Eduardo Rivera
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
LHP
6'7" / 237 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.7 · 2029
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP2.17
SIERA1.32
K%22.6%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.6%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2029
K†5555
SL (22%)
FB (68%)
CH (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 8 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 22.0% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 3.29 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 16 | 12 | 69 | 323 | 75 | 44 | 3 | 17.2% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 5.35 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 18 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 49 | 19 | 1 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 4.35 | 2.83 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 15 | 87 | 364 | 108 | 46 | 4 | 23.3% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.60 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 45 | 186 | 49 | 21 | 4 | 26.4% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 102 | 48 | 11 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.26 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 118 | 500 | 117 | 50 | 12 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 124 | 52 | 13 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 129 | 543 | 127 | 54 | 14 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 129 | 543 | 127 | 54 | 14 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 124 | 53 | 14 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 119 | 52 | 14 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 114 | 51 | 14 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 108 | 49 | 14 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 102 | 48 | 13 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 95 | 47 | 13 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 88 | 45 | 13 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 81 | 43 | 12 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 40 | 222 | 978 | 217 | 135 | 11 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 3.69 | 3.60 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 36 | 200 | 881 | 195 | 122 | 10 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 3.69 | 3.60 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eduardo Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.18 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 349 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 86 |
| Jake Palisch L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.34 | 13.2% | 6.1% | 155 | +0.14 | 3.90 | 198 | 85 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 84 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 82 |
| Ian Krol L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.62 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 169 | -0.02 | 2.81 | 344 | 79 |
| Sean Manaea L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.29 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .345 | 4.02 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 482 | +0.73 | 3.24 | 1,372 | 78 |
| Steven Okert L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .331 | 3.38 | 23.0% | 16.9% | 145 | -0.79 | 2.51 | 537 | 78 |
| Mason Fluharty L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.31 | 25.9% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 204 | 77 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.88 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.91 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 331 | +1.03 | 3.88 | 455 | 77 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 75 |
| Darien Núñez L 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 75 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 75 |
| Alberto Baldonado L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 20.3% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .354 | 4.27 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 144 | +0.17 | 2.47 | 386 | 74 |
| Noah Cameron L 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.99 | 28.6% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .336 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 407 | +1.22 | 2.99 | 483 | 74 |
| Brandon Walter L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.51 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .270 | 2.91 | 27.7% | 23.0% | 139 | -0.60 | 2.89 | 391 | 74 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 74 |
| Tyler Samaniego L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 1.2% | .150 | 3.19 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 91 | -0.24 | 2.63 | 139 | 74 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 73 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 73 |
| Kyle Nelson L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 27.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% | .241 | 3.38 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 63 | -0.56 | 0.90 | 214 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.4 | $14M | +$6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +1.3 | $13M | +$3M |
| Totals | $25M | $86M | +$62M | ||