Kendry Rojas
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP8.33
SIERA12.16
K%21.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.3%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5055
FB (48%)
SI (8%)
SL (37%)
CH (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 8 | 4 | 24 | 87 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 30.5% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 2.28 | 2.32 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 13 | 11 | 41 | 177 | 46 | 19 | 1 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 0.8% | 3.98 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 20 | 15 | 84 | 351 | 82 | 33 | 8 | 17.3% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 13 | 12 | 63 | 256 | 69 | 14 | 4 | 20.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 2.59 | 3.25 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 19 | 18 | 69 | 312 | 90 | 32 | 7 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.15 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 3 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 22 | — | 22 | 94 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 30 | 123 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 62 | 287 | 1212 | 249 | 124 | 25 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.79 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 86 | 17 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kendry Rojas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 173 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jake Palisch L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.34 | 13.2% | 6.1% | 155 | +0.14 | 3.90 | 198 | 88 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 86 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.88 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.91 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 331 | +1.03 | 3.88 | 455 | 86 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 83 |
| Ian Krol L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.62 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 169 | -0.02 | 2.81 | 344 | 79 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 79 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 78 |
| Steven Okert L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .331 | 3.38 | 23.0% | 16.9% | 145 | -0.79 | 2.51 | 537 | 77 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 77 |
| Brandon Walter L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.51 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .270 | 2.91 | 27.7% | 23.0% | 139 | -0.60 | 2.89 | 391 | 77 |
| Alberto Baldonado L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 20.3% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .354 | 4.27 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 144 | +0.17 | 2.47 | 386 | 76 |
| Tyler Samaniego L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 1.2% | .150 | 3.19 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 91 | -0.24 | 2.63 | 139 | 75 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.37 | 3.70 | 332 | 75 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 75 |
| Fraser Ellard L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.26 | 19.2% | 14.6% | 1.7% | .367 | 3.66 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.91 | 199 | 74 |
| Kolton Ingram L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.68 | 14.8% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .311 | 3.59 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.09 | 3.35 | 239 | 72 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 72 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 72 |
| Mason Fluharty L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.31 | 25.9% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 204 | 72 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$5M | ||