Colby Shelton — OGILVIE

Colby SheltonSS Birmingham Barons

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION354 act + 236 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .274 / .367

PA236

HR7

SB6

K%28

BB%7

BABIP264

ISO158

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$37M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	35	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	159	30	6	165	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	CWS	—	354	321	64	19	2	13	25	102	5	10	3	199	268	393	660	193	245	29	7	283	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
YTD	23	AA	CWS	—	354	307	73	23	2	15	39	78	5	10	3	238	333	472	806	235	269	22	11	352	128	+11	+1	+0	+4	+10	2.6
ROS	23	AA	CWS	2%	236	215	45	11	1	7	16	65	3	6	2	209	274	367	641	158	263	28	7	289	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		264	20	0	281	73	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	AA	CWS	—	359	326	65	19	2	13	25	103	5	10	3	199	267	390	656	190	245	29	7	283	74	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
TOT	23	AA	CWS	—	590	536	109	30	3	20	41	167	8	16	5	203	270	382	653	179	253	28	7	285	76	-16	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CWS	39%	337	306	66	15	2	11	24	90	4	7	2	216	281	386	667	170	265	27	7	294	83	-6	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2028	25	MLB	CWS	56%	389	353	78	18	2	13	28	102	5	8	2	221	288	394	681	173	267	26	7	298	87	-6	+1	+0	+4	+11	1.0
2029	26	MLB	CWS	64%	624	565	125	28	3	21	46	163	8	13	4	221	289	393	682	172	269	26	7	300	88	-8	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.7
2030	27	MLB	CWS	66%	623	563	125	28	3	21	47	162	8	13	4	222	291	394	686	172	269	26	8	301	89	-8	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.8
2031	28	MLB	CWS	67%	618	559	123	28	3	20	47	162	7	13	4	220	289	388	677	168	269	26	8	300	88	-8	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.6
2032	29	MLB	CWS	66%	423	383	84	19	2	14	32	112	5	9	3	219	288	389	677	170	268	26	8	299	87	-6	+1	-1	+5	+12	1.0
2033	30	MLB	CWS	65%	416	376	81	18	2	13	32	111	5	8	2	215	286	378	663	162	267	27	8	296	85	-7	+1	-2	+4	+12	0.8
2027	24	MLB	CWS	39%	130	118	26	6	1	4	9	35	2	3	1	220	287	390	677	169	266	27	7	287	78	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2028	25	MLB	CWS	56%	217	196	43	10	1	7	16	57	3	5	1	219	288	388	676	168	268	26	7	291	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.5
2029	26	MLB	CWS	64%	398	361	79	18	2	13	29	104	5	8	3	219	286	388	674	169	270	26	7	293	83	-8	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2030	27	MLB	CWS	66%	410	371	83	19	2	14	31	107	5	9	3	224	292	399	691	175	270	26	8	294	83	-8	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.9
2031	28	MLB	CWS	67%	413	374	83	19	2	14	31	108	5	9	3	222	290	396	686	174	270	26	8	293	83	-8	+1	-0	+4	+12	0.8
2032	29	MLB	CWS	66%	278	252	54	12	1	9	21	73	3	6	2	214	283	377	660	163	269	26	8	292	81	-6	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.5
2033	30	MLB	CWS	65%	271	245	53	12	1	9	21	72	3	5	2	216	286	384	670	167	268	27	8	289	80	-6	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2122	1922	422	96	10	70	158	557	26	45	15	220	288	389	677	170	270	26	7	292	82	-44	+3	-3	+23	+60	4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	128	29	3	21	48	171	8	14	5	217	285	384	669	166	268	26	7	292	82	-13	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	3781	3423	739	165	18	121	279	1002	48	81	25	216	284	381	665	165	266	27	7	294	83	-71	+6	-4	+41	+107	8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	127	28	3	21	48	172	8	14	4	216	284	381	665	165	266	26	7	294	83	-12	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	16	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,121	69	44	220	285	389	+23	+12	5.5	5.5
	/162	664	22	14	220	285	389	+7.1	+3.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shelton (OGILVIE)	23	36→41	48→53	50→55	50	203/270/382	179	253	20	16	28%	7%	76	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	44	48→60	51→45	44	220/290/372	152	284	15	6	27%	7%	85	+0.7	225/286/339	114	297	8	7	26%	6%	74	-0.1	224/283/416	193	281	26	5	30%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	86	+0.8	217/296/385	168	279	20	10	28%	9%	92	+1.2	213/294/385	172	258	21	8	26%	9%	88	+0.7
●Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	40→47	51→60	52→55	42	210/269/372	161	268	19	12	29%	7%	76	+0.1	228/295/407	179	286	20	20	27%	8%	95	+1.4	229/301/413	184	286	21	22	27%	9%	97	+1.3
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	43	50	53→55	45	220/289/382	163	296	17	9	31%	8%	87	+0.8	209/284/358	149	274	16	19	29%	9%	79	+0.3	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	47	48→50	51→50	44	234/296/376	142	314	15	13	30%	7%	88	+0.9	227/287/373	146	306	16	10	29%	7%	84	+0.6	221/280/371	150	293	17	8	30%	7%	77	+0.1
●Daniel Johnson 2018 · A	23	45→50	51→55	48→55	39	233/275/388	155	283	19	13	26%	4%	83	+0.6	237/283/395	158	306	17	15	28%	5%	88	+0.9	234/288/409	175	280	23	21	25%	6%	91	+0.8
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→38	48→55	53→50	39	206/266/349	143	284	16	9	32%	6%	69	-0.4	214/278/357	143	300	16	10	33%	6%	76	+0.1	212/284/375	163	291	20	9	33%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	47	47→55	54→40	46	234/295/376	142	288	14	5	24%	7%	88	+0.9	207/267/292	85	288	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	167/229/205	38	244	0	2	29%	7%	13	-1.3
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Kody Clemens 2019 · A	23	46→44	44→60	50→45	44	225/283/343	119	292	11	8	26%	7%	74	-0.1	200/260/333	133	271	13	8	30%	7%	62	-0.9	227/284/442	214	256	27	8	24%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Reid Brignac 2009 · AAA	23	44→51	48→50	49→50	41	226/269/370	144	279	15	10	25%	5%	76	+0.0	231/272/348	117	285	11	8	22%	5%	70	-0.3	223/287/325	101	284	9	6	23%	8%	68	-0.3
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Justin Nelson 2006 · A	23	43→41	52→55	47→45	45	225/290/398	173	287	19	10	28%	8%	92	+1.2	214/284/390	176	305	20	6	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/279/389	184	292	22	3	36%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Drew Gilbert 2023 · A	22	48	47→50	53→45	48	239/298/376	137	272	15	16	19%	7%	89	+1.0	226/295/379	153	275	18	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	216/291/376	160	255	19	8	23%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Mark Shannon 2014 · A	23	43→48	47→50	49→50	43	218/265/352	135	254	14	8	21%	5%	69	-0.4	225/262/342	117	278	13	11	24%	4%	65	-0.7	227/260/342	114	278	14	13	24%	3%	60	-0.6
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	44→40	48→45	49→45	39	218/280/356	138	314	17	8	35%	6%	77	+0.1	211/266/317	106	265	11	8	24%	5%	60	-1.0	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1
●Tim Wheeler 2011 · A	23	43→53	45→50	50	43	215/274/335	120	274	13	14	26%	6%	68	-0.5	237/291/367	130	317	13	13	28%	6%	83	+0.6	238/291/359	121	322	12	13	29%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Daulton Varsho 2019 · A	23	47→49	47→60	55→50	42	237/293/366	130	303	15	18	27%	6%	85	+0.7	242/305/419	177	281	21	17	21%	7%	103	+1.9	227/294/419	192	260	25	15	23%	8%	96	+1.3