-8	+5	+11	-0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	469	424	90	14	1	14	39	163	3	7	2	212	283	349	632	137	299	35	8	281	76	-13	+1	-8	+5	+10	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	25%	114	103	21	3	0	3	9	41	1	4	1	204	274	320	595	117	310	36	8	274	75	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	36%	179	162	35	6	0	5	14	62	1	5	1	216	282	346	628	130	310	35	8	282	81	-4	+1	-2	+2	+4	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	43%	220	198	43	7	0	7	18	74	2	6	2	217	289	359	648	141	309	34	8	287	84	-4	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	47%	244	220	50	8	1	8	20	81	2	6	2	227	298	382	679	155	309	33	8	289	86	-4	+0	-3	+3	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	250	225	50	8	1	8	21	83	2	6	2	222	294	373	668	151	308	33	8	289	86	-4	+0	-3	+3	+5	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	251	226	49	8	0	8	21	84	2	5	1	217	289	358	648	142	308	33	8	288	85	-4	+1	-3	+3	+5	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	243	219	48	8	0	8	20	82	2	5	1	219	290	365	656	146	307	34	8	287	84	-5	+1	-3	+3	+5	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	258	232	50	8	0	8	22	88	2	5	1	216	289	353	643	138	306	34	9	284	82	-5	+1	-4	+3	+6	-0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	265	239	51	8	0	8	22	91	2	4	1	213	285	347	632	134	304	34	8	281	80	-6	+0	-4	+3	+6	-0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	267	241	51	8	0	8	22	93	2	4	1	212	283	344	627	133	301	35	8	276	76	-8	+0	-5	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2291	2065	448	72	2	71	189	779	18	50	13	217	288	357	645	140	308	34	8	284	79	-48	+5	-29	+25	+50	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	127	20	1	20	54	221	5	14	4	217	289	357	645	140	307	34	8	284	79	-14	+1	-8	+7	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5465	4935	1055	166	12	165	440	1906	45	152	39	214	284	353	637	139	308	35	8	285	79	-107	+10	-63	+54	+108	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	126	20	1	20	52	227	5	18	5	215	284	354	638	140	309	35	8	285	79	-14	+1	-8	+7	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.5	2,292	72	50	218	285	361	+25	-8	4.2	3.9
/162	664	21	15	+7.1	-2.4	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caden Powell (OGILVIE)	22	20→32	50→52	55→50	30	204/270/327	122	307	9	16	37%	8%	70	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	36	193/240/341	148	278	18	14	37%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/387	180	291	23	14	36%	7%	83	+0.1	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→45	51→45	35	181/259/287	106	307	11	11	42%	7%	57	-1.8	200/265/308	108	290	13	7	34%	6%	63	-1.4	190/248/282	93	268	12	5	33%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	36	49→50	54→50	37	192/251/336	144	277	17	14	36%	6%	64	-1.3	200/259/334	134	299	16	13	36%	7%	67	-1.1	181/245/299	117	275	13	12	37%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→40	44→50	55	35	194/253/305	111	300	12	14	38%	6%	57	-1.8	201/254/323	122	287	13	19	34%	5%	61	-1.5	203/254/335	133	288	14	24	34%	5%	62	-0.9
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Sam Huff 2020 · A	22	37→40	48→55	44→45	30	191/233/328	136	303	17	6	42%	4%	55	-1.9	212/260/373	161	331	22	4	41%	5%	76	-0.4	214/277/388	174	309	26	1	38%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Sammy Infante 2023 · A	22	33→25	46→50	48→55	34	170/235/295	125	285	15	10	44%	6%	49	-2.4	189/255/283	94	308	8	16	39%	6%	53	-2.1	180/249/253	73	294	5	20	38%	6%	42	-1.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	46→50	44→40	39	181/247/307	126	264	15	5	36%	7%	56	-1.9	209/267/324	115	285	12	4	30%	7%	67	-1.1	208/268/318	109	276	12	2	28%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Rece Hinds 2023 · AA	22	37→42	48→55	50→55	32	185/241/327	142	319	16	14	45%	6%	58	-1.7	201/251/362	161	322	19	19	41%	5%	70	-0.9	201/250/372	172	302	21	22	40%	5%	70	-0.7
✕Neyfy Castillo 2023 · A	22	38→31	48→45	49→55	34	182/251/314	131	330	17	16	47%	7%	59	-1.6	182/242/294	112	308	12	15	42%	6%	51	-2.3	166/226/270	104	277	11	16	42%	6%	37	-2.4
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→41	48→55	46→50	35	195/236/334	139	275	15	6	35%	5%	57	-1.8	212/267/368	156	279	19	8	31%	6%	78	-0.3	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Travis Demeritte 2017 · A	22	38→44	49→55	53→50	36	183/252/332	149	324	16	11	46%	8%	63	-1.3	196/259/344	148	291	16	7	36%	7%	69	-0.9	205/271/367	162	301	19	9	36%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Brian McFall 2006 · A	22	38→44	46→55	51→50	36	193/259/315	122	286	14	12	36%	5%	63	-1.4	202/261/354	152	279	18	9	33%	5%	72	-0.7	209/271/356	147	280	17	8	30%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	41→33	45→55	52→50	39	207/251/337	130	273	12	14	29%	5%	63	-1.3	187/234/345	158	264	20	4	37%	5%	60	-1.6	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/282/312	108	305	11	13	34%	8%	70	-0.8	201/283/352	151	301	18	17	37%	9%	80	-0.1	184/270/336	152	267	19	18	36%	9%	69	-0.5
✕Michael Crouse 2013 · A	22	36→39	45→50	52→55	37	180/248/303	123	297	13	19	42%	7%	55	-1.9	197/262/313	116	308	10	18	37%	7%	62	-1.4	195/263/321	126	297	12	19	36%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→34	44→50	47→50	32	186/229/299	113	278	11	13	37%	4%	47	-2.6	195/241/315	120	305	12	12	38%	5%	55	-2.0	189/239/340	151	271	18	12	36%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	39	42→45	50→55	42	168/279/271	104	330	9	19	46%	10%	62	-1.4	189/286/298	109	339	11	16	43%	10%	70	-0.9	181/286/299	118	297	14	20	39%	10%	68	-0.4
✕Monte Harrison 2018 · A	22	41→44	45→50	53→60	34	200/259/321	122	317	13	15	39%	5%	63	-1.3	210/266/334	124	348	14	24	41%	6%	69	-0.9	192/260/311	120	338	15	41	45%	7%	59	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps