Michael Toglia
1B Louisville Bats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAACOL | 135 | .277/.363/.571 | 9 | 1 | 83 | — | .218/.281/.419 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBCOL | 458 | .218/.312/.456 | 25 | 10 | 99 | -0.8 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAACOL | 177 | .331/.403/.624 | 11 | 0 | 109 | — | .256/.307/.451 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBCOL | 337 | .190/.260/.353 | 11 | 3 | 60 | -2.9 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAACIN | 402 | .273/.375/.547 | 22 | 4 | 88 | — | .213/.288/.401 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBCIN | 28 | .115/.179/.192 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 28 | MLBCIN | 107 | .217/.289/.423 | 5 | 1 | 93 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 29 | MLBCIN | 194 | .214/.286/.416 | 9 | 1 | 90 | -0.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 169 | 143 | 31 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 406 | 739 | 189 | 295 | 30 | 14 | 331 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 330 | 282 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 91 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 337 | 465 | 802 | 230 | 275 | 28 | 13 | 351 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 105 | 91 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 350 | 407 | 756 | 143 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 120 | 111 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 275 | 378 | 653 | 162 | 338 | 37 | 8 | 290 | 71 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -7 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 75 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 413 | 758 | 1.171 | 424 | 405 | 29 | 12 | 494 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 420 | 363 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 23 | 51 | 127 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 332 | 466 | 797 | 231 | 286 | 30 | 12 | 349 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 152 | 141 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 224 | 284 | 507 | 121 | 218 | 33 | 7 | 231 | 36 | -12 | -0 | -1 | -11 | +3 | -2.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 367 | 308 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 82 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 256 | 371 | 474 | 845 | 218 | 296 | 22 | 14 | 372 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 118 | 99 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 242 | 353 | 505 | 858 | 263 | 328 | 32 | 14 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 458 | 399 | 87 | 14 | 3 | 25 | 54 | 147 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 218 | 312 | 456 | 768 | 238 | 270 | 32 | 12 | 336 | 99 | -0 | +2 | -8 | -11 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 135 | 119 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 277 | 363 | 571 | 934 | 294 | 320 | 26 | 11 | 404 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 337 | 306 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 132 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 260 | 353 | 613 | 163 | 285 | 39 | 8 | 273 | 60 | -16 | +1 | -11 | -9 | +7 | -2.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 177 | 157 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 331 | 403 | 624 | 1.028 | 293 | 406 | 26 | 11 | 441 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 28 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 179 | 192 | 371 | 77 | 214 | 43 | 7 | 174 | 4 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 402 | 344 | 94 | 26 | 1 | 22 | 56 | 103 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 273 | 375 | 547 | 922 | 273 | 326 | 26 | 14 | 399 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1095 | 983 | 195 | 44 | 6 | 42 | 103 | 385 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 198 | 276 | 384 | 660 | 185 | 273 | 35 | 9 | 293 | 84 | -20 | +2 | -20 | -45 | +24 | -6.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 169 | 151 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 185 | 268 | 338 | 606 | 152 | 265 | 36 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 330 | 296 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 127 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 179 | 255 | 331 | 586 | 152 | 250 | 38 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 120 | 111 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 267 | 351 | 618 | 144 | 338 | 37 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -7 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 75 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 265 | 333 | 574 | 907 | 309 | 340 | 36 | 9 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 420 | 378 | 73 | 10 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 154 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 193 | 267 | 368 | 635 | 175 | 256 | 37 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 152 | 141 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 224 | 284 | 507 | 121 | 218 | 33 | 7 | 222 | 36 | -12 | -0 | -1 | -11 | +3 | -2.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 367 | 324 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 104 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 294 | 358 | 652 | 151 | 261 | 28 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 458 | 402 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 22 | 52 | 147 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 297 | 413 | 710 | 209 | 270 | 32 | 11 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +2 | -8 | -11 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 135 | 124 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 281 | 419 | 701 | 202 | 272 | 32 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 337 | 308 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 132 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 179 | 245 | 328 | 573 | 149 | 285 | 39 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -16 | +1 | -11 | -9 | +7 | -2.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 177 | 164 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 256 | 307 | 451 | 758 | 195 | 351 | 33 | 7 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 28 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 179 | 192 | 371 | 77 | 214 | 43 | 7 | 174 | 4 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 402 | 362 | 77 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 123 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 287 | 401 | 688 | 188 | 273 | 31 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 604 | 540 | 96 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 227 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 178 | 256 | 326 | 582 | 148 | 258 | 38 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 604 | 516 | 121 | 22 | 4 | 25 | 77 | 168 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 234 | 338 | 438 | 776 | 203 | 291 | 28 | 13 | 342 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 615 | 557 | 112 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 225 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 201 | 272 | 381 | 652 | 180 | 282 | 37 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 615 | 540 | 131 | 28 | 3 | 32 | 69 | 193 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 243 | 331 | 483 | 814 | 241 | 310 | 31 | 11 | 355 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 637 | 569 | 109 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 58 | 189 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 192 | 272 | 330 | 603 | 139 | 248 | 30 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 637 | 548 | 126 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 79 | 170 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 230 | 332 | 431 | 763 | 201 | 282 | 27 | 12 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 593 | 526 | 108 | 17 | 4 | 28 | 62 | 190 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 205 | 292 | 413 | 704 | 207 | 257 | 32 | 10 | 310 | 96 | -3 | +1 | -8 | -11 | +13 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 593 | 518 | 120 | 18 | 5 | 34 | 69 | 182 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 232 | 324 | 483 | 806 | 251 | 282 | 31 | 12 | 352 | 96 | -3 | +1 | -8 | -11 | +13 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 472 | 98 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 190 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 208 | 268 | 375 | 643 | 167 | 302 | 37 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -14 | -0 | -11 | -9 | +11 | -2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 463 | 110 | 24 | 3 | 22 | 47 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 309 | 445 | 754 | 207 | 331 | 35 | 9 | 331 | 77 | -14 | -0 | -11 | -9 | +11 | -2.4 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 430 | 388 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 135 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 280 | 387 | 667 | 180 | 271 | 31 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 430 | 370 | 97 | 28 | 1 | 22 | 58 | 115 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 262 | 362 | 522 | 884 | 259 | 319 | 27 | 13 | 385 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 604 | 542 | 96 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 227 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 177 | 256 | 325 | 581 | 148 | 255 | 38 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 615 | 556 | 112 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 225 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 201 | 272 | 381 | 653 | 180 | 282 | 37 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 637 | 569 | 109 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 58 | 189 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 192 | 272 | 330 | 603 | 139 | 249 | 30 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 593 | 524 | 108 | 17 | 4 | 28 | 62 | 190 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 292 | 414 | 706 | 208 | 270 | 32 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 470 | 98 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 190 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 209 | 268 | 377 | 645 | 168 | 308 | 37 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 430 | 387 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 135 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 388 | 668 | 181 | 269 | 31 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 593 | 524 | 108 | 17 | 4 | 28 | 62 | 190 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 292 | 414 | 706 | 208 | 270 | 32 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 470 | 98 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 190 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 209 | 268 | 377 | 645 | 168 | 308 | 37 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 430 | 387 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 135 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 388 | 668 | 181 | 269 | 31 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 45% | 500 | 450 | 96 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 45 | 159 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 286 | 409 | 695 | 195 | 274 | 32 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | -2 | -9 | +11 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 45% | 107 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 289 | 423 | 712 | 206 | 275 | 32 | 9 | 313 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 48% | 406 | 366 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 36 | 130 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 402 | 685 | 191 | 272 | 32 | 9 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 48% | 194 | 175 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 286 | 416 | 701 | 202 | 273 | 32 | 9 | 308 | 90 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1289 | 1158 | 233 | 52 | 7 | 51 | 120 | 447 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 201 | 278 | 390 | 668 | 189 | 273 | 35 | 9 | 295 | 79 | -22 | +2 | -21 | -49 | +28 | -6.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 26 | 61 | 225 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 202 | 280 | 394 | 674 | 192 | 274 | 35 | 9 | 295 | 79 | -11 | +1 | -11 | -25 | +14 | -3.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4037 | 3632 | 727 | 154 | 18 | 147 | 360 | 1362 | 16 | 49 | 16 | 200 | 275 | 374 | 649 | 174 | 270 | 34 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -27 | +2 | -24 | -57 | +38 | -6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 118 | 25 | 3 | 24 | 58 | 219 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 202 | 277 | 378 | 655 | 176 | 272 | 34 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +1 | -9 | -21 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALouisville Bats · 402 PAwOBA .391 → .299 (−91)K% 25.6% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 16.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 8.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .391 → .299; ISO .273 → .199; BABIP .326 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 177 PAwOBA .430 → .330 (−99)K% 26.0% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.99% | ÷0.945 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.17% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.03% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 24.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.028 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.003 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.91% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .430 → .330; ISO .293 → .208; BABIP .406 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 135 PAwOBA .393 → .291 (−102)K% 25.9% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .393 → .291; ISO .294 → .195; BABIP .320 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 367 PAwOBA .364 → .288 (−76)K% 22.3% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.34% | ÷0.947 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.90% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.35% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 18.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.64% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.062 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .364 → .288; ISO .218 → .156; BABIP .296 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 420 PAwOBA .343 → .275 (−69)K% 30.2% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.24% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 19.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.75% | ÷0.992 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 7.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .343 → .275; ISO .231 → .179; BABIP .286 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 75 PAwOBA .480 → .360 (−120)K% 29.3% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.33% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 16.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 13.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 11.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .480 → .360; ISO .424 → .292; BABIP .405 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Spokane Indians · 330 PAwOBA .346 → .253 (−93)K% 27.6% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.58% | ÷0.967 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.37% | ÷0.966 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.24% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 4.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.90% | ÷1.211 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 6.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .346 → .253; ISO .230 → .152; BABIP .275 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAHartford Yard Goats · 169 PAwOBA .323 → .265 (−58)K% 30.2% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.18% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.02% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.30% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 14.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷1.010 | ×0.870 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 9.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.40% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 102, 3B 91, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .323 → .265; ISO .189 → .159; BABIP .295 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .