Colby Shelton

2B Birmingham Barons

Age 24 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1183ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ACWS	115	.141/.248/.172	1	4	-4	—	.117/.195/.146
2026	23	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	581	.245/.344/.483	26	15	85	—	.204/.271/.401
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBCWS	4	.217/.280/.393	0	0	86	0.0
2028PROJ39% MLB	25	MLBCWS	101	.219/.283/.396	4	2	88	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	26	MLBCWS	170	.220/.285/.396	6	3	89	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Arb-2$0.4M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO81

Z-Con%59

Chase%54

K%49

Speed47

wRC+41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsIsan Díaz (age 24) · Austin Wells (age 25) · Nathan Hickey (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .280 / .393

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%7

BABIP268

ISO173

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	394	347	74	21	2	17	36	98	5	8	4	213	296	432	729	219	242	25	9	318	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	140	112	38	13	1	7	25	26	2	6	1	339	468	661	1.128	321	388	19	18	480	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	47	38	10	0	0	2	6	7	1	1	0	263	378	421	799	158	258	15	13	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	394	359	66	19	2	14	24	119	5	8	4	184	245	365	610	181	221	30	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	140	123	32	10	1	6	14	34	2	6	1	260	345	504	849	244	310	24	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	157	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	581	522	107	32	3	22	42	167	8	15	5	205	274	404	679	199	250	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	581	497	122	34	3	26	67	131	8	15	5	245	344	483	827	237	277	23	12	359	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	581	526	107	32	3	22	42	167	8	15	5	203	274	401	676	198	244	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	581	526	107	32	3	22	42	167	8	15	5	203	274	401	676	198	244	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	380	347	75	17	2	13	26	106	4	7	2	216	279	389	668	174	267	28	7	295	86	-6	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	217	280	393	673	176	268	25	0	297	86	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	39%	260	237	51	12	1	9	18	71	3	5	2	218	282	392	674	175	268	27	7	298	88	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	56%	305	277	61	14	1	11	22	83	3	6	2	219	284	393	677	174	269	27	7	299	89	-4	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	62%	321	292	63	14	1	11	23	87	3	6	2	219	285	391	676	172	270	27	7	299	89	-4	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	328	298	65	15	1	11	24	89	3	5	2	219	285	388	673	169	271	27	7	298	88	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	64%	321	291	63	14	1	10	24	87	3	5	2	218	284	383	667	165	271	27	7	296	86	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	64%	314	285	62	14	1	10	23	86	3	4	2	215	281	376	656	160	269	27	7	292	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	64%	297	271	57	13	1	9	21	83	3	3	3	211	276	367	643	155	266	28	7	286	80	-7	-1	-3	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	39%	101	92	20	5	0	4	7	28	1	2	1	219	283	396	679	177	269	28	7	300	88	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	56%	170	154	35	8	1	6	12	46	2	3	1	220	285	396	682	176	270	27	7	301	89	-2	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	62%	198	180	40	9	1	7	14	54	2	4	1	220	286	395	681	174	271	27	7	301	89	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	212	192	43	10	1	7	16	57	2	3	1	220	286	391	677	171	272	27	8	300	88	-3	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	64%	207	188	41	9	1	7	15	56	2	3	1	219	285	386	672	167	271	27	7	298	86	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	64%	202	183	40	9	1	6	15	55	2	3	1	216	282	379	661	163	270	27	7	293	83	-4	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	64%	191	173	37	8	1	6	14	53	2	2	2	213	277	370	647	157	267	28	7	288	80	-5	-0	-2	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1281	1162	256	58	6	43	93	349	13	20	8	220	285	392	677	171	274	27	7	297	82	-21	+1	-5	+5	+28	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	130	29	3	22	47	177	7	10	4	220	286	392	678	171	273	27	7	297	82	-11	+0	-2	+2	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3052	2767	583	138	11	101	219	845	34	57	23	211	277	378	655	167	262	28	7	289	82	-39	+1	-7	+8	+51	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	124	29	2	22	47	180	7	12	5	211	277	379	655	168	260	28	7	289	82	-11	+0	-2	+2	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 394 PAwOBA .311 → .260 (−51)K% 24.9% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.87%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.88%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.012	6.11%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.08%
Singles /BIP	13.65%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.001	×1.012	12.72%
Doubles /BIP	8.43%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.001	×1.012	7.77%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.001	×1.012	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	6.83%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.53%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .311 → .260; ISO .219 → .183; BABIP .242 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 140 PAwOBA .469 → .371 (−98)K% 18.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.57%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.14%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	10.16%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	1.09%
Singles /BIP	19.77%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.985	×0.988	16.74%
Doubles /BIP	15.12%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.985	×0.988	11.48%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.985	×0.988	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	8.14%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	7.08%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .469 → .371; ISO .321 → .279; BABIP .388 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 115 PAwOBA .205 → .162 (−43)K% 21.7% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.009	×1.360	—	—	29.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.57%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.990	6.35%
HBP% /PA	2.61%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	2.01%
Singles /BIP	17.57%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.985	×0.990	15.50%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.985	×0.990	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.910	×0.985	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×0.990	1.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .205 → .162; ISO .030 → .027; BABIP .173 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#4Shane Halter'97-'04 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,109 PA	3.2	2,109	45	17	238*	295*	375*	+6	+26	5.3	5.3
/162	664	14	5	+2.0	+8.3	1.7	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.9	1,285	42	20	218	280	385	+14	+12	2.8	2.8
/162	664	22	10	+7.1	+6.2	1.4	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Pete Mackanin'73-'81 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,686 PA	2.5	1,686	30	27	222*	261*	370*	+6	+23	0.6	1.6
/162	664	12	11	+2.4	+8.9	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shelton (OGILVIE)	24	37	49	50	46	214/277/386	172	267	7	4	28%	7%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Isan Díaz 2020 · MLB	24	42→43	50→55	45	44	217/288/375	158	293	18	8	32%	8%	87	+0.4	217/289/371	154	288	18	7	30%	8%	86	+0.3	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Austin Wells 2024 · MLB	25	41→44	52→55	53→50	46	216/288/382	166	271	20	11	28%	8%	88	+0.5	215/292/383	168	259	21	6	25%	9%	91	+0.6	205/292/372	167	241	22	5	25%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Nathan Hickey 2024 · AA	24	42→40	53→50	47→40	46	216/296/388	172	293	21	4	33%	9%	93	+0.8	192/272/328	136	276	15	4	34%	9%	70	-0.8	173/257/299	126	247	13	3	34%	10%	56	-1.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	42	53→55	47→50	42	221/281/392	171	284	21	10	30%	7%	88	+0.4	212/278/350	138	282	17	9	30%	7%	78	-0.3	198/268/323	125	260	15	12	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
●Ryan Schimpf 2013 · AA	25	39→41	51→60	48→45	44	204/278/369	164	273	18	7	31%	8%	82	-0.0	194/271/365	171	248	21	4	30%	8%	79	-0.2	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	39→43	51→55	52→50	45	204/280/371	167	286	19	14	34%	9%	83	+0.1	217/293/379	162	329	18	12	36%	10%	89	+0.5	211/292/367	157	326	17	12	38%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2024 · A	24	40	55	46→45	43	221/282/399	178	261	24	5	26%	6%	91	+0.6	211/265/357	146	300	17	5	34%	6%	74	-0.5	170/218/293	123	253	15	0	38%	4%	38	-0.9
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2024 · AAA	24	40→42	52→50	52→40	44	210/289/381	170	282	20	6	32%	8%	89	+0.5	191/274/317	126	274	14	4	34%	8%	70	-0.9	163/254/270	107	234	13	1	34%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Travis Scott 2009 · A	24	43	49→55	46→40	42	221/276/367	146	289	17	5	29%	7%	80	-0.1	220/272/371	151	280	17	5	27%	6%	80	-0.2	220/274/391	171	267	19	2	25%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/325	146	259	19	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	196/276/333	137	263	16	6	30%	9%	73	-0.6	162/237/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Addison Barger 2024 · AAA	24	45→49	49→55	45	43	227/292/375	148	308	17	7	31%	8%	88	+0.4	226/292/393	167	281	19	7	26%	8%	93	+0.8	224/289/406	182	269	21	6	25%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Jared Keel 2009 · A	24	38→37	52→50	48→45	47	205/287/369	164	247	20	10	26%	8%	86	+0.3	203/287/346	143	259	16	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	178/276/316	138	223	16	1	27%	11%	68	-0.6
✕Jon Gaston 2011 · AA	24	41→42	52→55	53→50	42	216/276/389	172	281	19	10	30%	7%	85	+0.2	207/252/327	120	282	11	13	30%	5%	61	-1.5	193/225/294	101	262	7	14	28%	3%	40	-2.2
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Zack Collins 2020 · MLB	25	41→42	51→50	48→40	50	206/304/368	161	304	18	3	36%	12%	92	+0.7	204/299/355	151	293	16	5	33%	11%	86	+0.3	184/277/316	132	274	14	4	35%	11%	69	-0.5
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Scott Moore 2008 · MLB	24	45→50	52→55	45→50	42	229/296/398	169	309	20	9	32%	7%	95	+1.0	223/284/375	152	279	17	7	26%	6%	85	+0.2	236/301/378	142	289	16	5	23%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Jesús Bastidas 2023 · AA	24	42	49→50	45→50	41	213/282/354	140	287	17	12	31%	7%	80	-0.1	210/279/347	137	276	16	12	29%	6%	77	-0.3	202/274/337	135	264	15	13	29%	6%	70	-0.8

Colby Shelton

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps