Mason Marriott — OGILVIE

Mason Marriott P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%24.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—50

CMD3555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.69	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.69	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	0	7	27	6	1	0	0%	2.3	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	0.0%	2.57	1.81	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	0.0%	2.29	2.50	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	0.0%	2.29	2.50	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	4	4	20	77	25	8	0	100%	4.9	32.5%	10.4%	22.1%	0.0%	2.29	1.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	11	10	23	94	28	6	4	91%	2.1	28.7%	6.8%	21.9%	0.0%	4.76	1.53	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	11	10	23	94	28	6	4	91%	2.1	28.7%	6.8%	21.9%	0.0%	4.76	1.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	ARI	3	3	4	16	3	1	2	100%	1.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	12.5%	7.36	9.17	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	6	5	14	51	19	3	0	83%	2.3	37.3%	5.9%	31.4%	0.0%	3.29	0.70	—
2026	23	AA RAW	ARI	2	2	5	27	6	2	2	100%	2.6	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	7.4%	6.75	6.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	54	227	57	22	6	100%	5.4	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	2.8%	4.16	4.10	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	230	59	21	6	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.1%	16.4%	2.8%	4.08	4.02	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	230	59	21	6	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.01	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	54	226	58	21	6	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.2%	16.4%	2.9%	4.05	4.06	+0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	23	97	25	9	3	100%	5.8	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	2.6%	4.08	4.02	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	36	152	39	14	4	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.1%	16.4%	2.6%	4.00	3.94	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	43	182	47	17	5	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	2.7%	3.96	3.93	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	46	194	50	18	5	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.2%	16.4%	2.7%	3.96	3.97	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	625	160	58	17	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.7%	3.99	3.57	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	216	78	23	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.7%	3.99	3.57	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		18	14	49	198	52	17	0	78%	2.7	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	0.0%	3.47	1.93	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	57	200	803	212	67	0	78%	2.7	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	0.0%	3.47	1.93	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Marriott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	24.9%	10.5%	2.8%	—	4.04	25.5%	16.2%	162	-0.21	—	—	—
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	85
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	84
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.15	394	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	76
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	75
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	74
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	74
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	74
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	74
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	74
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	73
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	73
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.64	23.5%	11.2%	195	+0.45	3.19	286	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	25.4%	9.5%	1.09	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81