Brandon Clarke

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #156MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP54ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	14	14	38	4.03	2.07	34.5%	15.5%	—	K 24.0% · BB 20.8% · FIP 3.71
2026	23	MIX4 levels	10	10	30	3.34	2.73	36.4%	14.0%	—	K 28.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.43
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	16	16	90	4.67	4.67	29.0%	16.7%	0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	47	4.39	4.31	28.8%	14.6%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	13	13	80	4.31	4.26	28.6%	14.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff67Control42Command41FB velo63

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCooper Hjerpe (age 23) · Hogan Harris (age 25) · Evan Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%29.0%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4045

CMD3540

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	34.5%	15.5%	19.0%	0.0%	4.03	2.07	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	36.4%	14.0%	22.3%	1.7%	3.34	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	16	16	90	380	110	63	11	100%	5.6	29.0%	16.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	109	461	133	67	13	100%	5.7	28.8%	14.6%	14.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.42	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	121	511	146	72	14	100%	6.1	28.6%	14.0%	14.6%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	504	142	69	14	100%	6.0	28.3%	13.8%	14.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	489	137	67	14	100%	6.1	28.0%	13.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	467	129	65	14	100%	6.1	27.8%	14.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	439	120	63	15	100%	6.1	27.4%	14.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	409	110	60	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	14.7%	12.3%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	57	29	5	100%	5.9	28.8%	14.6%	14.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.31	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	97	47	9	100%	6.2	28.6%	14.0%	14.6%	2.6%	4.31	4.26	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	92	388	110	54	10	100%	6.1	28.3%	13.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.30	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	115	56	11	100%	6.1	28.0%	13.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.38	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	114	57	12	100%	6.1	27.8%	14.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.50	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	93	393	108	56	12	100%	5.8	27.4%	14.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.66	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	101	55	12	100%	5.9	27.0%	14.7%	12.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	99	596	2515	702	355	72	100%	6.0	27.9%	14.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.10	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	236	119	24	100%	6.0	27.9%	14.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		24	24	68	295	76	53	2	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	71	200	872	224	157	6	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Clarke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	29.0%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.40	28.6%	14.4%	350	-0.27	—	—	—
Cooper Hjerpe L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	27.5%	14.7%	1.8%	.257	3.67	29.7%	10.7%	46	+0.06	3.61	139	73
Hogan Harris L 2022 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP	3.71	27.4%	14.7%	1.9%	.274	4.46	20.9%	9.6%	328	+0.75	3.09	501	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	71
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	68
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	68
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	67
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	67
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	66
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	66
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	65
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	65
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	64
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	64
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	64
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	63
Max Fried L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	24	SP-	3.49	24.6%	11.9%	1.7%	.326	3.21	23.9%	17.4%	387	-0.28	2.51	1,448	63
Ethan Small L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	24.2%	14.5%	1.6%	.282	4.00	23.2%	10.7%	154	+0.24	1.13	248	62
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	61
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	61
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	108	28.1%	14.4%	1.16	4.56
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56