Eduardo Rivera — OGILVIE

Eduardo Rivera P Worcester Red Sox

Age 23 LHP 6'7" / 237 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.4 · 2031 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%24.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP79

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL4545

CMD7070

K†6065

SL (31%)

FB (54%)

CH (15%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.1	$7M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$26M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	8	3	14	68	22	11	0	38%	1.7	22.0%	20.2%	1.8%	0.0%	3.29	3.80	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	8	3	14	68	22	11	0	38%	1.7	32.4%	16.2%	16.2%	0.0%	3.29	2.30	—
2023	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	16	12	69	323	75	44	3	75%	4.3	17.2%	16.1%	1.1%	1.3%	5.35	4.39	—
2023	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	16	12	69	323	75	44	3	75%	4.3	17.2%	16.1%	1.1%	1.3%	5.35	4.39	—
2023	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	16	12	69	323	75	44	3	75%	4.3	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	0.9%	5.35	3.40	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	1.4%	4.35	2.85	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	1.4%	4.35	2.85	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	27.2%	10.6%	16.7%	0.6%	4.35	2.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	23.3%	14.1%	9.2%	1.2%	2.48	3.58	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	23.3%	14.1%	9.2%	1.2%	2.48	3.58	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	29.7%	12.6%	17.0%	1.1%	2.48	2.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	3	10	44	10	6	1	75%	2.5	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.3%	6.30	4.20	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	8	66	281	81	36	4	27%	2.2	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.7%	3.15	3.62	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	8	66	281	81	36	4	27%	2.2	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.7%	3.15	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	BOS	2	2	10	39	16	3	0	100%	5.0	41.0%	7.7%	33.3%	0.0%	0.90	0.61	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	BOS	24	3	46	198	55	27	3	12%	1.9	27.8%	13.6%	14.1%	1.5%	2.96	3.31	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	BOS	4	3	10	44	10	6	1	75%	2.5	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.3%	6.30	4.16	+0.1
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	BOS	4	3	10	44	10	6	1	75%	2.5	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.3%	6.30	4.16	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	12.0%	12.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.81	—
ROS	23	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	12.0%	12.3%	2.2%	3.78	3.78	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	66	281	81	36	4	—	—	28.8%	12.8%	16.0%	1.4%	3.15	3.62	+0.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	10	42	81	36	4	—	—	191.8%	85.3%	106.6%	9.5%	20.70	2.90	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	88	0	92	389	103	40	9	0%	1.0	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.3%	3.98	3.81	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	89	0	93	394	110	36	9	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.1%	18.7%	2.4%	3.75	3.57	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	89	0	93	394	112	35	9	0%	1.0	28.5%	9.0%	19.5%	2.4%	3.63	3.52	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	88	0	92	388	110	35	10	0%	1.0	28.3%	9.0%	19.3%	2.4%	3.61	3.58	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	85	0	89	377	106	34	10	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.2%	19.0%	2.5%	3.64	3.66	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	81	0	85	360	101	34	10	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.4%	18.6%	2.7%	3.73	3.79	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	76	0	80	338	93	33	10	0%	1.1	27.6%	9.7%	17.9%	2.9%	3.87	3.97	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	71	0	75	315	92	29	10	0%	1.1	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	3.1%	3.89	3.90	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	66	0	69	292	84	28	10	0%	1.0	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	3.4%	4.03	4.13	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	84	0	88	372	98	38	8	0%	1.0	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.3%	3.95	3.78	+0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	85	0	89	376	104	34	9	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.1%	18.7%	2.3%	3.72	3.54	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	85	0	89	376	107	34	9	0%	1.0	28.5%	9.0%	19.5%	2.3%	3.60	3.49	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	83	0	87	367	104	33	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	9.0%	19.3%	2.4%	3.58	3.55	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	81	0	85	359	101	33	9	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.2%	19.0%	2.5%	3.61	3.63	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	77	0	81	342	96	32	9	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.4%	18.6%	2.6%	3.69	3.75	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	72	0	76	321	89	31	9	0%	1.1	27.6%	9.7%	17.9%	2.8%	3.83	3.93	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	68	0	71	300	88	28	9	0%	1.0	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	3.0%	3.85	3.86	+0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	63	0	66	279	80	27	9	0%	1.0	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	3.3%	3.98	4.08	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		700	3	741	3130	875	295	81	0%	1.1	28.0%	9.4%	18.5%	2.6%	3.78	3.35	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	1	200	845	236	80	22	0%	1.1	28.0%	9.4%	18.5%	2.6%	3.78	3.35	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		93	46	278	1220	265	167	16	49%	3.0	21.8%	13.7%	8.1%	1.3%	3.66	3.70	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	879	191	120	11	49%	3.0	21.8%	13.7%	8.1%	1.3%	3.66	3.70	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduardo Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	24.5%	11.9%	2.3%	—	3.63	27.6%	18.2%	279	-0.54	—	—	—
Matt Strahm L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	24.5%	9.6%	3.4%	.242	3.79	24.7%	16.6%	235	-0.29	1.68	757	80
Andrew Alvarez L 2022 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	19.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.354	4.12	17.4%	8.2%	407	+0.73	3.39	628	75
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	71
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	71
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	70
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	70
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	68
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	68
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	68
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	67
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	67
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	66
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	66
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	65
Matt Krook L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	23.6%	16.9%	1.1%	.303	3.73	23.3%	8.5%	156	-0.13	2.47	631	65
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	65
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	64
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	64
Keyshawn Askew L 2023 · 3.70 FIP	23	SW	3.70	24.1%	12.4%	1.9%	.278	3.91	17.4%	-0.6%	99	+0.21	3.32	262	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	85	27.7%	9.6%	1.01	3.82
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17