Cam Smith

RF Houston Astros

Age 24 R/R 6'3" / 224 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	A+CHC	57	.333/.429/.500	1	1	126	—	.320/.393/.480
2025	22	MLBHOU	493	.236/.314/.358	9	8	90	-0.1
2026	23	MLBHOU	568	.210/.281/.390	21	12	86	0.2
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	567	.237/.309/.410	19	31	101	1.7
2028PROJ98% MLB	25	MLBHOU	561	.237/.310/.412	19	31	101	1.8
2029PROJ98% MLB	26	MLBHOU	561	.237/.310/.411	19	30	101	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed90

Bat Spd90

Barrel%57

xwOBA52

Form.224/.294/.413 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .234/.305/.408

CompsAnthony Volpe (age 23) · Oswald Peraza (age 23) · Royce Lewis (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 105101vR 89

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .309 / .410

PA567

HR19

SB31

K%26

BB%8

BABIP290

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$45M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

905.9%

xAVG

300.235

POWER45

Barrel%

579.2

Avg EV

4088.3

Bat Spd

9077.9

EYE45

Chase%

9015.4%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%29%▼▼32% over 63 PA (45d) · proj 26%

BB%8%·8% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.190▲.217 over 92 AB (60d) · proj .174

HR/BB5.8%·6.7% over 60 BBE (60d) · proj 5.3%

BABIP.283·.232 over 56 BIP (60d) · proj .286

SLASH.224/.294/.413·proj .234/.305/.408

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 599 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

165

434

—

wRC+

116

◀◀L

wOBA

340

288

◀◀L

ISO

180

110

◀◀L

BABIP

320

311

—

27.9%

27.0%

▶R

BB%

11.5%

8.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.8	$12M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.7	$11M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.4	$8M	+$0.9M
Totals		$26M		$62M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	20	19	5	0	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	312	15	5	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	48	16	3	1	1	6	9	2	1	1	333	429	500	929	167	385	16	11	406	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	57	48	15	2	1	6	8	12	0	1	0	312	411	771	1.182	458	290	21	14	486	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	90	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2026	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	568	510	107	17	6	21	44	148	7	12	2	210	281	390	671	180	248	26	8	296	86	-10	+2	+4	-6	+12	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1061	951	211	38	9	30	87	285	14	20	3	222	296	375	672	154	281	27	8	300	89	-14	+3	+2	-11	+23	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	20	19	5	0	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	296	20	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	50	16	3	1	1	4	11	2	1	1	320	393	480	873	160	348	19	7	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	57	51	14	2	1	5	5	17	0	1	0	275	339	647	986	373	257	30	9	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	441	103	20	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	234	312	354	665	120	320	28	9	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2026	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	568	511	107	16	6	22	44	148	7	12	2	209	281	393	674	184	248	26	8	295	86	-10	+2	+4	-6	+12	0.2
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	121	33	4	4	6	9	32	2	2	1	273	333	521	854	248	318	24	7	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	134	115	36	5	4	7	15	24	2	2	1	313	402	609	1.010	296	337	18	11	429	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	441	103	20	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	234	312	354	665	120	316	28	9	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2025	22	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	90	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2026	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	568	511	107	16	6	22	44	148	7	12	2	209	281	393	674	184	245	26	8	295	86	-10	+2	+4	-6	+12	0.2
2026	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	568	510	107	17	6	21	44	148	7	12	2	210	281	390	671	180	248	26	8	296	86	-10	+2	+4	-6	+12	0.2
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	122	33	4	4	6	9	32	2	2	1	270	333	516	850	246	302	24	7	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	440	103	20	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	234	312	355	666	120	320	28	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	568	512	107	16	6	22	44	148	7	12	2	209	281	393	674	184	248	26	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	122	33	4	4	6	9	32	2	2	1	270	333	516	850	246	302	24	7	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	440	103	20	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	234	312	355	666	120	320	28	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	568	512	107	16	6	22	44	148	7	12	2	209	281	393	674	184	248	26	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	542	486	115	18	5	19	44	138	7	30	5	235	307	408	716	173	286	25	8	317	101	+0	+4	+6	-6	+12	2.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	567	509	120	20	5	19	46	145	7	31	6	237	309	410	719	173	290	26	8	318	101	+0	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	572	513	121	19	5	20	47	146	7	31	6	235	308	411	719	175	286	26	8	318	101	+1	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	572	513	120	19	5	20	47	146	7	31	6	235	308	410	718	175	286	26	8	318	101	+1	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	567	508	119	18	5	20	47	145	7	30	6	234	307	407	714	173	285	26	8	316	100	+0	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	559	501	116	18	5	19	46	144	7	27	5	232	305	402	707	170	284	26	8	313	98	-1	+3	+6	-6	+12	1.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	547	491	112	17	5	18	45	143	6	23	4	229	302	395	697	166	282	26	8	309	95	-3	+3	+5	-6	+12	1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	535	481	108	16	5	17	43	141	6	19	4	225	297	386	683	161	279	26	8	304	92	-5	+2	+4	-6	+12	0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	520	467	102	15	4	16	42	139	6	13	3	220	292	374	666	154	274	27	8	297	87	-8	+1	+3	-6	+11	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	561	503	119	20	5	19	46	143	7	31	6	237	310	412	722	174	290	25	8	319	101	+1	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	561	503	119	20	5	19	46	143	7	30	6	237	310	411	721	174	290	25	8	319	101	+1	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	556	498	117	19	5	19	46	142	7	30	5	236	309	408	717	173	289	26	8	318	100	+0	+4	+7	-6	+12	1.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	548	492	115	19	5	18	45	142	6	26	5	234	307	403	710	170	288	26	8	315	98	-1	+3	+6	-6	+12	1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	536	481	111	18	5	17	44	140	6	23	4	231	303	396	700	165	286	26	8	311	95	-3	+3	+5	-6	+12	1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	524	470	107	17	5	16	43	139	6	18	4	227	299	387	686	160	282	27	8	305	92	-5	+2	+4	-6	+11	0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	510	459	101	16	4	15	41	137	5	13	3	222	293	375	669	154	278	27	8	298	87	-8	+1	+3	-5	+11	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4857	4357	1000	167	43	153	398	1271	58	191	36	230	302	393	695	163	286	26	8	310	96	-29	+24	+41	-52	+105	9.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	133	22	6	20	53	170	8	26	5	228	301	389	691	161	285	26	8	310	96	-4	+3	+5	-7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5634	5056	1161	181	52	187	459	1466	69	227	44	230	302	397	699	167	283	26	8	310	96	-29	+28	+48	-59	+119	10.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	134	21	6	22	53	169	8	26	5	230	303	400	702	170	283	26	8	310	96	-3	+3	+6	-7	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	10.4	6,929	169	253	277	321	434	-57	+11	25.0	25.4
/162	664	16	24	-5.5	+1.0	2.4	pk7: 26
#2Tommy Harper'62-'76 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,164 PA	10.8	7,164	146	408	259*	343*	417*	-51	+4	24.7	23.5
/162	664	14	38	-4.7	+0.4	2.3	pk7: 22
#3Jim Rivera'52-'61 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,008 PA	6.0	4,008	83	160	251*	315*	426*	-23	-0	9.1	9.5
/162	664	14	27	-3.8	-0.0	1.5	pk7: 10
#4Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.2	5,423	178	222	230	300	397	-58	+5	9.0	8.7
/162	664	22	27	-7.1	+0.7	1.1	pk7: 8
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cam Smith (OGILVIE)	24	45	45	60	45	233/305/405	172	286	20	31	26%	8%	101	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	48→54	48→50	57→60	42	240/294/380	140	304	17	31	27%	6%	90	+0.6	219/285/342	123	278	15	25	26%	7%	78	-0.3	204/275/315	112	259	14	24	26%	7%	67	-0.7
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	52→51	51→60	56→50	47	259/321/431	172	315	18	23	23%	7%	112	+2.2	258/315/457	199	302	27	14	24%	7%	116	+2.5	245/300/432	188	279	27	12	23%	7%	105	+1.0
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	48→50	55→60	44	251/318/402	152	304	14	26	22%	6%	104	+1.6	228/300/350	122	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/353/387	104	351	6	51	19%	6%	113	+0.7
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2024 · MLB	23	49→55	50→55	56→55	38	247/286/408	161	312	17	25	26%	4%	93	+0.8	248/285/400	152	304	17	21	24%	4%	91	+0.7	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
●Zack Gelof 2024 · MLB	24	50→53	55	55	45	249/315/436	187	334	22	22	31%	8%	111	+2.1	229/296/404	175	307	22	23	31%	8%	97	+1.1	222/292/398	176	286	24	24	30%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44→45	50→60	60	45	222/296/378	156	307	18	31	32%	8%	91	+0.6	221/301/390	169	320	20	25	35%	10%	95	+1.0	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	48→57	51→55	58→60	46	239/306/402	163	322	19	25	31%	9%	99	+1.3	253/309/420	167	358	18	28	32%	7%	104	+1.6	254/307/424	170	356	18	33	32%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Blake Dunn 2024 · AA	25	53→55	50→45	62→60	44	256/342/412	156	350	18	36	30%	8%	116	+2.5	232/311/337	105	327	10	27	30%	8%	86	+0.3	227/306/311	84	322	7	26	29%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Jordan Lawlar 2024 · MLB	22	47→55	47→50	59→60	47	231/310/369	138	309	14	28	28%	8%	94	+0.9	240/311/398	158	324	15	25	29%	8%	100	+1.3	247/313/444	196	333	20	28	30%	7%	109	+1.0
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
●Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	51→56	46→50	63→60	42	249/291/387	138	301	12	28	22%	4%	90	+0.6	249/304/389	140	312	12	20	23%	6%	95	+1.0	250/311/388	138	319	11	18	24%	6%	98	+0.7
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	43→53	49→50	63→60	43	217/282/372	156	302	15	30	32%	8%	83	+0.1	264/327/402	138	323	13	34	21%	7%	107	+1.8	277/340/401	125	327	11	37	18%	7%	111	+1.8
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	54→55	46	237/301/384	147	305	16	24	27%	8%	93	+0.8	233/299/358	125	300	12	15	25%	8%	86	+0.3	230/298/342	112	290	10	18	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	50→53	50	58→55	49	248/318/415	167	325	17	20	28%	9%	106	+1.8	229/307/372	143	303	14	23	27%	10%	93	+0.8	213/293/369	156	278	16	28	28%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	244/312/386	141	323	15	32	28%	8%	98	+1.2	233/302/360	127	321	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.5	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4

Cam Smith

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps