Wilber Dotel

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+PIT	25	25	106	5.33	5.20	22.8%	11.6%	—	K 17.6% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.12
2025	22	AAPIT	27	27	126	4.15	3.49	24.5%	8.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.48
2026	23	MIX3 levels	36	7	81	4.32	3.26	22.3%	8.8%	1.3	K 20.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.49
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	14	14	81	4.22	4.14	23.0%	9.3%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBPIT	19	19	109	4.04	3.98	23.3%	9.0%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPIT	18	18	109	4.01	3.97	23.4%	8.8%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs61

K%52

Whiff%47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsMason Miller (age 24) · Casey Legumina (age 24) · Tylor Megill (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.22

FIP4.14

K%23.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

FB+0.5 (47%)

CT (24%)

SI (2%)

CH (7%)

SL-1.6 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$8M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
Totals		$10M		$27M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	17.3%	16.8%	0.5%	2.2%	3.34	4.98	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	25.4%	13.4%	11.9%	1.5%	3.34	3.50	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	1.0%	3.49	4.03	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	23.2%	15.2%	7.9%	0.6%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	12.4%	15.0%	-2.6%	1.2%	3.09	4.59	—
2023	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.1%	0.9%	3.09	3.80	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	4.5%	5.33	5.20	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	2.6%	4.15	3.49	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.9%	4.32	3.49	+1.0
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.9%	4.32	3.49	+1.0
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	22.3%	8.8%	13.6%	1.7%	4.32	3.26	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	2	42	182	41	15	3	9%	1.9	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	1.6%	4.46	3.15	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	14	14	81	342	79	32	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	114	483	112	43	13	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.6%	4.15	4.09	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	114	483	113	43	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	476	111	42	13	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.13	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	109	462	107	42	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.0%	14.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.22	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	104	441	99	41	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.38	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	98	415	91	39	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.47	4.58	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	109	460	107	41	11	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.4%	4.04	3.98	+1.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	109	460	108	41	11	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	2.5%	4.01	3.97	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	107	452	105	40	11	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.5%	4.02	4.02	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	104	439	102	39	11	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.0%	14.2%	2.6%	4.06	4.10	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	99	418	94	38	12	100%	6.2	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	2.8%	4.18	4.26	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	86	37	12	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.45	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	106	664	2805	643	253	71	84%	5.3	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	2.5%	4.13	3.70	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	845	194	76	21	84%	5.3	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	2.5%	4.13	3.70	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		131	88	460	1996	353	236	58	67%	3.5	17.7%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	4.16	4.70	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	867	153	103	25	67%	3.5	17.7%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	4.16	4.70	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilber Dotel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	23.0%	9.3%	2.6%	—	4.10	23.3%	14.4%	342	-0.04	—	—	—
Mason Miller R 2023 · 3.12 FIP	24	SP-	3.12	27.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.265	1.54	44.6%	35.5%	197	-1.58	0.85	230	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	76
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	71
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.58	24.3%	11.9%	195	+0.39	3.19	290	71
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	71
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	70
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	70
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	70
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	70
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	70
Zack Kelly R 2019 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP-	3.55	20.3%	9.6%	1.7%	.336	2.74	29.0%	18.8%	109	-0.81	2.45	393	69
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	69
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	69
Max Scherzer R 2008 · 2.98 FIP	24	SW	2.98	27.8%	8.4%	2.1%	.295	3.84	22.4%	14.6%	561	+0.86	2.13	3,078	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	69
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	69
Trey Gibson R 2024 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	22.7%	11.7%	1.0%	.310	3.93	22.4%	12.9%	252	+0.71	3.22	344	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	97	22.9%	9.1%	1.06	4.23
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Red Munger ('43-'56, 15 WAR*)	6.1	123	21.2%*	8.8%*	0.97*	4.11*
David Palmer ('78-'89, 12 WAR*)	5.4	136	21.5%*	9.3%*	0.96*	4.30*