Mason Marriott

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1346ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AARI	3	0	7	2.57	1.81	22.2%	3.7%	—	K 22.2% · BB 3.7% · FIP 1.69
2025	22	A+ARI	4	4	20	2.29	1.78	32.5%	10.4%	—	K 25.0% · BB 11.9% · FIP 2.50
2026	23	MIX3 levels	12	11	24	5.32	4.07	30.3%	6.1%	—	K 28.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 1.53
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	—	—	0	3.86	3.86	26.4%	8.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	4	4	25	3.78	3.75	26.5%	8.3%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	6	6	38	3.78	3.76	26.5%	8.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMitch Neunborn (age 26) · Drew Rasmussen (age 24) · Brendan Beck (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.86

FIP3.86

K%26.4%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%17.9%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.69	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.69	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.81	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	0.0%	2.29	2.50	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	0.0%	2.29	2.50	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	32.5%	10.4%	22.1%	0.0%	2.29	1.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	24	99	30	6	5	92%	2.0	28.7%	6.8%	21.9%	0.0%	5.32	1.53	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	24	99	30	6	5	92%	2.0	28.7%	6.8%	21.9%	0.0%	5.32	1.53	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	24	99	30	6	5	92%	2.0	30.3%	6.1%	24.2%	5.1%	5.32	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.4%	8.5%	17.9%	2.8%	3.86	3.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	58	244	65	20	7	100%	5.8	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	2.8%	3.86	3.83	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	58	244	65	20	7	100%	5.8	26.5%	8.3%	18.1%	2.8%	3.86	3.84	+1.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	25	106	28	9	3	100%	6.2	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.75	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	38	160	42	13	4	100%	6.3	26.5%	8.3%	18.1%	2.7%	3.78	3.76	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	63	267	71	22	7	100%	5.8	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.37	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	224	70	22	100%	5.9	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.37	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		19	15	50	203	54	17	0	79%	2.6	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	0.0%	3.75	1.92	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	60	200	807	213	67	0	79%	2.6	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	0.0%	3.75	1.92	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 14 IPFIP 0.70 → 1.53 (+0.84)K% 37.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.25%	—	×0.770	28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.150	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.70 → 1.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 6 IPFIP 6.93 → 8.44 (+1.51)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	9.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	11.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.93 → 8.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 20 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.50 (+0.83)K% 32.5% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.47%	—	×0.770	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×1.150	11.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.968	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 7 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.26 (+0.57)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.180	4.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.102	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Marriott (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.83	26.5%	18.2%	116	-0.02	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	76
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	75
Taylor Williams R 2017 · 3.02 FIP	26	SP-	3.02	23.2%	11.1%	0.9%	.333	3.73	23.7%	15.0%	136	+0.71	2.51	309	72
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	71
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	70
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	70
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.58	24.3%	11.9%	195	+0.39	3.19	290	69
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	69
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	69
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	68
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	67
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	67
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	67
Miguel Almonte R 2017 · 3.06 FIP	24	SP-	3.06	23.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.325	5.72	17.6%	3.3%	20	+2.66	3.06	247	67
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	67
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	66
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	26.5%	8.4%	1.08	3.86
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*