Cole Messina

C Hartford Yard Goats
Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 247 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1488ETA2030MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+COL56.140/.232/.22010-3—.115/.179/.192
202522A+COL434.259/.358/.38271464—.209/.284/.309
202623AACOL364.226/.327/.36982167—.205/.280/.318
2027PROJMLE24MLBCOL4.207/.280/.3220063-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBCOL56.212/.286/.33911690.1
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBCOL102.216/.289/.35022720.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%61
Whiff%58
Z-Con%57
Speed53
ISO47
Chase%45
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%
CompsAndrew Navigato (age 24) · Tony Thomas (age 24) · Luke Williams (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†63
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .322
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP290
ISO96
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-1$0.4M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 A+Spokane Indians — 5650 7101 5111 00 140232220452 80158 209 216 -3 — — — — — —
202522 A+Spokane Indians — 434374 972317 51727 146 259358382740 123304 1712 337 64 — — — — — —
202623 AAHartford Yard Goats — 364314 712108 42995 213 226327369696 143300 2712 315 67 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 5652 6101 3151 00 115179192371 77143 275 164 -3 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 434392 821916 34977 146 209284309593 99258 228 263 64 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 364327 671906 291215 213 205280318598 113294 338 267 67 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 5652 6101 3151 00 115179192371 77139 275 164 -3 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAWSpokane Indians — 5650 7101 5111 00 140232220452 80158 209 216 -3 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 434392 821916 34977 146 209284309593 99262 228 263 64 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAWSpokane Indians — 434374 972317 51727 146 259358382740 123304 1712 337 64 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 364327 671906 291215 213 205280318598 113300 338 267 67 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAWHartford Yard Goats — 364314 712108 42995 213 226327369696 143300 2712 315 67 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 5652 6101 3151 00 115179192371 77143 275 164 -3 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 434390 821916 34977 146 210284310594 100258 228 263 64 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 364327 671906 291215 213 205280318598 113294 338 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 5652 6101 3151 00 115179192371 77143 275 164 -3 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 434390 821916 34977 146 210284310594 100258 228 263 64 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 364327 671906 291215 213 205280318598 113294 338 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECOL 2% 380342 681616 301175 102 198272303575 105278 318 262 63 -17 +1 +1 +7 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCOL 2% 44 0000 010 00 207280322602 115290 250 273 63 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECOL 23% 242218 441005 19733 61 203277318595 115279 308 270 69 -9 +1 +1 +4 +5 0.2
202926 MLB MLECOL 35% 291261 551316 24874 61 206280327607 121280 308 275 72 -10 +1 +1 +5 +6 0.4
203027 MLB MLECOL 40% 311279 571316 25924 61 207281328610 122280 308 276 73 -10 +1 +1 +6 +7 0.4
203128 MLB MLECOL 44% 321288 611417 26954 51 207281328609 121280 308 275 73 -10 +1 +0 +6 +7 0.3
203229 MLB MLECOL 45% 317284 581316 26934 41 206280326606 119279 298 274 72 -11 +0 -0 +6 +7 0.2
203330 MLB MLECOL 45% 311280 561306 25933 41 203276318594 115277 308 269 69 -12 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.0
202825 MLB CTXCOL 23% 5651 10201 4171 10 212286339625 127291 307 282 69 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.1
202926 MLB CTXCOL 35% 10292 20502 8311 20 216289350639 134292 308 287 72 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
203027 MLB CTXCOL 40% 126114 25603 10371 21 217290351641 134292 298 288 73 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.1
203128 MLB CTXCOL 44% 141127 27603 11422 21 217290350640 133292 308 288 73 -5 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.1
203229 MLB CTXCOL 45% 141127 27603 11422 21 216289348637 131291 308 286 72 -5 +0 -0 +3 +3 0.1
203330 MLB CTXCOL 45% 140126 26603 11422 21 213285339624 126288 308 281 69 -5 +0 -0 +3 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 706637 13531015 552119 114 212284331615 119288 308 286 68 -24 +1 +1 +13 +15 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 12529014 511948 104 213285334620 121290 308 286 68 -22 +1 +1 +12 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 28572569 523124552 22883138 7116 204278316595 113277 298 268 68 -71 +4 +3 +36 +43 1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650584 11928112 521899 164 204279317596 113277 298 268 68 -23 +1 +1 +12 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 364 PAwOBA .308 → .267 (−41)K% 27.2% → 33.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.20%÷1.000×1.220——33.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.26%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.10%
HBP% /PA1.37%—×0.850—×1.0271.20%
Singles /BIP19.53%÷1.000×0.970×1.030×1.02720.05%
Doubles /BIP9.77%÷1.000×0.860×1.030×1.0278.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×1.030×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.72%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0272.98%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .308 → .267; ISO .143 → .119; BABIP .300 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 434 PAwOBA .328 → .263 (−65)K% 16.6% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.59%÷1.005×1.350——22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.29%÷1.030×0.710—×1.0127.88%
HBP% /PA1.61%—×0.810—×1.0121.32%
Singles /BIP21.85%÷1.068×0.910×0.994×1.01218.73%
Doubles /BIP7.62%÷1.002×0.830×0.994×1.0126.35%
Triples /BIP0.33%÷0.900×0.820×0.994×1.0120.30%
Home runs /BIP2.32%÷0.999×0.830—×1.0121.95%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .328 → .263; ISO .123 → .102; BABIP .304 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 56 PAwOBA .211 → .164 (−47)K% 19.6% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.64%÷0.996×1.350——26.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.93%÷1.106×0.710—×1.0275.89%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.810—×1.0271.49%
Singles /BIP12.82%÷0.999×0.910×0.999×1.02711.98%
Doubles /BIP2.56%÷1.098×0.830×0.999×1.0271.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.907×0.820×0.999×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷1.086×0.830—×1.0272.01%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .211 → .164; ISO .080 → .059; BABIP .158 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).