Miguel Bleis

RF Portland Sea Dogs
Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420A+/A2 orgs429.220/.304/.354113840—.173/.239/.275
202521AA/A+BOS443.222/.301/.385142736—.169/.222/.288
202622AABOS353.235/.292/.394131459—.207/.252/.330
2027PROJMLE23MLBBOS4.206/.255/.3310059-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB24MLBBOS98.211/.262/.3463366-0.2
2029PROJ45% MLB25MLBBOS161.214/.267/.3555570-0.3
Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Speed64
Whiff%59
ISO56
K%56
Z-Con%39
wOBA30
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%
CompsJase Bowen (age 23) · Brayan Buelvas (age 22) · P.J. Hilson (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .255 / .331
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%5
BABIP263
ISO112
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202117 ROKDSL BOS Red — 136119 30614 12253 74 252336420756 168283 189 334 21 — — — — — —
202218 ROKFCL Red Sox — 167153 461445 10453 183 301355542898 242394 276 388 49 — — — — — —
202319 ASalem Red Sox — 142126 29331 10381 114 230292325617 95304 277 270 35 — — — — — —
202420 A+Greenville Drive — 234210 40607 18544 223 190267319586 129219 238 266 22 — — — — — —
202420 ASalem Red Sox — 195171 441014 21383 167 257349398746 140310 1911 338 61 — — — — — —
202521 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 118110 23601 6312 72 209263291554 82282 265 254 24 — — — — — —
202521 A+Greenville Drive — 325287 6515113 35752 204 226315422736 195260 2311 327 40 — — — — — —
202622 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 353327 7713013 20836 143 235292394686 159277 246 307 59 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202117 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 136122 19411 9303 74 156231230461 74181 227 199 21 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 167157 30734 6653 183 191235350585 159279 394 240 49 — — — — — —
202319 A MLESalem Red Sox — 142129 24231 7531 114 186234271505 85272 375 220 35 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 234216 32406 12744 223 148207250457 102183 325 200 22 — — — — — —
202420 A MLESalem Red Sox — 195177 36713 15553 167 203277305582 102274 288 259 61 — — — — — —
202521 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 118112 20401 4392 72 179220241461 62265 333 204 24 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 325302 5010110 201052 204 166222305527 139210 326 228 40 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 353333 6911010 141016 143 207252330582 123266 294 255 59 — — — — — —
202117 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 136122 19411 9303 74 156231230461 74194 227 199 21 — — — — — —
202117 ROK RAWDSL BOS Red — 136119 30614 12253 74 252336420756 168283 189 334 21 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 167157 30734 6653 183 191235350585 159292 394 240 49 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAWFCL Red Sox — 167153 461445 10453 183 301355542898 242394 276 388 49 — — — — — —
202319 A MLESalem Red Sox — 142129 24231 7531 114 186234271505 85287 375 220 35 — — — — — —
202319 A RAWSalem Red Sox — 142126 29331 10381 114 230292325617 95304 277 270 35 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 429393 671119 271287 3810 170237272509 102225 306 227 40 — — — — — —
202420 A+ RAW2 teams — 429381 8416111 39927 3810 220304354659 134261 219 299 40 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 443413 6914110 251444 276 167222278500 111227 336 222 36 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAW2 teams — 443397 8821114 411064 276 222301385686 164266 249 308 36 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 353333 6911010 141016 143 207252330582 123266 294 255 59 — — — — — —
202622 AA RAWPortland Sea Dogs — 353327 7713013 20836 143 235292394686 159277 246 307 59 — — — — — —
202117 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 136123 19411 9303 74 154231228459 73181 227 199 21 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 167156 30734 6653 183 192235353588 160279 394 240 49 — — — — — —
202319 A MLESalem Red Sox — 142133 24231 7531 114 180234263497 83272 375 220 35 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 429392 671119 271287 3810 171237273509 102224 306 227 40 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 443411 6914110 251444 276 168222280502 112225 336 222 36 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 353330 6911010 141016 143 209252333585 124266 294 255 59 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 429392 671119 271287 3810 171237273509 102224 306 227 40 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE2 teams — 443411 6914110 251444 276 168222280502 112225 336 222 36 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 353330 6911010 141016 143 209252333585 124266 294 255 59 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEBOS 2% 463432 8615112 231315 163 200250323573 123254 285 256 59 -22 +2 +1 -5 +10 -0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXBOS 2% 44 1000 010 00 206255331586 125263 250 262 59 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEBOS 31% 315291 611119 17874 102 205257338595 133257 285 265 66 -13 +1 +1 -3 +7 -0.7
202925 MLB MLEBOS 45% 361334 7012111 20994 113 209262348610 139259 276 272 70 -13 +1 +1 -4 +8 -0.7
202824 MLB CTXBOS 31% 9892 20403 5271 31 211262346608 135266 285 271 66 -4 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.2
202925 MLB CTXBOS 45% 161149 32605 9442 51 214267355623 141269 276 277 70 -6 +1 +1 -2 +3 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 259241 521008 14713 82 216267357624 141270 275 275 50 -10 +1 +1 -3 +6 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650605 13025020 351788 205 215267355623 140268 275 275 50 -24 +2 +2 -7 +14 -1.3
Career— MLE — 25562368 447791160 13576634 14337 189243307550 119248 305 242 50 -36 +3 +3 -9 +19 -2.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650602 11420315 341959 369 189243307551 118250 305 242 50 -26 +2 +2 -7 +14 -1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 353 PAwOBA .298 → .255 (−44)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.51%÷1.000×1.220——28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.67%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0424.13%
HBP% /PA1.70%—×0.850—×1.0421.51%
Singles /BIP20.90%÷1.000×0.970×0.982×1.04220.75%
Doubles /BIP5.33%÷1.000×0.860×0.982×1.0424.69%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.982×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP5.33%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0424.33%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .298 → .255; ISO .159 → .125; BABIP .277 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 325 PAwOBA .320 → .228 (−91)K% 23.1% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷0.936×1.310——32.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷1.050×0.600—×1.0276.32%
HBP% /PA0.62%—×0.770—×1.0270.49%
Singles /BIP16.98%÷0.974×0.870×0.950×1.02714.80%
Doubles /BIP7.08%÷1.099×0.780×0.950×1.0274.90%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.011×0.850×0.950×1.0270.39%
Home runs /BIP6.13%÷1.117×0.880—×1.0274.96%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .320 → .228; ISO .195 → .142; BABIP .260 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 118 PAwOBA .247 → .204 (−43)K% 26.3% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.27%÷0.978×1.220——32.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.08%÷1.055×0.700—×1.0503.54%
HBP% /PA1.69%—×0.850—×1.0501.51%
Singles /BIP20.25%÷0.962×0.970×0.950×1.05020.38%
Doubles /BIP7.59%÷1.109×0.860×0.950×1.0505.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.141×0.950×0.950×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.27%÷1.119×0.780—×1.0500.93%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .247 → .204; ISO .082 → .058; BABIP .282 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 234 PAwOBA .261 → .200 (−61)K% 23.1% → 31.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷0.960×1.310——31.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷0.924×0.600—×1.0425.21%
HBP% /PA1.71%—×0.770—×1.0421.37%
Singles /BIP17.31%÷1.013×0.870×0.961×1.04214.89%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.037×0.780×0.961×1.0422.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.927×0.850×0.961×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP4.49%÷1.043×0.880—×1.0423.95%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .261 → .200; ISO .129 → .102; BABIP .219 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 195 PAwOBA .329 → .259 (−70)K% 19.5% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.49%÷0.948×1.360——27.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0307.57%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.780—×1.0301.24%
Singles /BIP21.80%÷0.989×0.920×0.965×1.03020.17%
Doubles /BIP7.52%÷1.051×0.830×0.965×1.0305.90%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷1.150×0.910×0.965×1.0300.59%
Home runs /BIP3.01%÷0.933×0.800—×1.0302.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .329 → .259; ISO .140 → .109; BABIP .310 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 142 PAwOBA .273 → .220 (−54)K% 26.8% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.76%÷0.982×1.360——37.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.04%÷1.052×0.690—×1.0454.83%
HBP% /PA0.70%—×0.780—×1.0450.57%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.023×0.920×0.958×1.04522.50%
Doubles /BIP3.41%÷0.942×0.830×0.958×1.0453.01%
Triples /BIP3.41%÷1.000×0.910×0.958×1.0453.11%
Home runs /BIP1.14%÷0.999×0.800—×1.0450.95%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .273 → .220; ISO .095 → .078; BABIP .304 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 167 PAwOBA .380 → .240 (−140)K% 26.9% → 38.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.95%÷1.000×1.440——38.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.99%÷1.080×0.620—×1.0223.52%
HBP% /PA1.80%—×0.720—×1.0221.32%
Singles /BIP21.30%÷1.010×0.820×0.952×1.02216.82%
Doubles /BIP12.96%÷1.229×0.720×0.952×1.0227.39%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷0.908×0.720×0.952×1.0222.86%
Home runs /BIP4.63%÷0.943×0.780—×1.0223.91%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .380 → .240; ISO .242 → .153; BABIP .394 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL BOS Red · 136 PAwOBA .330 → .199 (−131)K% 18.4% → 22.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.38%÷1.003×1.220——22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.82%÷1.006×0.700—×1.0226.27%
HBP% /PA2.21%—×0.700—×1.0221.58%
Singles /BIP20.21%÷0.977×0.680×0.970×1.02213.95%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.027×0.600×0.970×1.0223.70%
Triples /BIP1.06%÷0.959×0.600×0.970×1.0220.66%
Home runs /BIP4.26%÷1.790×0.470—×1.0221.14%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 258, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 92, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .330 → .199; ISO .168 → .067; BABIP .283 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).