Joel Díaz

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #646MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	20	17	74	4.48	4.42	21.6%	8.5%	—	K 15.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 6.63
2025	21	A+NYM	25	18	107	3.80	3.03	21.9%	5.4%	—	K 16.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.74
2026	22	MIX3 levels	19	14	56	6.75	4.40	19.4%	15.6%	—	K 15.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.01
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	17	17	90	5.02	5.02	17.1%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	10	10	54	4.78	4.68	19.2%	10.2%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	16	16	96	4.58	4.48	20.5%	9.4%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJeremy Lee (age 22) · Levi Thomas (age 23) · Nick Hull (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%17.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3555

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	15	15	50	195	63	9	0	100%	3.4	22.0%	5.8%	16.2%	0.0%	0.54	1.98	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	15	15	50	195	63	9	0	100%	3.4	32.3%	4.6%	27.7%	0.0%	0.54	1.13	—
2022	18	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	16	10	55	247	51	25	7	62%	3.5	15.3%	11.9%	3.3%	3.9%	5.86	5.45	—
2022	18	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	16	10	55	247	51	25	7	62%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.8%	5.86	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	6.3%	4.48	6.63	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	6.3%	4.48	6.63	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.42	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.74	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.74	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.80	3.03	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	56	263	51	41	4	74%	2.9	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	1.7%	6.75	5.01	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	56	263	51	41	4	74%	2.9	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	1.7%	6.75	5.01	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	56	263	51	41	4	74%	2.9	19.4%	15.6%	3.8%	1.5%	6.75	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	17	17	90	380	65	43	11	100%	5.3	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	2.8%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	124	525	101	53	15	100%	5.7	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.68	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	144	608	125	57	17	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.48	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	156	659	140	61	18	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.40	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	154	649	138	61	19	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.43	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	149	630	133	60	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.52	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	142	601	126	59	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	565	116	57	19	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	125	527	107	55	19	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	-0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	116	488	96	53	18	100%	6.1	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.8%	5.12	5.25	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	54	228	44	23	6	100%	5.4	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.68	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	96	405	83	38	11	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.48	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	124	524	112	49	15	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.40	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	131	553	118	52	16	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.45	4.43	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	133	562	119	53	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	129	545	114	53	17	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	123	519	107	52	17	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	116	490	99	51	17	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	-0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	108	456	90	49	17	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.8%	5.11	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	170	1014	4281	885	420	133	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.30	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	83	26	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		95	74	343	1482	247	152	45	78%	3.6	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.66	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	43	200	865	144	89	26	78%	3.6	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.66	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	17.1%	11.4%	2.8%	—	4.51	20.4%	10.8%	424	-0.51	—	—	—
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	90
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	89
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	88
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	87
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	133	20.4%	9.9%	1.18	4.68
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60