Eduardo Rivera
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 23
LHP
6'7" / 237 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 83 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106
ERA3.80
FIP3.80
K%24.6%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP83
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (28%)
FB (60%)
CH (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 8 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 38% | 1.7 | 22.0% | 20.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.29 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 8 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 38% | 1.7 | 32.4% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 3.29 | 2.30 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 16 | 12 | 69 | 323 | 75 | 44 | 3 | 75% | 4.3 | 17.2% | 16.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 5.35 | 4.43 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 16 | 12 | 69 | 323 | 75 | 44 | 3 | 75% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 5.35 | 3.40 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 49 | 19 | 1 | 39% | 2.3 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 1.5% | 4.35 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 49 | 19 | 1 | 39% | 2.3 | 27.2% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 0.6% | 4.35 | 2.42 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 87 | 364 | 108 | 46 | 4 | 75% | 4.3 | 23.3% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 2.48 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 87 | 364 | 108 | 46 | 4 | 75% | 4.3 | 29.7% | 12.6% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 2.48 | 2.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 5 | 55 | 224 | 68 | 26 | 3 | 21% | 2.3 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 2.13 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 86 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 86 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +1.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 138 | 574 | 154 | 69 | 11 | — | — | 26.8% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 3.81 | +2.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 90 | 380 | 154 | 69 | 11 | — | — | 40.6% | 18.1% | 22.5% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 3.54 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 104 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.71 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 110 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.48 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 113 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 3.54 | 3.44 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 110 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 3.52 | 3.50 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 85 | 0 | 89 | 377 | 106 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 3.58 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 101 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 9.3% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.71 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 94 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 9.6% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 71 | 0 | 75 | 315 | 92 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 292 | 84 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 9.5% | 19.3% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 60 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 76 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 10.0% | 18.4% | 3.5% | 4.16 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 84 | 0 | 88 | 372 | 99 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 3.87 | 3.72 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 85 | 0 | 89 | 376 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 19.0% | 2.3% | 3.66 | 3.49 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 85 | 0 | 89 | 376 | 107 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 3.45 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 104 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 3.53 | 3.51 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 101 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 3.59 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 96 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 9.3% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.72 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 89 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 9.6% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.90 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 88 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 80 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 9.5% | 19.3% | 3.3% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 72 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 10.0% | 18.4% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 834 | 1 | 881 | 3714 | 1032 | 355 | 96 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 9.6% | 18.2% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.38 | +20.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 234 | 81 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 9.6% | 18.2% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 43 | 267 | 1163 | 257 | 163 | 16 | 49% | 3.1 | 22.1% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.47 | 3.75 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 32 | 200 | 871 | 192 | 122 | 12 | 49% | 3.1 | 22.1% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.47 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eduardo Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 24.5% | 12.1% | 2.2% | — | 3.54 | 27.7% | 18.4% | 279 | -0.63 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Alvarez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.35 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 1.1% | .354 | 4.20 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 407 | +0.85 | 3.35 | 575 | 77 |
| Matt Strahm L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.78 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 4.6% | .242 | 3.87 | 24.7% | 16.6% | 235 | -0.91 | 1.71 | 753 | 76 |
| Jeffrey Springs L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .265 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 16.0% | 233 | -0.54 | 1.39 | 861 | 74 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 74 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 71 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 71 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 71 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 71 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.34 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.12 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.33 | 457 | 69 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 68 |
| Tommy Vail L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 68 |
| Kendry Rojas L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.85 | 23.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 294 | 68 |
| Mitch Farris L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.70 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.27 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 181 | +0.57 | 3.70 | 286 | 68 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 68 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 67 |
| Jared Beck L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 21.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .338 | 6.22 | 20.1% | -8.4% | 82 | +2.06 | 4.16 | 158 | 67 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 66 |
| Jordan Woods L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 66 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 84 | 27.8% | 9.6% | 1.00 | 3.77 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Mychal Givens ('22) | 8 | 57 | 28.4% | 9.8% | 1.06 | 3.40 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Matt Barnes ('23) | 9 | 49 | 29.6% | 10.8% | 1.03 | 4.14 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Will Smith ('24) | 8 | 56 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 1.07 | 3.60 |