Gavin Turley

OF Stockton Ports

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 196 lbs A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2409ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AOAK	125	.243/.341/.430	4	0	54	—	.179/.252/.312
2026	22	A+/AOAK	382	.233/.354/.415	15	4	54	—	.173/.267/.302
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBOAK	489	.200/.279/.338	13	8	75	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBOAK	94	.210/.289/.360	3	2	80	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBOAK	162	.214/.292/.369	5	3	83	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Arb-2$0.4M2034Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO78

Chase%73

BB%69

wOBA60

wRC+53

Whiff%25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJeremiah Jackson (age 23) · Troy Stokes Jr. (age 23) · Michael Toglia (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .277 / .335

PA210

HR6

K%33

BB%9

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Stockton Ports	—	125	107	26	8	0	4	14	34	2	0	0	243	341	430	771	187	310	27	11	340	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	30	27	3	1	0	0	2	12	1	1	1	111	200	148	348	37	200	40	7	174	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Stockton Ports	—	352	291	71	10	1	15	51	110	6	3	2	244	368	440	808	196	329	31	14	359	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	125	112	20	6	0	3	9	46	2	0	0	179	252	312	565	134	257	37	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	30	28	3	1	0	0	1	15	1	1	1	107	167	143	310	36	176	50	3	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	352	307	55	7	1	11	35	150	6	3	2	179	276	316	592	137	279	43	10	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	125	112	20	6	0	3	9	46	2	0	0	179	252	312	565	134	262	37	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	—	125	107	26	8	0	4	14	34	2	0	0	243	341	430	771	187	310	27	11	340	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	382	335	57	8	1	11	36	165	7	4	3	170	265	299	563	128	282	43	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	382	318	74	11	1	15	53	122	7	4	3	233	354	415	770	182	319	32	14	345	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	125	113	20	6	0	3	9	46	2	0	0	177	252	310	562	133	257	37	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	382	336	57	8	1	11	36	165	7	4	3	170	265	298	562	128	271	43	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	125	113	20	6	0	3	9	46	2	0	0	177	252	310	562	133	257	37	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	382	336	57	8	1	11	36	165	7	4	3	170	265	298	562	128	271	43	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	489	438	87	16	2	13	42	161	6	8	3	200	279	338	617	138	278	33	9	278	75	-15	+0	-1	-3	+11	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	30%	314	280	57	10	1	9	27	101	4	6	2	205	284	352	636	147	280	32	9	286	80	-8	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	44%	366	327	69	12	2	12	32	116	4	7	2	209	288	361	649	153	281	32	9	291	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	51%	397	355	75	13	2	13	34	124	5	8	3	211	290	368	658	156	281	31	9	294	85	-7	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	409	365	78	14	2	13	36	127	5	8	3	212	291	367	658	155	281	31	9	294	85	-7	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	412	368	78	14	2	13	36	127	5	7	3	212	290	365	655	153	281	31	9	293	85	-8	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	406	364	76	14	2	12	35	126	4	7	3	209	287	358	645	149	279	31	9	289	82	-9	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	56%	396	355	73	13	1	12	34	124	4	6	3	206	283	350	634	144	277	31	9	285	79	-10	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	30%	94	85	17	3	0	3	8	30	1	2	1	210	289	360	648	149	289	32	9	291	80	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	44%	162	145	31	6	1	5	14	51	2	3	1	214	292	369	662	155	290	31	9	296	83	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	51%	201	180	39	8	1	6	17	63	2	4	1	217	295	376	670	159	291	31	8	299	85	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	214	190	42	8	1	7	19	66	3	4	1	217	295	375	670	158	291	31	9	299	85	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	220	196	43	8	1	7	19	68	3	4	1	217	295	373	667	155	290	31	9	298	85	-4	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	213	191	41	8	1	6	18	66	2	4	1	215	292	366	658	151	289	31	8	294	82	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	56%	224	201	42	8	1	6	19	70	2	3	2	212	288	358	646	146	286	31	8	290	79	-6	-0	-1	-1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1328	1188	255	49	6	40	114	414	15	24	8	215	292	367	659	152	291	31	9	296	78	-27	+2	-2	-8	+29	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	125	24	3	20	56	203	7	12	4	215	291	370	662	155	291	31	9	296	78	-13	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3417	3048	621	111	14	104	297	1125	43	57	23	204	284	352	635	148	281	33	9	284	78	-62	+3	-4	-17	+63	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	119	21	3	20	56	214	8	11	4	205	284	355	639	150	283	33	9	284	78	-14	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AStockton Ports · 352 PAwOBA .354 → .259 (−95)K% 31.2% → 42.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	42.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.49%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	9.90%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.32%
Singles /BIP	24.86%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.966	×0.990	21.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.52%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.966	×0.990	4.38%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.966	×0.990	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	8.29%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	6.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .354 → .259; ISO .196 → .140; BABIP .329 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 30 PAwOBA .170 → .125 (−46)K% 40.0% → 50.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	50.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	4.72%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	2.63%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.998	12.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.998	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .170 → .125; ISO .037 → .025; BABIP .200 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 125 PAwOBA .337 → .248 (−89)K% 27.2% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.20%	÷1.011	×1.360	—	—	36.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.20%	÷1.029	×0.690	—	—	7.51%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.25%
Singles /BIP	19.18%	÷1.003	×0.920	×0.950	—	16.71%
Doubles /BIP	10.96%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.950	—	8.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.48%	÷1.113	×0.800	—	—	3.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .248; ISO .187 → .131; BABIP .310 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,538	47	27	209	284	359	-9	+0	0.2	0.4
/162	664	20	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Turley (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	198/277/335	137	278	6	4	33%	9%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	49→55	48→55	42	201/265/351	150	272	17	12	32%	7%	73	-0.6	221/268/376	155	290	20	15	30%	6%	80	-0.2	231/272/390	159	293	20	15	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Michael Toglia 2022 · AA	23	38→40	48→55	49→45	42	194/267/337	143	289	16	9	37%	8%	70	-0.8	202/275/366	164	281	21	7	34%	9%	80	-0.1	205/279/388	183	275	23	7	34%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	37→36	50→60	50	36	195/243/346	150	282	18	14	37%	6%	63	-1.4	213/276/401	188	298	24	14	35%	7%	89	+0.5	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/250/319	131	265	15	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	206/269/349	143	296	16	9	34%	6%	74	-0.6	201/265/348	147	289	17	7	35%	6%	70	-0.3
●Trayce Thompson 2014 · AAA	23	37→47	48→60	52→50	39	195/259/338	144	277	16	15	35%	7%	68	-1.0	216/274/366	150	286	15	14	29%	7%	79	-0.2	203/291/407	204	286	27	7	37%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Brandon Meredith 2013 · A	23	46→39	50	52→45	43	232/298/391	159	310	17	11	30%	7%	94	+0.9	211/289/360	149	277	17	7	29%	9%	84	+0.1	195/280/338	143	251	17	5	28%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Niko Hulsizer 2019 · A	22	43→30	47→60	51→50	42	207/297/346	139	317	15	12	36%	8%	84	+0.2	204/282/377	173	332	21	8	42%	8%	86	+0.3	194/269/385	191	316	25	12	44%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Nelson Velázquez 2022 · AA	23	43→39	49→60	53→50	33	213/257/360	147	326	18	13	39%	5%	72	-0.7	211/274/393	182	292	24	14	35%	7%	86	+0.3	203/275/390	187	263	25	12	32%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	38→46	48→55	47→50	39	193/255/339	145	296	15	9	38%	7%	65	-1.2	209/276/372	163	301	18	7	35%	8%	82	-0.0	211/277/384	173	306	21	9	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	41→36	49→50	53→50	39	208/269/355	147	289	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.5	208/272/340	132	295	14	10	33%	6%	73	-0.6	202/272/344	143	283	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→60	47→45	42	205/269/329	123	282	11	10	30%	7%	69	-0.9	200/273/347	147	275	17	7	32%	8%	75	-0.5	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Travis Taijeron 2013 · A	24	41	49→55	50→40	41	205/281/358	153	305	17	6	37%	8%	80	-0.1	208/285/373	165	306	18	3	36%	8%	86	+0.3	199/284/369	170	293	19	1	37%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→42	44→55	45→50	44	183/264/301	119	275	11	7	36%	9%	61	-1.5	207/286/371	164	296	18	9	34%	9%	86	+0.3	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→37	49→45	51→50	40	207/277/361	153	275	17	9	30%	6%	80	-0.2	209/284/321	112	285	10	10	29%	6%	74	-0.6	205/290/288	83	271	7	10	25%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	38	45→50	47→30	44	191/278/314	124	278	13	2	34%	9%	70	-0.8	195/271/326	131	277	15	3	33%	8%	70	-0.9	176/253/298	122	249	15	0	34%	7%	54	-0.9
✕Jose Ramos 2024 · AA	23	42→44	49→50	47→45	41	212/281/356	144	311	18	6	36%	8%	80	-0.1	202/268/336	134	315	17	7	39%	8%	70	-0.8	194/263/327	133	302	17	7	39%	8%	64	-1.0
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	202/261/310	108	272	11	10	29%	6%	61	-1.5	216/274/340	124	275	14	9	26%	6%	74	-0.6	207/266/326	119	257	14	7	25%	5%	64	-0.8

Gavin Turley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps