Mason Marriott
P
ACL D-backs
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 95
ERA4.16
FIP4.16
K%24.9%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 22.2% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 1.69 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 22.2% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 1.81 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 4 | 4 | 20 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 4.9 | 25.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 2.29 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 4 | 4 | 20 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 4.9 | 32.5% | 10.4% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 2.29 | 1.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 52 | 221 | 55 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.19 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 54 | 227 | 57 | 23 | 6 | — | — | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 54 | 227 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 226 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 47 | 197 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 50 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 47 | 282 | 1192 | 302 | 108 | 36 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 3.77 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 9 | 6 | 29 | 110 | 27 | 11 | 0 | 67% | 3.2 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 2.20 | 2.30 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 42 | 200 | 767 | 190 | 78 | 0 | 67% | 3.2 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 2.20 | 2.30 | +7.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Marriott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 3.99 | 25.5% | 16.6% | 162 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 83 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 83 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 79 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 78 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 78 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 78 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 78 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 78 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 78 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 77 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 76 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 76 |
| Michael Grove R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 76 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 76 |
| Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 24.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .264 | 4.53 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 103 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 313 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 52 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 1.13 | 4.10 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |