Pierce Coppola — OGILVIE

Pierce Coppola P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 23 LHP 6'8" / 245 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%21.9%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3050

CTRL3040

CMD2030

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	2	8	38	14	9	0	67%	2.7	36.8%	23.7%	13.2%	0.0%	2.25	2.99	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	2	8	38	14	9	0	67%	2.7	36.8%	23.7%	13.2%	0.0%	2.25	2.99	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	2	8	38	14	9	0	67%	2.7	36.8%	23.7%	13.2%	0.0%	2.25	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	17	75	316	86	36	6	89%	4.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	2.4%	3.46	4.37	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	17	75	316	86	36	6	89%	4.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	2.4%	3.46	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CHC	10	10	40	164	57	22	1	100%	4.0	34.8%	13.4%	21.3%	0.6%	3.60	2.20	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	9	7	35	152	29	14	5	78%	3.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.3%	3.31	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	76	319	72	42	9	100%	5.4	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.86	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	323	74	40	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	323	75	40	10	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.69	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	75	318	74	39	10	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.72	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	73	309	71	38	10	100%	6.1	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	295	67	37	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.93	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	66	277	62	36	10	100%	6.0	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	3.5%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	32	135	31	18	4	100%	5.3	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	2.8%	4.86	4.80	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	51	215	50	27	6	100%	5.7	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.67	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	60	32	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	2.8%	4.66	4.63	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	63	33	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	2.9%	4.65	4.66	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	65	274	64	34	8	100%	5.9	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.71	4.74	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	61	34	8	100%	6.3	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.86	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	57	33	8	100%	6.0	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	3.3%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	397	1675	385	210	50	100%	5.9	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.39	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	106	25	100%	5.9	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		22	19	83	354	79	51	8	86%	3.8	22.2%	14.4%	7.8%	2.1%	3.35	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	46	200	850	188	123	18	86%	3.8	22.2%	14.4%	7.8%	2.1%	3.35	4.22	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pierce Coppola (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	21.9%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.76	23.0%	10.4%	229	-0.32	—	—	—
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	77
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	76
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	75
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	75
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	74
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	74
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	74
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	74
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	73
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	73
Gabriel Castellanos L 2016 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP	4.49	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	.348	3.41	15.3%	2.7%	26	-1.08	3.41	108	73
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	22.9%	12.7%	1.19	4.83
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41