Jordan Beck
LF Colorado Rockies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAACOL | 189 | .319/.406/.558 | 8 | 6 | 115 | — | .271/.337/.435 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLBCOL | 184 | .188/.246/.276 | 3 | 7 | 40 | -1.4 | |
| 2025 | 24 | AAACOL | 37 | .143/.189/.286 | 1 | 2 | -4 | — | .139/.162/.278 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBCOL | 588 | .258/.317/.416 | 16 | 19 | 96 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAACOL | 114 | .269/.327/.558 | 7 | 4 | 84 | — | .226/.274/.443 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBCOL | 180 | .200/.263/.291 | 1 | 2 | 49 | -1.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBCOL | 238 | .233/.294/.390 | 7 | 10 | 80 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 27 | MLBCOL | 239 | .232/.293/.386 | 7 | 10 | 78 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 52 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 462 | 487 | 949 | 205 | 321 | 17 | 25 | 426 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 57 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 404 | 469 | 873 | 163 | 378 | 19 | 14 | 390 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 223 | 192 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 71 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 240 | 341 | 406 | 747 | 167 | 353 | 32 | 13 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 341 | 295 | 86 | 19 | 1 | 20 | 43 | 71 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 292 | 382 | 566 | 948 | 275 | 319 | 21 | 13 | 408 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 184 | 170 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 188 | 246 | 276 | 522 | 88 | 282 | 35 | 7 | 238 | 40 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +4 | -1.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 189 | 163 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 319 | 406 | 558 | 965 | 239 | 389 | 23 | 12 | 417 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 588 | 539 | 139 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 174 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 258 | 317 | 416 | 732 | 158 | 351 | 30 | 7 | 325 | 96 | -3 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +13 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 37 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 189 | 286 | 475 | 143 | 160 | 24 | 5 | 211 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 180 | 165 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 263 | 291 | 553 | 91 | 296 | 32 | 8 | 251 | 49 | -11 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +4 | -1.1 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 114 | 104 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 269 | 327 | 558 | 885 | 288 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 379 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 952 | 874 | 204 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 69 | 296 | 5 | 28 | 10 | 233 | 293 | 365 | 658 | 132 | 328 | 31 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -16 | +2 | -5 | -14 | +21 | -1.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 52 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 385 | 442 | 826 | 186 | 296 | 25 | 17 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 57 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 115 | 286 | 28 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 223 | 201 | 40 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 82 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 199 | 278 | 333 | 611 | 134 | 313 | 37 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 341 | 309 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 98 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 220 | 287 | 417 | 704 | 197 | 264 | 29 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 184 | 171 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 181 | 235 | 269 | 504 | 88 | 282 | 35 | 6 | 227 | 40 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +4 | -1.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 189 | 170 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 54 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 271 | 337 | 435 | 772 | 165 | 358 | 29 | 8 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 588 | 540 | 131 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 174 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 243 | 303 | 380 | 683 | 137 | 351 | 30 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -3 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +13 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 37 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 162 | 278 | 440 | 139 | 150 | 30 | 3 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 180 | 165 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 251 | 267 | 518 | 79 | 296 | 32 | 8 | 241 | 49 | -11 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +4 | -1.1 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 114 | 106 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 274 | 443 | 718 | 217 | 250 | 27 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 109 | 95 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 321 | 368 | 690 | 147 | 286 | 27 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 109 | 88 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 431 | 477 | 908 | 182 | 354 | 18 | 19 | 407 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 511 | 109 | 27 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 180 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 213 | 283 | 386 | 669 | 172 | 286 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 564 | 487 | 132 | 34 | 2 | 25 | 73 | 142 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 271 | 365 | 503 | 868 | 232 | 331 | 25 | 13 | 380 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 341 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 119 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 286 | 352 | 638 | 126 | 318 | 32 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 333 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 252 | 327 | 414 | 741 | 162 | 338 | 29 | 9 | 329 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 625 | 576 | 136 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 185 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 236 | 295 | 373 | 668 | 137 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 301 | 90 | -8 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 625 | 574 | 144 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 45 | 183 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 251 | 309 | 408 | 717 | 157 | 339 | 29 | 7 | 319 | 90 | -8 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 271 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 257 | 328 | 585 | 129 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -13 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -1.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 294 | 269 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 83 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 227 | 288 | 394 | 682 | 167 | 294 | 28 | 7 | 301 | 63 | -13 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 109 | 94 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 321 | 372 | 693 | 149 | 291 | 27 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 509 | 109 | 27 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 180 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 214 | 283 | 387 | 670 | 173 | 283 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 341 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 119 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 286 | 352 | 638 | 126 | 320 | 32 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 625 | 572 | 136 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 185 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 238 | 295 | 376 | 671 | 138 | 340 | 30 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 271 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 257 | 328 | 585 | 129 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 341 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 119 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 286 | 352 | 638 | 126 | 320 | 32 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 625 | 572 | 136 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 185 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 238 | 295 | 376 | 671 | 138 | 340 | 30 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 271 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 257 | 328 | 585 | 129 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | COL | 100% | 459 | 420 | 92 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 132 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 220 | 282 | 359 | 641 | 139 | 289 | 29 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -11 | +2 | +2 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | COL | 100% | 238 | 218 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 294 | 390 | 683 | 157 | 305 | 29 | 7 | 303 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 65% | 368 | 336 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 106 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 219 | 281 | 356 | 637 | 137 | 289 | 29 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -9 | +2 | +2 | -4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 65% | 239 | 219 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 69 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 232 | 293 | 386 | 679 | 155 | 304 | 29 | 7 | 301 | 78 | -6 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1191 | 1093 | 255 | 51 | 9 | 27 | 86 | 365 | 6 | 38 | 12 | 233 | 293 | 371 | 663 | 137 | 323 | 31 | 7 | 296 | 81 | -23 | +3 | -4 | -16 | +26 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 140 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 47 | 199 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 235 | 294 | 374 | 667 | 139 | 325 | 31 | 7 | 296 | 81 | -12 | +2 | -2 | -9 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2571 | 2348 | 518 | 109 | 14 | 66 | 199 | 775 | 10 | 85 | 23 | 221 | 284 | 363 | 648 | 143 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -32 | +5 | -2 | -20 | +34 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 132 | 28 | 4 | 17 | 50 | 196 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 222 | 286 | 369 | 655 | 146 | 299 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -13 | +2 | -1 | -8 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 114 PAwOBA .372 → .293 (−79)K% 22.8% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 15.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.49% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .372 → .293; ISO .288 → .214; BABIP .292 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 37 PAwOBA .205 → .163 (−42)K% 24.3% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷0.945 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 10.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.028 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 3.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .205 → .163; ISO .143 → .110; BABIP .160 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 189 PAwOBA .410 → .338 (−72)K% 23.3% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.28% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.17% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.05% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.050 | 25.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.24% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.050 | 8.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.050 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .410 → .338; ISO .239 → .177; BABIP .389 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Spokane Indians · 341 PAwOBA .401 → .306 (−95)K% 20.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.82% | ÷0.983 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷1.075 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.54% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 17.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.48% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 7.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .401 → .306; ISO .275 → .211; BABIP .319 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 223 PAwOBA .327 → .268 (−59)K% 31.8% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.84% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.66% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 18.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 10.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.13% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .327 → .268; ISO .167 → .137; BABIP .353 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Rockies · 57 PAwOBA .380 → .265 (−115)K% 19.3% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.30% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.04% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷1.035 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 18.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 9.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.20% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .265; ISO .163 → .118; BABIP .378 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 52 PAwOBA .416 → .341 (−75)K% 17.3% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.31% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 17.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.947 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 87, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .416 → .341; ISO .205 → .178; BABIP .321 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).