Colby Shelton — OGILVIE

Colby Shelton2B Birmingham Barons

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION530 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .333

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP262

ISO111

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 54

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER54

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	26	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	35	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	158	30	6	163	-4	-14	+0	—	—	+2	-1.2
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	35	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	159	30	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	35	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	158	30	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	35	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	158	30	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	CWS	—	530	477	96	29	3	19	40	153	6	14	4	201	272	394	666	193	248	29	8	286	80	-13	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CWS	—	140	112	38	13	1	7	25	26	2	6	1	339	468	661	1.128	321	388	19	18	480	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	CWS	—	390	344	72	21	2	17	36	97	4	8	3	209	292	430	722	221	235	25	9	314	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	CWS	2%	10	9	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	222	300	333	633	111	260	30	10	294	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	CWS	—	540	486	98	30	3	19	41	156	6	14	4	202	272	393	665	191	250	29	8	286	80	-13	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	39%	337	306	66	16	2	12	25	89	3	7	2	216	281	399	680	183	263	26	7	300	89	-4	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	56%	600	544	119	29	3	21	45	157	6	12	4	219	286	399	685	180	266	26	8	304	92	-6	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	64%	606	548	121	29	3	21	47	158	6	13	4	221	290	400	689	179	268	26	8	306	93	-5	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	66%	605	547	121	29	3	21	47	157	6	13	4	221	290	400	690	179	268	26	8	307	94	-5	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	67%	600	541	120	29	3	21	48	157	6	12	4	222	292	403	695	181	268	26	8	306	93	-5	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	66%	592	534	117	28	3	20	47	156	6	12	4	219	290	395	685	176	267	26	8	304	92	-6	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	583	525	116	28	3	20	47	155	6	11	3	221	292	400	692	179	266	27	8	301	90	-7	+1	-2	+2	+13	0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	403	364	78	19	2	13	32	108	4	7	2	214	285	385	670	170	264	27	8	298	88	-6	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	385	347	73	17	2	12	31	105	4	7	2	210	283	375	657	164	261	27	8	292	84	-7	+1	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	CWS	70%	355	321	65	15	1	11	28	99	3	6	2	202	273	358	631	156	256	28	8	285	79	-9	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	39%	130	118	26	6	1	5	10	34	1	3	1	220	287	415	702	195	265	26	8	294	89	-2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	56%	335	303	68	17	2	12	25	88	4	7	2	224	292	413	705	188	267	26	7	298	92	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	64%	387	350	78	19	2	14	30	101	4	8	2	223	292	409	700	186	269	26	8	300	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	66%	398	360	80	19	2	14	31	103	4	8	3	222	291	403	694	181	269	26	8	301	94	-3	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	67%	401	362	80	19	2	14	32	105	4	8	2	221	291	401	692	180	269	26	8	300	93	-3	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	66%	389	351	78	19	2	14	31	102	4	8	2	222	293	407	700	185	268	26	8	298	92	-4	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	380	343	75	18	2	13	30	101	4	7	2	219	289	397	686	178	267	27	8	296	90	-4	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	261	235	51	12	1	9	21	70	3	5	1	217	290	391	681	174	265	27	8	292	88	-4	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	249	225	47	11	1	8	20	68	2	4	1	209	279	373	653	164	262	27	8	287	84	-5	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	CWS	70%	249	225	47	11	1	8	20	69	2	4	1	209	279	373	653	164	257	28	8	280	79	-6	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3179	2872	630	151	16	111	250	841	32	62	17	219	289	399	688	180	268	26	8	296	88	-38	+6	-10	+11	+69	3.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	129	31	3	23	51	172	7	13	3	220	290	400	690	181	268	26	8	296	88	-8	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5191	4689	1010	240	25	173	405	1379	53	104	33	215	285	388	673	173	264	27	8	298	88	-60	+8	-15	+18	+110	6.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	127	30	3	22	51	173	7	13	4	216	287	390	677	174	265	27	8	298	88	-8	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.8	3,182	108	63	219	285	395	+34	+18	8.7	8.2
/162	664	22	13	+7.1	+3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shelton (OGILVIE)	23	36→41	49→54	50→55	52	209/275/384	175	260	7	5	27%	7%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→43	49→55	54→50	48	203/290/352	149	278	16	16	32%	10%	82	+0.0	214/299/386	172	268	20	10	27%	10%	93	+0.8	205/292/383	178	245	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.3
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	44	48→55	51→45	44	220/290/372	152	284	15	6	27%	7%	87	+0.4	226/287/341	115	299	8	7	26%	6%	78	-0.3	221/280/392	172	282	21	5	29%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Daniel Johnson 2018 · A	23	45→48	50	48→55	39	234/278/386	152	286	18	13	25%	4%	85	+0.2	234/281/378	144	303	14	15	27%	5%	84	+0.2	221/274/370	149	270	18	21	25%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	47	47→55	54→40	46	234/295/376	142	288	14	5	24%	7%	89	+0.5	206/266/291	85	289	6	5	29%	7%	59	-1.7	164/227/201	37	243	0	2	30%	7%	22	-1.4
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	43	50	53→55	45	220/289/382	163	296	17	9	31%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/344	136	276	15	19	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	216/275/390	173	253	21	15	24%	7%	85	+0.2	224/289/407	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+0.9	221/290/400	179	249	21	19	21%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Drew Gilbert 2023 · A	22	48	47→50	53→45	48	239/297/376	137	271	15	16	18%	7%	90	+0.6	224/293/368	144	273	16	9	23%	7%	87	+0.4	210/294/357	148	242	16	5	20%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	40→47	48→55	52→55	43	209/268/351	142	267	16	12	28%	7%	74	-0.6	223/290/379	156	286	16	20	27%	8%	88	+0.4	222/295/383	161	284	16	22	27%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	40	46→55	47→45	45	203/281/331	128	258	14	8	26%	8%	74	-0.5	219/278/387	168	291	21	4	31%	6%	86	+0.3	217/271/408	191	280	27	0	32%	5%	84	+0.1
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→51	46→55	48→50	52	226/305/358	133	270	13	12	21%	9%	89	+0.5	230/298/389	159	277	18	11	23%	8%	93	+0.8	222/292/383	160	263	19	11	23%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.4	216/294/377	161	276	19	10	28%	9%	90	+0.6	211/292/376	165	256	20	8	25%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Michael Massey 2022 · A	24	43→53	53→55	51→50	44	227/281/401	174	256	21	11	21%	6%	90	+0.6	241/290/405	164	287	19	10	23%	5%	94	+0.9	246/293/414	168	288	20	9	22%	5%	96	+0.8
✕Justin Nelson 2006 · A	23	43→41	52→55	47→45	45	225/290/398	173	287	19	10	28%	8%	93	+0.8	214/284/388	174	304	20	6	34%	8%	88	+0.5	204/279/384	180	291	21	3	36%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Daulton Varsho 2019 · A	23	47→49	47→60	55→50	42	233/291/362	129	300	15	18	27%	6%	84	+0.2	239/303/406	167	279	19	17	21%	7%	99	+1.3	228/296/424	195	260	25	15	23%	8%	98	+1.1
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	43→41	48→45	49→45	39	217/279/354	138	308	17	8	34%	6%	79	-0.2	211/267/319	108	265	11	8	24%	5%	66	-1.1	203/308/311	108	241	12	6	20%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Kody Clemens 2019 · A	23	46→44	44→60	50→45	45	227/284/346	119	293	11	8	26%	7%	78	-0.3	201/260/331	130	273	12	8	30%	7%	65	-1.2	227/284/435	209	256	27	8	24%	6%	97	+0.8
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	82	-0.0	206/259/371	165	258	20	9	28%	6%	75	-0.5	239/297/403	165	282	19	7	22%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	48→49	46→50	51→50	44	234/296/369	134	315	13	13	29%	7%	88	+0.4	226/286/368	142	305	15	10	29%	8%	84	+0.1	219/279/368	149	290	16	8	29%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Brett Wisely 2022 · A	23	48→50	50	52→55	43	240/297/387	147	323	18	20	31%	8%	93	+0.8	230/298/363	133	301	13	18	26%	8%	87	+0.4	227/298/355	129	291	12	17	25%	8%	83	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps