JeanPierre Ortiz

JeanPierre Ortiz P Dayton Dragons

+0.8 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2030

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.4%

IP91

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2030

OFP—40

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	12	0	16	75	19	14	0	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
2025	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	26	10	91	382	83	33	7	16.1%	10.2%	2.3%	2.86	4.31	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	2	2	9	41	7	5	1	—	—	—	7.27	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	17	17	91	385	81	37	11	20.9%	9.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.7
2026 Total	22	MLB	CIN	—	—	100	426	88	42	12	20.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.74	4.11	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	CIN	21	21	115	484	105	43	14	21.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.39	4.33	+1.3
2028	24	MLB	CIN	24	24	134	564	126	48	16	22.3%	8.5%	2.8%	4.29	4.23	+1.6
2029	25	MLB	CIN	27	27	147	622	141	52	18	22.7%	8.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	CIN	28	28	154	651	149	54	18	22.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.18	4.15	+2.0
2031	27	MLB	CIN	29	29	157	663	152	55	19	22.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.17	4.16	+2.0
2032	28	MLB	CIN	28	28	157	662	151	55	19	22.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.18	4.19	+2.0
2033	29	MLB	CIN	28	28	153	647	147	55	19	22.7%	8.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.23	+1.9
2034	30	MLB	CIN	27	27	149	627	141	54	19	22.5%	8.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+1.7
2035	31	MLB	CIN	26	26	143	605	135	53	18	22.3%	8.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.37	+1.5
2036	32	MLB	CIN	25	25	138	581	128	51	18	22.0%	8.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.46	+1.3
2037	33	MLB	CIN	24	24	132	555	120	50	18	21.7%	9.0%	3.2%	4.50	4.55	+1.1
2038	34	MLB	CIN	23	23	125	527	113	49	17	21.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.9
2039	35	MLB	CIN	21	21	118	497	104	47	17	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.79	+0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			40	12	116	498	87	58	10	17.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.33	4.18	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			69	21	200	856	150	100	17	17.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.33	4.18	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JeanPierre Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.9%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.24	22.3%	13.7%	396	-0.26	—	—	—
David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	97
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	93
Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	92
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	92
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	92
Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	92
Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	92
Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	22	SP-	3.42	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.08	22.0%	5.4%	139	+1.66	3.42	240	90
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	90
Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.13	2.77	186	90
Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	90
David Festa R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	22	SP-	3.66	19.9%	9.5%	1.9%	.275	3.74	26.6%	17.0%	302	+0.08	3.66	405	90
Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	90
Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Rorik Maltrud R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	89
Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.7%	8.2%	2.8%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.25	3.94	138	89
Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	22	SP-	3.52	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.92	3.52	306	89
Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.9	$19M	+$15M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.7	$17M	+$12M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.5	$16M	+$8M
Totals		$20M		$107M	+$88M