Brandon Barriera
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 22
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%23.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 20 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 3.98 | 2.77 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 20 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 31.2% | 11.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 3.98 | 1.97 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 5 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 28.6% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 14.29 | 4.91 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 5 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 28.6% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 14.29 | 5.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 7 | 7 | 17 | 81 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 13.7% | 17.5% | -3.8% | 1.6% | 5.29 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 45 | 188 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 62 | 269 | 59 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 222 | 938 | 233 | 88 | 28 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.81 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 79 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 20 | 20 | 44 | 197 | 37 | 34 | 1 | 100% | 2.2 | 18.7% | 17.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 6.09 | 4.04 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 90 | 200 | 889 | 166 | 151 | 6 | 100% | 2.2 | 18.7% | 17.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 6.09 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Barriera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 24.6% | 15.0% | 142 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 75 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 4.0% | .423 | 4.71 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 357 | -0.01 | 3.99 | 572 | 74 |
| Wyatt Crowell L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.35 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 0.7% | .247 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 160 | +1.56 | 3.35 | 198 | 74 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 74 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 73 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 73 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 72 |
| Evan Lee L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 70 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 70 |
| Robert Gasser L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 18.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 312 | -0.47 | 2.45 | 431 | 70 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 69 |
| Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 69 |
| Luke Fox L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.14 | 21.8% | 19.2% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.07 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 118 | -1.07 | 2.79 | 148 | 69 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.29 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .375 | 4.40 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 273 | +0.11 | 3.65 | 328 | 68 |
| Bailey Horn L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 68 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 68 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 68 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 67 |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 67 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.18 | 2.93 | 431 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 47 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 1.14 | 4.26 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |