Michael Toglia — OGILVIE

Michael Toglia1B Louisville Bats

Age 27 S/L 6'5" / 226 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION317 act + 211 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 127119vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .282 / .410

PA211

HR9

K%33

BB%9

BABIP274

ISO200

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1016.3%

xwOBA

530.312

POWER60

Barrel%

8112.9

Avg EV

7891.0

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE50

Chase%

5331.1%

SPEED50

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 795 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

242

553

—

wRC+

112

◀◀L

wOBA

332

295

◀L

ISO

241

191

◀◀L

BABIP

275

277

—

28.9%

37.8%

◀◀L

BB%

9.1%

10.1%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	3 teams	—	604	543	94	20	3	16	50	236	4	11	3	173	248	309	557	136	262	39	8	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	3 teams	—	604	516	121	22	4	25	77	168	4	11	3	234	338	438	776	203	291	28	13	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	3 teams	—	615	558	105	21	2	26	51	235	2	8	3	188	259	373	631	185	262	38	8	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	3 teams	—	615	540	131	28	3	32	69	193	2	8	3	243	331	483	814	241	310	31	11	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	637	569	95	18	1	16	58	206	5	6	2	167	250	286	536	120	224	32	9	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	637	548	126	25	5	25	79	170	5	6	2	230	332	431	763	201	282	27	12	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	593	524	98	14	4	25	64	194	2	11	3	187	278	372	650	185	237	33	11	282	74	-18	+1	-8	-11	+17	-1.9
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	593	518	120	18	5	34	69	182	2	11	3	232	324	483	806	251	282	31	12	352	127	+18	+1	-8	-11	+17	1.8
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	514	470	86	18	2	16	40	199	1	3	2	183	249	332	580	149	271	39	8	255	53	-27	-0	-11	-9	+15	-3.4
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	514	463	110	24	3	22	47	178	1	3	2	238	309	445	754	207	331	35	9	331	112	+7	-0	-11	-9	+15	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	CIN	—	317	285	60	14	1	16	30	98	0	4	0	211	286	435	721	225	254	31	9	309	95	-2	+1	+0	-6	+9	0.2
YTD	27	AAA	CIN	—	317	271	70	18	1	19	44	82	0	4	0	258	362	542	904	284	297	26	14	391	157	+21	+1	+0	-6	+9	2.5
ROS	27	AAA	CIN	10%	211	190	40	9	1	9	19	69	0	3	0	210	282	410	692	200	272	33	9	310	95	-1	+1	-1	-4	+6	0.1
ROS	27	MLB	CIN	10%	21	19	4	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	211	286	421	707	211	275	33	10	313	97	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
FULL	27	AAA	CIN	—	338	304	64	15	1	17	32	105	0	4	0	211	286	434	720	224	255	31	9	309	95	-2	+1	-0	-6	+10	0.2
TOT	27	AAA	CIN	—	528	475	100	23	2	25	49	167	0	7	0	210	284	425	709	215	262	32	9	309	95	-3	+1	-1	-9	+15	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CIN	31%	592	531	112	25	3	26	55	194	1	6	1	211	286	416	702	205	273	33	9	310	95	-3	+1	-3	-11	+17	0.1
2028	29	MLB	CIN	40%	580	519	109	24	3	25	55	191	1	6	1	210	287	412	699	202	272	33	9	308	94	-4	+1	-4	-10	+16	-0.1
2029	30	MLB	CIN	45%	568	509	106	23	3	25	53	189	1	5	1	208	284	413	697	204	269	33	9	305	91	-6	+1	-4	-10	+16	-0.3
2027	28	MLB	CIN	31%	184	165	35	8	1	8	17	60	0	2	0	212	286	418	704	206	276	33	9	313	98	-1	+0	-1	-3	+5	0.1
2028	29	MLB	CIN	40%	230	206	44	10	1	10	22	76	0	2	0	214	289	417	707	204	275	33	10	311	96	-1	+0	-1	-4	+7	0.0
2029	30	MLB	CIN	45%	253	227	48	11	1	11	24	84	0	2	0	211	287	414	701	203	273	33	9	307	93	-2	+0	-2	-5	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1755	1574	323	72	9	72	166	600	3	21	3	205	282	400	682	194	276	34	9	302	89	-22	+3	-24	-50	+50	-4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	120	27	3	27	61	222	1	8	1	206	282	401	683	196	276	34	9	302	89	-8	+1	-9	-19	+18	-1.6
Career	—			—	4914	4413	845	172	22	184	445	1713	17	59	16	191	268	365	634	174	259	35	9	280	72	-155	+5	-31	-83	+139	-12.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	112	23	3	24	59	227	2	8	2	192	268	365	633	173	261	35	9	280	72	-21	+1	-4	-11	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	169	143	31	10	1	5	23	51	2	3	0	217	333	406	739	189	295	30	14	331	112	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	330	282	66	10	2	17	42	91	2	7	3	234	337	465	802	230	275	28	13	351	126	+10	+0	—	—	+9	2.0
2021	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	105	91	24	2	1	3	12	26	0	1	0	264	350	407	756	143	328	25	11	334	114	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	120	111	24	8	2	2	9	44	0	1	1	216	275	378	653	162	338	37	8	290	80	-3	-0	-0	-7	+3	-0.7
2022	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	75	66	22	7	0	7	9	22	0	0	1	333	413	758	1.171	424	405	29	12	494	236	+12	-0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	420	363	85	13	1	23	51	127	2	7	1	234	332	466	797	231	286	30	12	349	125	+12	+1	—	—	+12	2.5
2023	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	152	141	23	5	0	4	10	50	1	1	1	163	224	284	507	121	218	33	7	231	35	-11	-0	-1	-11	+4	-1.9
2023	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	367	308	79	15	2	16	53	82	3	3	1	256	371	474	845	218	296	22	14	372	143	+18	+0	—	—	+10	2.9
2023	24	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	118	99	24	5	3	5	16	38	1	2	0	242	353	505	858	263	328	32	14	369	140	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2024	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	458	399	87	14	3	25	54	147	1	10	1	218	312	456	768	238	270	32	12	336	115	+8	+2	-8	-11	+13	0.4
2024	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	135	119	33	4	2	9	15	35	1	1	2	277	363	571	934	294	320	26	11	404	168	+10	-1	—	—	+4	1.4
2025	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	337	306	58	15	1	11	28	132	1	3	0	190	260	353	613	163	285	39	8	273	67	-12	+1	-11	-9	+10	-2.3
2025	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	177	157	52	9	2	11	19	46	0	0	2	331	403	624	1.028	293	406	26	11	441	196	+19	-1	—	—	+5	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1067	957	192	42	6	42	101	373	3	15	3	201	279	389	667	188	274	35	9	296	85	-18	+2	-20	-38	+30	-4.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#2Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	7	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	37	3	219	314	462	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#3Logan Morrisonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,713 PA	9	3,713	137	23	239	325	427	-58	-79	1.7	2.6
	/162	664	24	4	239	325	427	-10.4	-14.1	0.3	pk7: 3
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,779	73	22	205	279	400	-32	-33	-0.5	-0.4
	/162	664	27	8	205	279	400	-11.9	-12.4	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Toglia (OGILVIE)	27	40	60	50	50	210/284/425	215	262	25	7	32%	9%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joe Borchard 2006 · MLB	27	41→46	54→55	43→45	41	223/277/393	170	279	24	6	30%	6%	85	+0.7	233/301/399	166	293	22	7	27%	8%	97	+1.5	232/310/394	162	287	21	6	26%	9%	94	+0.5
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/292/419	206	279	27	9	33%	8%	98	+1.6	208/310/397	189	306	24	7	37%	11%	101	+1.8	194/309/387	193	292	25	6	39%	12%	95	+0.9
●Mike Hessman 2005 · MLB	27	41→36	53→65	48→45	42	218/278/388	170	277	21	7	29%	7%	85	+0.7	184/254/370	186	239	27	6	35%	7%	71	-0.3	197/276/419	222	259	31	4	36%	8%	91	+1.0
✕AJ Reed 2019 · MLB	26	38→48	56→60	46→30	43	212/277/400	188	273	25	2	32%	8%	87	+0.8	199/261/351	152	290	19	5	37%	7%	68	-0.5	147/216/267	120	228	15	0	41%	7%	25	-1.8
✕J.J. Matijevic 2022 · AAA	26	41→42	55→60	51→50	40	214/276/403	189	310	24	9	38%	8%	88	+0.9	227/288/415	188	312	22	11	33%	7%	95	+1.4	223/286/412	189	301	22	12	32%	7%	91	+0.8
●Mike Wilson 2010 · AAA	27	38→48	54→60	54→50	41	203/282/375	173	283	22	9	36%	8%	84	+0.6	230/303/403	173	301	22	10	30%	8%	99	+1.7	233/307/410	177	297	22	9	28%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Brandon Allen 2013 · MLB	27	43→47	53→55	49→50	46	220/297/398	178	292	20	8	31%	9%	95	+1.4	219/279/373	154	279	18	6	27%	8%	81	+0.4	212/274/358	146	266	17	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Edwin Rios 2022 · MLB	28	38→47	59→60	46→30	41	210/283/415	205	278	28	5	35%	8%	95	+1.4	222/289/404	182	318	23	4	36%	7%	93	+1.3	218/288/401	183	314	23	1	36%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	39→40	56→55	45→40	41	217/270/408	192	260	25	5	28%	6%	86	+0.8	219/276/373	154	274	21	4	27%	7%	79	+0.3	209/272/336	127	265	18	1	28%	7%	65	-0.4
●Ryan Noda 2023 · AAA	27	39→49	56→55	50	45	209/300/396	187	293	25	13	36%	9%	97	+1.5	202/324/373	171	301	20	8	36%	13%	102	+1.8	184/326/349	164	280	20	6	37%	15%	93	+1.0
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	226/291/432	206	298	28	6	34%	7%	102	+1.8	210/282/396	186	316	25	12	39%	8%	89	+0.9	197/272/380	184	302	25	13	41%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	43	55→60	45→30	37	228/278/411	183	305	24	4	33%	5%	91	+1.1	189/265/326	137	333	16	7	44%	9%	63	-0.8	114/217/256	141	217	21	2	54%	11%	24	-1.3
✕Kyle Jensen 2014 · AAA	26	38→48	56→60	44→40	40	204/276/390	186	288	25	4	37%	8%	85	+0.7	202/256/367	165	281	21	3	35%	6%	70	-0.3	195/246/359	164	270	21	1	35%	5%	61	-0.9
✕Josh Lester 2022 · AAA	28	37→41	57→60	46→40	38	208/257/406	197	273	26	4	34%	6%	81	+0.4	209/257/391	182	259	24	5	29%	6%	76	+0.1	201/249/376	174	242	23	3	28%	5%	67	-0.5
●Matt Davidson 2018 · MLB	27	38→44	55→60	42→30	37	210/262/385	175	286	24	2	35%	6%	77	+0.1	218/287/408	190	296	26	2	34%	7%	94	+1.3	221/293/427	206	292	29	0	34%	7%	99	+1.3
✕Daniel Palka 2019 · MLB	27	42→44	56→55	43→50	39	225/274/408	183	298	25	5	33%	6%	88	+0.9	210/274/379	169	272	22	5	30%	8%	80	+0.4	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	55→60	47→45	41	219/279/402	183	282	23	4	31%	6%	89	+0.9	212/292/392	180	299	24	10	35%	9%	92	+1.2	185/286/359	175	256	26	11	37%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Kennys Vargas 2018 · MLB	27	44→53	54→55	47→30	49	230/305/407	177	290	23	2	29%	10%	101	+1.8	224/287/402	178	290	24	4	30%	8%	92	+1.2	208/270/386	178	262	26	0	31%	7%	79	+0.3
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	28	38→47	56→60	47→50	41	208/261/408	199	257	23	8	30%	6%	82	+0.5	229/274/409	180	263	21	8	22%	5%	88	+0.9	250/295/458	208	274	27	11	20%	6%	108	+1.3
●Patrick Wisdom 2019 · MLB	27	40→45	53→70	48→50	39	211/273/378	167	297	22	10	36%	7%	80	+0.4	211/277/411	200	291	29	10	37%	8%	91	+1.1	208/294/461	253	268	37	8	37%	10%	108	+1.6