Niko Hulsizer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 435 | .266/.356/.512 | 23 | 18 | 97 | — | .217/.285/.418 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 562 | .210/.333/.397 | 20 | 9 | 59 | — | .162/.260/.287 |
| 2024 | 27 | INTLAdelaide Gian… | 125 | .300/.384/.582 | 8 | 2 | 170 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 202 | 160 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 52 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 281 | 428 | 531 | 959 | 250 | 360 | 26 | 15 | 422 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 137 | 119 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 252 | 331 | 471 | 801 | 218 | 329 | 32 | 9 | 343 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 256 | 209 | 56 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 75 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 268 | 398 | 574 | 972 | 306 | 339 | 29 | 14 | 419 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 151 | 137 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 270 | 329 | 562 | 891 | 292 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 196 | 173 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 78 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 328 | 451 | 779 | 208 | 386 | 40 | 10 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 180 | 153 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 70 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 248 | 361 | 569 | 930 | 320 | 357 | 39 | 14 | 402 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 33 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 143 | 308 | 42 | 15 | 290 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 301 | 262 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 102 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 279 | 367 | 557 | 924 | 279 | 385 | 34 | 11 | 400 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 101 | 89 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 258 | 340 | 438 | 778 | 180 | 297 | 21 | 11 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 473 | 392 | 83 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 70 | 156 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 212 | 341 | 403 | 744 | 191 | 296 | 33 | 15 | 334 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 89 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 292 | 367 | 659 | 165 | 317 | 39 | 10 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Adelaide Giants | — | 125 | 110 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 384 | 582 | 966 | 282 | 417 | 34 | 11 | 419 | 170 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 202 | 172 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 75 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 180 | 299 | 331 | 630 | 151 | 261 | 37 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 137 | 122 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 189 | 256 | 361 | 616 | 172 | 289 | 45 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 256 | 223 | 45 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 99 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 299 | 422 | 721 | 220 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 196 | 179 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 98 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 251 | 335 | 586 | 151 | 354 | 50 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 180 | 160 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 92 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 163 | 256 | 369 | 624 | 206 | 285 | 51 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 33 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 242 | 300 | 542 | 133 | 278 | 52 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 301 | 274 | 61 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 121 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 223 | 290 | 431 | 721 | 208 | 333 | 40 | 8 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 473 | 414 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 185 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 162 | 260 | 287 | 548 | 126 | 249 | 39 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 202 | 172 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 75 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 180 | 299 | 331 | 630 | 151 | 272 | 37 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | Ogden Raptors | — | 202 | 160 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 52 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 281 | 428 | 531 | 959 | 250 | 360 | 26 | 15 | 422 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 544 | 480 | 96 | 28 | 1 | 23 | 45 | 220 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 200 | 284 | 406 | 690 | 206 | 298 | 40 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 544 | 465 | 123 | 35 | 1 | 31 | 60 | 158 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 265 | 362 | 544 | 906 | 280 | 324 | 29 | 11 | 389 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 340 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 190 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 174 | 251 | 350 | 601 | 176 | 324 | 51 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 376 | 326 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 148 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 245 | 344 | 506 | 850 | 261 | 373 | 39 | 12 | 372 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 395 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 19 | 35 | 179 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 215 | 284 | 413 | 697 | 197 | 333 | 41 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 435 | 379 | 101 | 24 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 137 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 266 | 356 | 512 | 868 | 245 | 355 | 31 | 11 | 378 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 493 | 78 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 220 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 158 | 256 | 276 | 532 | 118 | 249 | 39 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 471 | 99 | 26 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 191 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 210 | 333 | 397 | 730 | 187 | 299 | 34 | 14 | 329 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | Adelaide Giants | — | 125 | 110 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 384 | 582 | 966 | 282 | 417 | 34 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL RAW | Adelaide Giants | — | 125 | 110 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 384 | 582 | 966 | 282 | 417 | 34 | 11 | 419 | 170 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 202 | 171 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 75 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 181 | 299 | 333 | 632 | 152 | 261 | 37 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 544 | 483 | 96 | 28 | 1 | 23 | 45 | 220 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 199 | 284 | 404 | 687 | 205 | 285 | 40 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 338 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 190 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 175 | 251 | 352 | 603 | 178 | 321 | 51 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 394 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 19 | 35 | 179 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 216 | 284 | 414 | 698 | 198 | 328 | 41 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 492 | 78 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 220 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 159 | 256 | 276 | 533 | 118 | 249 | 39 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2244 | 1990 | 382 | 95 | 4 | 83 | 200 | 926 | 38 | 60 | 18 | 192 | 278 | 369 | 647 | 177 | 300 | 41 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -99 | +5 | +0 | -13 | +49 | -6.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 111 | 28 | 1 | 24 | 58 | 268 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 193 | 279 | 370 | 648 | 177 | 302 | 41 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -29 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 473 PAwOBA .328 → .247 (−82)K% 33.0% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.98% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.59% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.22% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 16.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.32% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .328 → .247; ISO .191 → .129; BABIP .296 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 301 PAwOBA .390 → .312 (−78)K% 33.9% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.89% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.30% | ÷0.984 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.88% | ÷1.090 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 9.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.25% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 9.26% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 91, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .390 → .312; ISO .279 → .222; BABIP .385 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAADurham Bulls · 33 PAwOBA .283 → .208 (−75)K% 42.4% → 51.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.42% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 50.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.15% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 20.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .208; ISO .143 → .094; BABIP .308 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 196 PAwOBA .336 → .256 (−80)K% 39.8% → 50.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.80% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 50.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.21% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 23.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.046 | ×0.870 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 9.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.950 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.42% | ÷0.938 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 7.09% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .336 → .256; ISO .208 → .155; BABIP .386 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 180 PAwOBA .389 → .271 (−118)K% 38.9% → 51.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.89% | ÷1.027 | ×1.350 | — | — | 51.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.07% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 16.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.05% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 8.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.66% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 13.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .389 → .271; ISO .320 → .215; BABIP .357 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 256 PAwOBA .407 → .311 (−96)K% 29.3% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.30% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.28% | ÷1.031 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.16% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 14.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.69% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 10.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.19% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | — | 8.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .407 → .311; ISO .306 → .235; BABIP .339 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 137 PAwOBA .344 → .272 (−72)K% 32.1% → 44.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.12% | ÷1.033 | ×1.420 | — | — | 44.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷1.018 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.67% | ÷1.011 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 7.59% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .272; ISO .218 → .180; BABIP .329 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKOgden Raptors · 202 PAwOBA .413 → .277 (−136)K% 25.7% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 16.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 6.16% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .413 → .277; ISO .250 → .169; BABIP .360 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .