Cole Messina — OGILVIE

Cole MessinaC Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 247 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION364 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO101

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	56	50	7	1	0	1	5	11	1	0	0	140	232	220	452	80	158	20	9	216	33	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	434	374	97	23	1	7	51	72	7	14	6	259	358	382	740	123	304	17	12	337	114	+7	+0	—	—	+9	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	56	52	6	1	0	1	3	15	1	0	0	115	179	192	371	77	132	27	5	150	-12	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	434	396	77	17	1	6	30	100	7	14	6	194	263	288	551	93	241	23	7	244	51	-25	+0	—	—	+9	-1.6
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	56	52	6	1	0	1	3	15	1	0	0	115	179	192	371	77	139	27	5	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	56	50	7	1	0	1	5	11	1	0	0	140	232	220	452	80	158	20	9	216	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	434	396	77	17	1	6	30	100	7	14	6	194	263	288	551	93	244	23	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	434	374	97	23	1	7	51	72	7	14	6	259	358	382	740	123	304	17	12	337	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	56	52	6	1	0	1	3	15	1	0	0	115	179	192	371	77	132	27	5	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	434	394	77	17	1	6	30	100	7	14	6	195	263	289	553	94	241	23	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	56	52	6	1	0	1	3	15	1	0	0	115	179	192	371	77	132	27	5	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	434	394	77	17	1	6	30	100	7	14	6	195	263	289	553	94	241	23	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	COL	—	364	328	64	18	0	6	28	121	5	21	3	195	269	305	574	110	284	33	8	258	61	-17	+3	+0	+7	+8	0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	COL	—	364	314	71	21	0	8	42	99	5	21	3	226	327	369	696	143	300	27	12	315	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	COL	2%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		278	30	10	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	COL	—	374	337	65	18	0	6	29	124	5	21	3	193	267	300	567	107	281	33	8	258	61	-17	+3	+0	+7	+8	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	23%	446	404	83	20	1	9	34	132	5	12	2	205	275	327	602	121	281	30	8	274	71	-15	+2	+1	+8	+10	0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	35%	476	430	92	22	1	11	37	138	6	12	2	214	285	347	632	133	282	29	8	282	77	-13	+2	+1	+8	+10	0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	42%	493	445	95	22	1	12	39	141	6	11	2	213	286	348	634	135	283	29	8	286	80	-12	+1	+1	+9	+11	1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	45%	498	449	96	22	1	12	40	142	6	10	2	214	287	347	634	134	283	29	8	287	80	-12	+1	+1	+9	+11	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	47%	496	446	95	22	1	12	41	142	6	9	2	213	288	348	636	135	282	29	8	286	80	-12	+1	-0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	46%	489	440	93	22	1	11	40	141	6	8	2	211	286	341	627	130	281	29	8	284	78	-13	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	46%	479	430	91	21	1	11	40	139	6	7	1	212	288	342	630	130	280	29	8	281	77	-13	+1	-2	+9	+10	0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	46%	452	407	85	20	1	10	37	133	5	6	1	209	283	337	619	128	277	29	8	277	74	-14	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	COL	46%	421	378	77	18	0	9	35	125	5	6	1	204	280	323	603	119	274	30	8	272	70	-15	+1	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	23%	102	92	20	5	0	2	8	30	1	3	1	217	287	337	624	120	297	29	8	280	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	35%	167	150	33	8	0	4	13	48	2	4	1	220	291	353	644	133	298	29	8	289	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	42%	208	187	43	10	1	6	17	59	2	5	1	230	301	390	691	160	299	28	8	293	80	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	45%	223	200	46	11	1	6	18	64	3	5	1	230	303	385	688	155	299	29	8	294	80	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	47%	231	207	47	11	1	6	19	66	3	4	1	227	301	377	678	150	298	29	8	293	80	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	46%	227	203	45	11	0	6	19	65	3	4	1	222	298	365	662	143	297	29	8	291	78	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	46%	222	199	45	11	0	6	18	65	3	3	1	226	300	372	672	146	295	29	8	288	77	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	46%	209	188	41	10	0	5	17	61	2	3	1	218	290	351	641	133	293	29	8	284	74	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	COL	46%	195	175	38	9	0	5	16	58	2	3	0	217	290	354	644	137	289	30	8	278	70	-7	+1	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1784	1601	358	86	3	46	145	516	21	34	8	224	297	367	664	144	298	29	8	289	73	-49	+4	-3	+32	+39	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	130	31	1	17	53	188	8	12	3	223	297	367	664	144	297	29	8	289	73	-18	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4750	4286	891	207	9	104	377	1351	59	95	21	208	281	333	614	125	276	28	8	276	73	-119	+10	-6	+76	+92	5.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	121	28	1	14	52	185	8	13	3	206	280	329	609	123	274	28	8	276	73	-18	+2	-1	+12	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.7	1,790	41	33	212	282	342	+32	+8	3.5	3.3
/162	664	15	12	+11.9	+3.0	1.3	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cole Messina (OGILVIE)	23	42	47	45	52	197/266/300	104	278	5	13	31%	7%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	204/268/326	123	280	11	10	30%	7%	68	-1.0	194/266/335	141	268	16	7	32%	8%	70	-0.9	216/279/422	206	274	28	2	32%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41→40	44→55	46→50	44	203/280/318	115	282	11	13	30%	8%	71	-0.8	217/276/370	153	271	17	14	26%	6%	81	-0.1	214/273/383	169	262	19	17	26%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	41→48	41→45	47→50	42	198/274/300	102	281	8	11	31%	7%	65	-1.2	216/287/309	93	288	7	13	26%	7%	71	-0.8	203/287/297	95	268	8	17	26%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	43→45	43→50	42→40	42	211/278/315	104	301	11	4	32%	7%	69	-0.9	213/277/334	121	292	13	4	30%	7%	73	-0.6	227/286/364	137	285	17	2	26%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/349	122	287	12	8	25%	6%	76	-0.4	217/284/360	143	275	18	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	214/284/354	140	266	19	2	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	41→45	45→50	39	209/255/305	96	283	9	11	29%	5%	57	-1.8	226/286/347	121	297	13	9	27%	6%	79	-0.2	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	43	40→50	50→40	42	206/280/300	94	283	7	6	28%	6%	67	-1.1	205/276/339	134	277	16	4	31%	6%	74	-0.5	180/260/332	152	234	22	0	33%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Jack Mayfield 2014 · A	23	43→46	42→55	45→50	42	213/271/318	106	275	10	7	26%	6%	67	-1.1	218/267/332	114	274	11	5	24%	6%	68	-1.0	221/268/397	176	255	22	7	23%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	201/259/308	107	270	11	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	217/276/340	123	279	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	208/269/326	118	262	13	7	25%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Dustin Garneau 2011 · A	23	45→39	41→50	47→45	44	218/280/324	106	288	8	6	26%	7%	72	-0.7	198/268/331	133	235	13	5	21%	8%	70	-0.9	171/262/344	173	215	21	1	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2017 · A	24	43→37	42→50	50	38	209/268/316	107	294	9	13	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/281/360	149	299	17	9	34%	7%	81	-0.1	199/275/365	165	277	21	7	34%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	44	40	46→40	46	211/286/303	92	280	7	5	26%	8%	70	-0.9	200/259/270	70	271	4	4	26%	6%	51	-2.2	245/303/334	88	297	6	3	18%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	208/299/335	127	266	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	198/288/331	133	281	13	8	31%	10%	77	-0.3	175/276/313	138	241	16	6	32%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Robbie Glendinning 2019 · A	23	48→44	41→50	43→45	42	230/282/327	97	323	8	7	30%	7%	72	-0.7	232/287/365	133	365	14	9	37%	7%	83	+0.1	215/293/355	140	345	16	7	39%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	42	42→45	47→40	42	201/282/303	102	295	9	5	33%	8%	69	-0.9	209/262/295	86	270	7	6	24%	5%	58	-1.7	220/288/344	124	255	13	2	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→38	43→50	45→30	45	204/279/315	111	288	11	4	31%	9%	70	-0.9	217/292/358	141	289	16	3	29%	9%	84	+0.2	217/296/371	154	282	18	1	28%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→48	46→45	49→50	43	193/273/321	128	259	13	9	30%	7%	70	-0.9	215/289/341	126	276	12	9	25%	7%	79	-0.2	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→37	41→50	49→45	42	208/284/313	105	305	8	7	32%	7%	71	-0.8	197/291/331	134	305	14	5	37%	10%	79	-0.2	181/287/328	147	281	17	4	38%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Jake Rucker 2023 · AAA	23	42→43	42→45	48→45	44	204/281/312	109	285	8	12	30%	8%	70	-0.9	208/266/309	101	272	9	9	25%	6%	63	-1.4	210/274/329	118	244	13	9	20%	7%	68	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps