Jackson Jobe

P Detroit Tigers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX4 levels	23	21	96	2.26	3.04	25.1%	11.8%	2.2	K 21.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.49
2025	23	MLBDET	10	10	49	4.22	5.02	17.9%	12.4%	-0.1
2026	24	MIX5 levels	14	14	61	3.38	3.34	26.4%	7.8%	1.2	K 26.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	25	MLBDET	16	16	92	4.11	4.25	26.4%	9.2%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBDET	16	16	99	4.05	4.06	27.2%	9.0%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBDET	16	16	97	4.09	4.11	26.8%	9.0%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.035First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Ext$7M2031Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%73

xwOBA vs60

Whiff%50

CompsShohei Ohtani (age 24) · Landon Knack (age 25) · Dylan DeLucia (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.11

FIP4.25

K%26.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.2%

Proj IP92

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6570

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

SL+0.8 (31%)

SI (13%)

CU (8%)

FB-2.2 (44%)

CH-3.8 (17%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	4.5%	3.84	5.41	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	77	333	81	30	14	100%	3.7	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	4.2%	3.84	4.52	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	24.7%	3.1%	21.7%	5.3%	2.81	4.30	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	64	258	84	6	9	100%	4.0	32.6%	2.3%	30.2%	3.5%	2.81	2.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+1.6
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	0.9%	2.26	3.49	+1.6
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	21	96	391	98	46	4	91%	4.2	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	1.0%	2.26	3.04	+2.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	-0.1
2025	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.4%	4.22	5.00	-0.1
2025	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	10	10	49	218	39	27	7	100%	4.9	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.2%	4.22	5.02	-0.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	3.8%	3.38	4.00	+0.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	3.8%	3.38	4.00	+0.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	5 levels	14	14	61	258	68	20	7	100%	4.4	26.4%	7.8%	18.6%	2.7%	3.38	3.34	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	19	99	427	92	44	14	90%	4.7	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.91	4.41	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	DET	16	16	92	388	103	36	13	100%	5.8	26.4%	9.2%	17.2%	3.3%	4.11	4.25	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	104	439	119	40	15	100%	6.1	27.2%	9.0%	18.2%	3.3%	4.13	4.14	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	102	432	116	39	14	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.0%	17.8%	3.3%	4.17	4.19	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	99	419	111	38	14	100%	5.8	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.4%	4.24	4.28	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	95	400	103	37	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.4%	3.6%	4.36	4.44	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	376	94	36	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.6%	15.5%	3.8%	4.53	4.64	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	83	351	85	35	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.9%	14.3%	4.0%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	325	83	31	14	100%	5.9	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	4.2%	4.81	4.86	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	99	418	114	38	13	100%	6.2	27.2%	9.0%	18.2%	3.2%	4.05	4.06	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	97	410	110	37	13	100%	6.1	26.8%	9.0%	17.8%	3.2%	4.09	4.11	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	94	397	105	36	13	100%	5.9	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.3%	4.16	4.20	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	90	380	98	35	13	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.3%	16.4%	3.4%	4.28	4.36	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	85	359	90	34	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.6%	15.5%	3.6%	4.44	4.55	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	79	334	81	33	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.9%	14.3%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	79	29	12	100%	6.1	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	4.1%	4.71	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	122	716	3033	768	287	104	98%	5.8	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.26	4.05	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	214	80	29	98%	5.8	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.26	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		84	82	347	1458	317	146	49	98%	4.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.4%	3.19	4.39	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	840	183	84	28	98%	4.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.4%	3.19	4.39	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Jobe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	26.4%	9.2%	3.3%	—	4.20	26.8%	17.8%	306	-0.05	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	77
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	74
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	72
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	71
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	71
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	70
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	70
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	70
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	70
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	69
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	69
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	68
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	68
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	68
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	68
Clarke Schmidt R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	25.4%	7.6%	3.5%	.313	3.40	23.9%	16.4%	335	-0.41	2.77	537	68
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	84	25.5%	9.4%	1.38	4.31
Ed Head ('40-'46, 4 WAR*)	2.3	93	23.8%*	8.8%*	1.24*	4.32*
Dave Danforth ('11-'25, 7 WAR*)	5.9	119	23.6%*	8.9%*	1.43*	4.46*
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Carl Fischer ('30-'37, 7 WAR*)	4.1	118	23.9%*	9.4%*	1.18*	4.43*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20