Brandon Barriera

Brandon Barriera P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%23.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	20	80	25	9	0	100%	2.9	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	0.0%	3.98	2.77	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	20	80	25	9	0	100%	2.9	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	0.0%	3.98	2.77	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	20	80	25	9	0	100%	2.9	31.2%	11.2%	20.0%	0.0%	3.98	1.97	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.63	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.63	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.85	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	4.91	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	4.91	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	15	13	39	183	40	29	2	87%	2.6	17.0%	18.0%	-1.1%	1.8%	4.89	4.94	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	15	13	39	183	40	29	2	87%	2.6	17.0%	18.0%	-1.1%	1.8%	4.89	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TOR	1	1	2	9	4	2	0	100%	2.3	44.4%	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.16	—
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	12	12	32	144	33	22	2	100%	2.7	22.9%	15.3%	7.6%	1.4%	4.22	3.86	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TOR	2	0	4	30	3	5	0	0%	2.1	10.0%	16.7%	-6.7%	0.0%	12.46	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	46	195	47	20	6	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	2.9%	4.42	4.35	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	48	201	49	20	6	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	48	203	51	19	6	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.17	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	48	203	51	19	6	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	47	200	50	19	6	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	23	97	23	10	3	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	2.9%	4.42	4.35	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	33	139	34	14	4	100%	5.5	24.6%	9.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	39	165	41	16	5	100%	5.6	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.17	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	42	177	44	17	5	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	46	17	5	100%	6.1	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	180	759	189	73	22	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.7%	15.2%	2.9%	4.25	3.83	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	81	24	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.7%	15.2%	2.9%	4.25	3.83	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		28	26	66	299	57	52	3	93%	2.4	19.0%	17.5%	1.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.32	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	79	200	906	172	159	10	93%	2.4	19.0%	17.5%	1.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.32	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Barriera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	23.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.25	24.6%	14.7%	142	-0.29	—	—	—
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	80
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Jackson Wolf L 2021 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	27.0%	13.6%	3.1%	.423	4.67	19.5%	9.8%	357	+0.44	4.07	614	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	73
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	72
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	72
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	71
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	71
Joe Miller L 2022 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	17.4%	13.9%	2.0%	.375	4.22	16.0%	7.7%	273	-0.26	3.76	355	70
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	70
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	69
Yereny Teus L 2023 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.2%	12.0%	0.8%	.284	3.42	24.1%	11.1%	142	-0.04	2.63	185	69
Robert Gasser L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP	3.81	18.9%	4.6%	3.1%	.286	3.68	22.8%	14.6%	312	-0.13	2.45	476	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	24.6%	9.9%	1.13	4.31
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41