Cole Messina — OGILVIE

Cole MessinaC Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 247 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION228 act + 152 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .265 / .290

PA152

HR2

SB5

K%32

BB%7

BABIP281

ISO94

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$15M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	56	52	6	1	0	1	3	16	1	0	0	115	179	192	371	77	143	29	5	144	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	56	50	7	1	0	1	5	11	1	0	0	140	232	220	452	80	158	20	9	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	434	397	74	17	1	6	29	100	7	14	6	186	254	280	534	93	233	23	7	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	434	374	97	23	1	7	51	72	7	14	6	259	358	382	740	123	304	17	12	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	COL	—	228	205	38	11	0	3	17	83	5	11	1	185	264	283	547	98	292	36	7	249	49	-13	+2	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
YTD	23	AA	COL	—	228	197	44	13	0	4	25	64	5	11	1	223	326	350	676	127	308	28	11	310	95	-1	+2	+0	+4	+6	1.1
ROS	23	AA	COL	2%	152	138	27	7	0	2	11	48	2	5	1	196	265	290	555	94	279	32	7	255	53	-8	+1	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB	COL	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						301	33	0	260	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	COL	—	231	208	38	11	0	3	17	84	5	11	1	183	261	279	540	96	287	36	7	249	49	-13	+2	+0	+4	+7	-0.1
TOT	23	AA	COL	—	380	343	65	18	0	5	28	131	7	16	2	190	265	286	550	96	287	34	7	251	51	-21	+2	+0	+7	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	COL	23%	446	404	82	19	1	8	32	135	7	10	2	203	273	314	587	111	281	30	7	269	64	-18	+1	+1	+8	+13	0.4
2028	25	MLB	COL	35%	476	431	90	21	1	10	35	141	7	10	2	209	279	332	611	123	282	30	7	278	71	-16	+1	+1	+8	+13	0.8
2029	26	MLB	COL	42%	493	446	94	21	1	12	37	144	7	9	2	211	282	343	625	132	283	29	8	283	74	-14	+1	+1	+9	+14	1.0
2030	27	MLB	COL	45%	498	450	95	21	1	12	38	145	7	9	2	211	283	342	625	131	283	29	8	284	75	-14	+1	+1	+9	+14	1.1
2031	28	MLB	COL	47%	496	447	95	21	1	12	39	145	7	8	2	213	286	345	631	132	283	29	8	283	74	-14	+1	-0	+9	+14	0.9
2027	24	MLB	COL	23%	102	92	20	5	0	2	7	31	2	2	0	217	287	337	624	120	303	30	7	277	70	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	25	MLB	COL	35%	167	151	34	8	0	4	12	49	2	3	1	225	291	358	649	132	305	29	7	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2029	26	MLB	COL	42%	208	187	44	10	1	6	16	61	3	4	1	235	306	396	702	160	306	29	8	293	82	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.6
2030	27	MLB	COL	45%	223	201	47	11	1	6	17	65	3	4	1	234	303	388	691	154	306	29	8	294	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
2031	28	MLB	COL	47%	231	208	48	11	1	6	18	68	3	4	1	231	301	380	681	149	305	29	8	293	82	-5	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	934	842	193	45	3	24	70	275	13	17	4	229	298	375	674	146	308	29	7	290	80	-21	+2	+1	+17	+26	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	134	31	2	17	49	191	9	12	3	229	298	375	674	147	307	29	8	290	80	-15	+1	+1	+12	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	3051	2765	563	128	6	63	224	874	45	65	17	204	274	323	597	119	272	29	7	270	65	-122	+6	+2	+54	+86	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	119	27	1	13	48	186	10	14	4	202	274	317	591	115	270	29	7	270	65	-26	+1	+0	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	56	50	7	1	0	1	5	11	1	0	0	140	232	220	452	80	158	20	9	216	24	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	434	374	97	23	1	7	51	72	7	14	6	259	358	382	740	123	304	17	12	337	116	+8	+0	—	—	+12	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	937	21	18	212	280	341	+17	+4	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	15	13	212	280	341	+11.9	+2.8	1.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cole Messina (OGILVIE)	23	42	47	45	50	190/265/286	96	287	5	16	34%	7%	51	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	43→60	47→45	41	202/262/316	114	279	9	10	30%	6%	58	-1.2	196/266/342	146	271	17	7	33%	7%	68	-0.5	213/288/429	216	271	31	1	33%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	42→50	40→45	47→50	41	200/273/299	98	286	7	11	31%	6%	59	-1.1	217/287/310	93	290	7	13	26%	7%	68	-0.5	209/292/304	96	279	9	16	26%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	42	40→55	50→40	43	203/279/294	91	279	7	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	209/281/354	145	278	18	4	31%	7%	78	+0.2	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2019 · AA	23	41	39→55	42→50	44	198/257/281	83	259	7	8	25%	6%	47	-1.9	212/265/353	141	275	17	8	29%	6%	69	-0.4	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Alex De Goti 2018 · A	23	41→47	40→45	44→50	44	198/272/290	92	289	8	7	33%	8%	56	-1.3	225/277/344	119	285	12	7	24%	6%	72	-0.2	215/285/328	114	279	10	6	25%	8%	69	-0.4
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA	24	41	41→45	48→40	40	201/257/296	95	274	9	7	29%	6%	51	-1.7	214/263/302	88	270	7	5	23%	5%	55	-1.4	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Ruben Cardenas 2021 · A	23	43→42	40→55	46→50	41	208/257/305	97	279	7	8	28%	6%	53	-1.5	216/264/385	169	290	23	8	33%	6%	78	+0.2	208/270/383	175	256	23	10	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→36	42→50	49→45	42	208/284/314	106	306	8	7	33%	7%	68	-0.5	195/290/334	139	313	15	5	39%	10%	76	+0.1	179/286/335	156	287	19	4	41%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	42→50	45	38	210/257/311	101	291	10	11	31%	5%	54	-1.4	229/288/359	130	302	15	9	28%	6%	81	+0.4	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	44	42→50	42→40	42	213/280/315	102	304	10	4	32%	7%	66	-0.6	212/275/335	123	294	14	4	31%	7%	69	-0.4	225/284/360	135	285	17	2	26%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Larry Cobb 2008 · A	23	40→43	39→45	47→50	49	193/267/275	82	244	7	10	23%	8%	50	-1.7	210/273/324	114	268	12	11	25%	6%	65	-0.7	206/269/325	118	259	13	11	25%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Alika Williams 2022 · A	23	48→45	40→45	42→45	39	229/267/321	91	296	7	8	25%	4%	60	-1.0	218/275/319	101	283	9	7	25%	7%	64	-0.8	242/291/349	107	304	9	4	22%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Chase Austin 2011 · A	23	43→42	42→50	43→50	45	211/273/315	104	264	9	7	23%	7%	63	-0.9	219/270/346	127	262	14	9	22%	5%	70	-0.3	213/260/350	136	241	18	10	20%	4%	64	-0.5
✕Nick Fortes 2021 · A	24	40→44	41→45	46→45	46	198/261/293	96	247	8	5	23%	7%	53	-1.5	224/289/353	129	259	15	8	20%	6%	80	+0.4	221/287/348	127	250	16	8	19%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	208/266/303	94	290	7	5	30%	7%	56	-1.3	208/289/325	117	317	12	4	35%	9%	72	-0.2	195/284/314	119	296	12	2	35%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	39→46	44→45	48→45	45	198/261/314	116	258	13	6	28%	8%	57	-1.2	214/281/337	123	274	14	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Rowdey Jordan 2022 · A	23	43→42	39→45	43→55	43	202/267/285	82	298	6	8	32%	8%	52	-1.6	204/274/318	114	284	11	18	30%	8%	64	-0.8	199/268/331	132	272	16	23	31%	7%	62	-0.6