Neyfy Castillo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A+ARI | 344 | .249/.326/.411 | 11 | 15 | 59 | — | .196/.259/.325 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAARI | 391 | .239/.319/.448 | 17 | 19 | 49 | — | .177/.249/.293 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+/AARI | 504 | .221/.302/.366 | 13 | 14 | 36 | — | .168/.230/.270 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 257 | 221 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 64 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 208 | 308 | 281 | 589 | 72 | 277 | 25 | 10 | 273 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 204 | 180 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 267 | 337 | 400 | 737 | 133 | 346 | 24 | 8 | 322 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 455 | 382 | 88 | 14 | 4 | 21 | 58 | 170 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 230 | 350 | 453 | 802 | 223 | 345 | 37 | 13 | 356 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 344 | 309 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 115 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 326 | 411 | 737 | 162 | 361 | 33 | 9 | 330 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 391 | 348 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 128 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 239 | 319 | 448 | 767 | 210 | 322 | 33 | 9 | 338 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 213 | 194 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 77 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 274 | 345 | 619 | 139 | 310 | 36 | 8 | 278 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 265 | 231 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 84 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 225 | 317 | 359 | 676 | 134 | 319 | 32 | 9 | 305 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 26 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 304 | 385 | 609 | 993 | 304 | 312 | 19 | 8 | 431 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 257 | 228 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 140 | 225 | 184 | 410 | 44 | 189 | 30 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 204 | 186 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 69 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 183 | 236 | 269 | 505 | 86 | 263 | 34 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 455 | 400 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 234 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 155 | 252 | 305 | 557 | 150 | 295 | 51 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 344 | 317 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 148 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 196 | 259 | 325 | 584 | 129 | 329 | 43 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 391 | 355 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 156 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 177 | 249 | 293 | 542 | 115 | 281 | 40 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 213 | 199 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 92 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 166 | 217 | 261 | 478 | 95 | 283 | 43 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 265 | 240 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 118 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 167 | 237 | 267 | 503 | 100 | 274 | 45 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 269 | 27 | 4 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 257 | 228 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 140 | 225 | 184 | 410 | 44 | 203 | 30 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 257 | 221 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 64 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 208 | 308 | 281 | 589 | 72 | 277 | 25 | 10 | 273 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 204 | 186 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 69 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 183 | 236 | 269 | 505 | 86 | 273 | 34 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 204 | 180 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 267 | 337 | 400 | 737 | 133 | 346 | 24 | 8 | 322 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 455 | 400 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 234 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 155 | 252 | 305 | 557 | 150 | 305 | 51 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 455 | 382 | 88 | 14 | 4 | 21 | 58 | 170 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 230 | 350 | 453 | 802 | 223 | 345 | 37 | 13 | 356 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 344 | 317 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 148 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 196 | 259 | 325 | 584 | 129 | 327 | 43 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | Hillsboro Hops | — | 344 | 309 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 115 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 326 | 411 | 737 | 162 | 361 | 33 | 9 | 330 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 391 | 355 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 156 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 177 | 249 | 293 | 542 | 115 | 285 | 40 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 391 | 348 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 128 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 239 | 319 | 448 | 767 | 210 | 322 | 33 | 9 | 338 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 463 | 78 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 217 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 168 | 230 | 270 | 500 | 102 | 286 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 504 | 448 | 99 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 166 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 221 | 302 | 366 | 668 | 145 | 315 | 33 | 9 | 300 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 257 | 230 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 139 | 225 | 183 | 408 | 43 | 189 | 30 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 204 | 189 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 69 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 180 | 236 | 265 | 501 | 85 | 263 | 34 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 455 | 400 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 234 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 155 | 252 | 305 | 557 | 150 | 295 | 51 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 344 | 314 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 148 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 197 | 259 | 328 | 587 | 131 | 329 | 43 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 391 | 354 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 156 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 178 | 249 | 294 | 543 | 116 | 281 | 40 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 462 | 78 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 217 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 169 | 230 | 271 | 501 | 102 | 278 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 462 | 78 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 217 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 169 | 230 | 271 | 501 | 102 | 278 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2155 | 1949 | 331 | 57 | 13 | 44 | 148 | 902 | 40 | 101 | 33 | 170 | 243 | 280 | 523 | 110 | 281 | 42 | 7 | 231 | 43 | -147 | +7 | +0 | +23 | +47 | -7.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 272 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 168 | 242 | 277 | 519 | 109 | 279 | 42 | 7 | 231 | 43 | -44 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 265 PAwOBA .299 → .220 (−79)K% 31.7% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.70% | ÷0.964 | ×1.350 | — | — | 44.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷1.086 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.64% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 21.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 3.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.875 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.87% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 110, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .299 → .220; ISO .134 → .101; BABIP .319 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 213 PAwOBA .272 → .212 (−60)K% 36.2% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.15% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .272 → .212; ISO .139 → .098; BABIP .310 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 26 PAwOBA .418 → .318 (−100)K% 19.2% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 7.98% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 93, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .418 → .318; ISO .304 → .213; BABIP .312 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 391 PAwOBA .330 → .241 (−89)K% 32.7% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.74% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.95% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.36% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×1.042 | 19.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×1.013 | ×1.042 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×1.013 | ×1.042 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.73% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .330 → .241; ISO .210 → .120; BABIP .322 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 344 PAwOBA .321 → .256 (−65)K% 33.4% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.43% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 43.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.29% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 25.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.67% | ÷0.848 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 5.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 101, K 109, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .321 → .256; ISO .162 → .131; BABIP .361 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 455 PAwOBA .349 → .246 (−102)K% 37.4% → 51.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.36% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.64% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.054 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.91% | ÷0.923 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 8.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 111, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .349 → .246; ISO .223 → .155; BABIP .345 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKACL D-backs · 204 PAwOBA .322 → .222 (−99)K% 23.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .222; ISO .133 → .088; BABIP .346 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 DSLDSL D-backs 1 · 257 PAwOBA .271 → .184 (−87)K% 24.9% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 15.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 3.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.61% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .271 → .184; ISO .072 → .041; BABIP .277 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).