Lonnie White Jr.
OF Altoona Curve| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+PIT | 375 | .167/.276/.340 | 14 | 15 | 20 | — | .118/.201/.240 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+PIT | 329 | .220/.329/.394 | 12 | 23 | 38 | — | .155/.235/.276 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+PIT | 484 | .270/.379/.520 | 26 | 21 | 96 | — | .223/.304/.412 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBPIT | 4 | .190/.269/.344 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 25 | MLBPIT | 60 | .194/.272/.349 | 2 | 2 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBPIT | 107 | .196/.275/.351 | 4 | 3 | 79 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates Black | — | 33 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 303 | 516 | 819 | 258 | 400 | 42 | 6 | 356 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 200 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 56 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 259 | 397 | 488 | 885 | 228 | 343 | 28 | 16 | 391 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 76 | 63 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 317 | 434 | 444 | 879 | 127 | 442 | 25 | 14 | 399 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 324 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 129 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 167 | 276 | 340 | 616 | 173 | 219 | 34 | 10 | 281 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 282 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 118 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 220 | 329 | 394 | 723 | 174 | 329 | 36 | 11 | 327 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 380 | 324 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 122 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 262 | 368 | 500 | 868 | 238 | 357 | 32 | 13 | 380 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 104 | 84 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 298 | 422 | 595 | 1.017 | 298 | 316 | 21 | 16 | 432 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Black | — | 33 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 152 | 250 | 402 | 125 | 310 | 61 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 200 | 171 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 205 | 317 | 374 | 691 | 170 | 303 | 36 | 12 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 76 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 206 | 289 | 294 | 584 | 88 | 346 | 38 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 338 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 164 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 118 | 201 | 240 | 441 | 121 | 178 | 44 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 297 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 155 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 155 | 235 | 276 | 511 | 121 | 274 | 47 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 380 | 339 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 149 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 218 | 299 | 392 | 691 | 174 | 334 | 39 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 104 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 242 | 324 | 484 | 807 | 242 | 251 | 28 | 10 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Black | — | 33 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 152 | 250 | 402 | 125 | 273 | 61 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Pirates Black | — | 33 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 303 | 516 | 819 | 258 | 400 | 42 | 6 | 356 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 102 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 209 | 313 | 356 | 668 | 146 | 328 | 37 | 11 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 225 | 62 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 75 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 276 | 407 | 476 | 883 | 200 | 373 | 27 | 16 | 394 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 338 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 164 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 118 | 201 | 240 | 441 | 121 | 181 | 44 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 324 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 129 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 167 | 276 | 340 | 616 | 173 | 219 | 34 | 10 | 281 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 297 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 155 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 155 | 235 | 276 | 511 | 121 | 278 | 47 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 282 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 118 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 220 | 329 | 394 | 723 | 174 | 329 | 36 | 11 | 327 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 430 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 21 | 46 | 178 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 226 | 306 | 421 | 727 | 195 | 323 | 37 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 408 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 26 | 68 | 144 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 270 | 379 | 520 | 899 | 250 | 347 | 30 | 14 | 391 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Black | — | 33 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 152 | 250 | 402 | 125 | 310 | 61 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 238 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 102 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 210 | 313 | 357 | 670 | 147 | 315 | 37 | 11 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 337 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 164 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 119 | 201 | 240 | 441 | 122 | 178 | 44 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 295 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 155 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 156 | 235 | 278 | 513 | 122 | 274 | 47 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 431 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 21 | 46 | 178 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 225 | 306 | 420 | 726 | 195 | 316 | 37 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 375 | 337 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 164 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 119 | 201 | 240 | 441 | 122 | 178 | 44 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 329 | 295 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 155 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 156 | 235 | 278 | 513 | 122 | 274 | 47 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 431 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 21 | 46 | 178 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 225 | 306 | 420 | 726 | 195 | 316 | 37 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | PIT | 2% | 380 | 341 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 31 | 143 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 193 | 271 | 354 | 625 | 161 | 278 | 38 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -11 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | PIT | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 269 | 344 | 613 | 154 | 278 | 50 | 0 | 275 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | PIT | 23% | 260 | 232 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 96 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 196 | 274 | 359 | 633 | 163 | 279 | 37 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | PIT | 35% | 305 | 273 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 110 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 198 | 277 | 361 | 638 | 163 | 279 | 36 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 40% | 321 | 287 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 114 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 199 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 161 | 279 | 36 | 8 | 286 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 44% | 328 | 294 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 115 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 200 | 278 | 359 | 636 | 159 | 279 | 35 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 45% | 321 | 287 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 111 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 155 | 278 | 35 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | PIT | 23% | 60 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 272 | 349 | 621 | 155 | 279 | 37 | 8 | 279 | 78 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | PIT | 35% | 107 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 275 | 351 | 626 | 155 | 279 | 36 | 8 | 281 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 40% | 130 | 116 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 276 | 351 | 627 | 154 | 279 | 35 | 8 | 281 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 44% | 144 | 129 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 276 | 349 | 625 | 151 | 279 | 35 | 8 | 281 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 45% | 143 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 275 | 346 | 621 | 148 | 278 | 35 | 8 | 279 | 78 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 584 | 523 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 207 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 199 | 278 | 356 | 633 | 157 | 282 | 35 | 8 | 280 | 70 | -15 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +13 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 55 | 230 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 198 | 277 | 352 | 629 | 155 | 281 | 35 | 8 | 280 | 70 | -16 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3242 | 2897 | 547 | 95 | 13 | 109 | 264 | 1244 | 57 | 125 | 29 | 189 | 270 | 343 | 613 | 155 | 281 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -45 | +5 | +1 | -10 | +38 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 110 | 19 | 3 | 22 | 53 | 249 | 11 | 25 | 6 | 189 | 269 | 346 | 615 | 157 | 281 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -17 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 380 PAwOBA .372 → .303 (−69)K% 32.1% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 7.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .372 → .303; ISO .238 → .185; BABIP .357 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 104 PAwOBA .429 → .339 (−90)K% 21.2% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 9.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 9.82% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .429 → .339; ISO .298 → .263; BABIP .316 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 329 PAwOBA .317 → .225 (−92)K% 35.9% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.87% | ÷0.994 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷0.980 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.17% | ÷0.950 | ×0.870 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.025 | ×0.850 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.048 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 6.13% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .317 → .225; ISO .174 → .125; BABIP .329 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 375 PAwOBA .275 → .198 (−77)K% 34.4% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.40% | ÷1.029 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.60% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.36% | ÷1.024 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 11.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.18% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.78% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .275 → .198; ISO .173 → .128; BABIP .219 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 200 PAwOBA .384 → .302 (−82)K% 28.0% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.75% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 19.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.38% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 8.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.55% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .302; ISO .228 → .180; BABIP .343 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 76 PAwOBA .385 → .263 (−122)K% 25.0% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.949 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.82% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 26.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.89% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .385 → .263; ISO .127 → .085; BABIP .442 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Pirates Black · 33 PAwOBA .345 → .194 (−151)K% 42.4% → 60.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.42% | ÷1.012 | ×1.440 | — | — | 60.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 19.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.976 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 9.47% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .194; ISO .258 → .141; BABIP .400 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).