Noah Schultz

P Chicago White Sox

Age 23 LHP 6'10" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.1 · 2030

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	23	23	88	2.24	1.75	32.1%	6.7%	—	K 25.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.52
2025	21	MIX2 levels	17	17	73	4.68	3.94	23.2%	13.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.53
2026	22	MIX2 levels	30	24	119	4.24	3.98	22.6%	9.0%	1.3	K 21.4% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	28	28	149	4.48	4.46	23.0%	9.3%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	24	MLBCWS	30	30	166	4.33	4.23	24.9%	8.8%	1.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBCWS	30	30	176	4.19	4.09	26.0%	8.5%	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$6M2030Arb-2$12M2031Arb-3$17M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

K%40

Whiff%19

xwOBA vs11

CompsT.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Drew Parrish (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.48

FIP4.46

K%23.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6065

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

FB+3.8 (48%)

CT (22%)

SI (26%)

CU (3%)

CH-1.0 (10%)

SL-2.5 (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.9	$12M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+1.7	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$48M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	27.0%	6.8%	20.2%	4.4%	1.33	4.07	—
2023	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	36.5%	5.8%	30.8%	2.9%	1.33	2.40	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	0.8%	2.24	1.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.2%	4.68	4.53	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.2%	4.68	4.53	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	23.2%	13.8%	9.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.94	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.10	+1.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.10	+1.1
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.24	3.98	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	14	74	324	67	31	11	74%	3.9	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.4%	5.57	4.47	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	28	28	149	629	145	59	20	100%	5.3	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.46	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	31	31	175	739	184	65	23	100%	5.6	24.9%	8.8%	16.2%	3.1%	4.30	4.20	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	32	32	185	781	203	66	24	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	3.1%	4.16	4.06	+1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	31	31	185	781	207	65	24	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.00	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	180	760	201	64	24	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	3.1%	4.06	4.04	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	180	760	200	65	25	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.6%	17.7%	3.2%	4.10	4.13	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	29	29	172	726	186	64	25	100%	5.9	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.21	4.29	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	162	682	170	62	25	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.6%	4.38	4.50	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	151	636	154	60	24	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.8%	3.8%	4.59	4.73	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	139	589	138	58	24	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.6%	4.1%	4.83	4.98	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	128	540	122	56	23	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	4.3%	5.09	5.26	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	30	30	166	701	175	61	22	100%	5.5	24.9%	8.8%	16.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.23	+1.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	30	30	176	743	193	63	23	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	3.2%	4.19	4.09	+1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	29	29	176	743	197	62	23	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.2%	4.10	4.03	+1.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	28	28	171	722	191	61	23	100%	6.1	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	3.2%	4.09	4.07	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	28	28	171	722	190	62	24	100%	6.1	26.3%	8.6%	17.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.16	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	27	27	163	688	177	61	24	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.32	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	154	650	162	59	24	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.7%	4.41	4.53	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	143	604	146	57	23	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.8%	3.9%	4.63	4.77	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	132	557	131	55	23	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.6%	4.1%	4.87	5.02	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	122	515	116	53	23	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	4.4%	5.13	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		284	279	1648	6968	1744	625	244	98%	5.8	25.0%	9.0%	16.1%	3.5%	4.43	4.04	+16.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	212	76	30	98%	5.8	25.0%	9.0%	16.1%	3.5%	4.43	4.04	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		80	74	307	1280	287	124	31	92%	3.8	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	2.4%	3.51	3.76	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	48	200	833	187	81	20	92%	3.8	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	2.4%	3.51	3.76	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	23.0%	9.3%	3.2%	—	4.08	25.8%	17.3%	545	-0.38	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	87
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	81
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	81
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	79
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	78
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	76
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	76
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	157	24.9%	9.0%	1.32	4.40
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Jack Scott ('16-'29, 13 WAR*)	9.1	165	22.5%*	7.7%*	1.37*	4.46*
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99