Kendry Rojas — OGILVIE

Kendry Rojas P St. Paul Saints

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.3 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94103vR 111

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%21.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL2050

CMD4050

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

FB (58%)

SI (14%)

SL (28%)

CH (15%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	8	4	24	87	39	5	1	50%	3.0	30.5%	7.2%	23.3%	1.6%	2.28	2.32	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	8	4	24	87	39	5	1	50%	3.0	44.8%	5.7%	39.1%	1.1%	2.28	0.99	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	41	177	46	19	1	85%	3.1	18.3%	12.9%	5.4%	0.8%	3.98	3.64	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	41	177	46	19	1	85%	3.1	26.0%	10.7%	15.3%	0.6%	3.98	2.56	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	20	15	84	351	82	33	8	75%	4.2	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	2.3%	3.75	4.32	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	20	15	84	351	82	33	8	75%	4.2	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	2.3%	3.75	4.32	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	20	15	84	351	82	33	8	75%	4.2	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	2.3%	3.75	3.56	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	63	256	69	14	4	92%	4.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	2.1%	2.59	3.26	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	63	256	69	14	4	92%	4.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	2.1%	2.59	3.26	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	12	63	256	69	14	4	92%	4.8	27.0%	5.5%	21.5%	1.6%	2.59	2.40	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	18	69	312	90	32	7	95%	3.6	21.4%	10.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	18	69	312	90	32	7	95%	3.6	21.4%	10.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.16	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	18	69	312	90	32	7	95%	3.6	28.8%	10.3%	18.6%	2.2%	4.70	3.20	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	4	30	130	34	22	2	33%	2.5	26.2%	16.9%	9.2%	1.5%	3.34	3.91	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	25	11	65	275	70	34	5	44%	2.6	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.18	3.69	+0.7
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	25	11	65	275	70	34	5	44%	2.6	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.18	3.69	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIN	1	1	1	7	2	2	0	100%	1.3	28.6%	28.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.31	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	MIN	12	6	34	138	34	10	3	50%	2.8	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	2.2%	3.18	3.13	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	MIN	12	4	30	130	34	22	2	33%	2.5	26.2%	16.9%	9.2%	1.5%	3.34	3.88	+0.2
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	MIN	12	4	30	130	34	22	2	33%	2.5	26.2%	16.9%	9.2%	1.5%	3.34	3.88	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.08	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	MIN	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.08	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	73	309	77	37	6	—	—	25.0%	12.1%	12.9%	1.9%	3.28	3.73	+0.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	38	160	77	37	6	—	—	48.5%	23.4%	25.1%	3.7%	6.35	4.03	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	92	389	88	40	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.36	4.30	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	93	394	91	38	10	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.6%	13.3%	2.6%	4.26	4.20	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	93	394	91	37	10	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.6%	4.21	4.18	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	92	388	90	37	10	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	89	377	86	36	11	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.30	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	85	360	82	36	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.44	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	338	76	34	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.61	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	88	372	84	38	10	100%	5.5	22.7%	10.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.31	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	89	376	86	36	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.6%	13.3%	2.6%	4.27	4.21	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	89	376	87	36	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.22	4.19	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	87	367	85	35	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	85	359	82	35	10	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	81	342	78	34	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	76	321	72	33	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	3.2%	4.53	4.62	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	104	632	2673	615	271	73	87%	5.3	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.27	3.94	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	846	195	86	23	87%	5.3	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	2.7%	4.27	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		98	71	345	1458	304	147	31	72%	3.5	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.55	3.78	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	845	176	85	18	72%	3.5	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.55	3.78	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendry Rojas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.4%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.23	22.9%	13.1%	279	-0.27	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	73
Matt Strahm L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	24.5%	9.6%	3.4%	.242	3.79	24.7%	16.6%	235	-0.29	1.68	757	71
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	70
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	70
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	69
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	69
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	68
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	68
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	68
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	67
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	67
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	66
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	66
Matthew Liberatore L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.314	4.28	21.0%	13.8%	381	+0.17	3.05	893	66
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	65
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	65
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	65
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	65
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	89	22.6%	9.7%	1.08	4.33
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36